129
FXUS66 KEKA 032237
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
337 PM PDT WED JUN 3 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK. ENHANCED WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS
THROUGH THE CHANNELED TERRAIN AND HIGHER TERRAIN THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING, SHIFTING TO THE COAST THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD BREEZY
TO GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW
INTERIOR RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REMINDER OF THE WEEK.
- BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS THROUGH THE CHANNELED TERRAIN AND
HIGHER RIDGES TODAY, THEN SHIFTING TO THE COAST ON THURSDAY.
- WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING
FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW RH VALUES PROMOTING
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
- DRY WEATHER THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES (15-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN
MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
DISCUSSION
VISIBLE SATELLITE DEPICTS LOW- TO MID- LEVEL CLOUDS
ACROSS DEL NORTE AND PORTIONS OF NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH, WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
ELSEWHERE. BREEZY WEST- NORTHWEST WILL DEVELOP RAPIDLY ALONG THE
CHANNELED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED RIDGES IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE MOST LIKELY, WITH LOCALLY UP TO AROUND 40
MPH POSSIBLE. MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES WILL SEE BETTER COVERAGE
OF STRONGER WINDS, WHERE THERE IS A HIGH PROBABILITY (60 TO 80%)
FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH. THE COMBINATION OF DRY WEATHER, WARM
TEMPERATURES, AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BRING A LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT FOR PORTIONS OF LAKE COUNTY (SEE FIRE WEATHER
SECTION).
TONIGHT, COASTAL LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP
AROUND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AND VICINITY, WITH BOUTS OF PATCHY
DRIZZLE POSSIBLE INTO THURSDAY.
THURSDAY, A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN. THIS WILL AID IN
REBOUNDING DAYTIME TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY.
HOWEVER, HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR-NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF
THE YEAR. IN ADDITION, WINDS SHIFT TO THE COAST, WITH BREEZY
NORTH- NORTHWEST GUSTS OF 25 TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED OVER THE
COASTAL AND EXPOSED RIDGES. LOCALLY STRONGEST WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE EXPOSED RIDGES IN THE KING RANGE. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS
MIXING AND CLEARING OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON, ALLOWING A MOSTLY
SUNNY DAY, WITH MORE STRATUS REDEVELOPING OVERNIGHT AROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY AND VICINITY.
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, PROMOTING TEMPERATURES COOLING DOWN 5-10 DEGREES.
AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE CWA
ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS.
BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH THE
STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND EXPOSED RIDGES AS
THE PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENING ACROSS THE AREA. GENERALLY GUSTS
FROM 25 TO 35 MPH IS EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THERE
IS A 60-90% CHANCES FOR GUSTS GREATER THAN 35 MPH OVER THE COASTAL
HEADLANDS AND HIGHER TERRAIN. EVEN AT LAKE COUNTY BREEZY TO GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED, WITH POOR RH VALUES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER PREVAILING DRY WEATHER
THROUGH THIS WEEKEND.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST A TROUGHING PATTERN PERSISTING OVER THE
AREA THROUGH MID-NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) OF
LIGHT RAIN RETURN ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE AREA. UNCERTAINTY
REMAIN HIGH REGARDING TO THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE
AREA FOR THIS SYSTEM. /ZVS
AVIATION
LOWER MID-LEVEL CLOUDS AROUND 4000-6000FT ARE QUITE
PERSISTENT TODAY OVER KCEC AS OF 20Z. THIS IS LIKELY A RESULT OF THE
PASSING COLD FRONT, WHICH HAS DEEPENED THE MARINE LAYER AND LIFTED
THE CLOUD DECK. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY AT KCEC UNTIL DUSK
WHEN STRATUS IS PROJECTED TO RETURN. KACV WILL FAIR A BIT BETTER
WITH HIGHER CEILINGS AROUND 5500-8000FT. EVEN WITH OVERCAST SKIES,
THE FLIGHT CATEGORIES HAVE BEEN A PREVAILING VFR FOR BOTH KACV AND
KCEC. OCCASIONAL DROPS IN VISIBILITY WERE THE ONLY THINGS DISRUPTING
VFR EARLIER IN THE AFTERNOON. LATE TONIGHT CEILINGS COULD COME DOWN
BELOW 500-1000FT WITH VISIBILITY OBSCURATIONS BRINGING CATEGORIES
INTO LIFR. PROBABILITIES FOR CLEAR SKIES THURSDAY ARE HIGH WITH
MODELS SHOWING ONLY HUMBOLDT BAY AND EEL RIVER DELTA AREAS WITH
LINGERING STRATUS INTO THE AFTERNOON, ALBEIT LIGHT AND SPARSE AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE BUILDING
ACROSS THE WATERS TODAY BEHIND A WEAK COLD FRONT. ADVISORY LEVEL
WIND GUSTS OF 20-30KTS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WILL SEE FURTHER STRENGTHENING OVERNIGHT. THE GALE
WATCH HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE
(475). A GALE WARNING HAS ALSO BEEN HOISTED FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER
ZONE (455) FOR THURSDAY WHEN STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO WORK
CLOSER TO THE COAST. THE SEA STATE WILL TURN STEEP FROM SHORT PERIOD
SEAS, AND THIS WILL BE THE DOMINANT WAVE GROUP OTHER THAN A SMALL
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL. HAZARDOUS SEAS OR A HIGH END SMALL
CRAFT ADVISORY ARE LIKELY AFTER THE GALE WARNINGS EXPIRE EARLY
FRIDAY MORNING. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN INNER WATERS COULD
BE EXTENDED INTO LATE FRIDAY NIGHT. /EYS
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY WEST- NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DEVELOPED
RAPIDLY ALONG THE CHANNELED TERRAIN AND EXPOSED RIDGES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING, WITH GUSTS OF 20 TO 35 MPH LIKELY. LOCALLY
HIGHER GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE SOUTH IN LAKE COUNTY. DAYTIME RH
RECOVERIES ARE GENERALLY IN THE LOW 20S AND MID 30S PERCENT THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
ON ZONES 419 AND 421 TODAY DUE TO LOW DAYTIME RH IN THE UPPER
TEENS TO LOW 20S PERCENT COMBINE WITH LOCALLY GUSTY WINDS OVER
THE RIDGES. TONIGHT, ONSHORE MARINE MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO
PROMOTE MODERATE TO GOOD RH RECOVERIES FOR AREAS BELOW THE
INVERSION (<2000 FEET).
WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS IS FORECAST EACH AFTERNOON AND
EVENING FRIDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW RH VALUES AND
UNSTABLE WEATHER CONDITIONS. THIS WILL PROMOTE LOCALLY ELEVATED
FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR, ESPECIALLY FOR TRINITY,
EASTERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES HIGHER TERRAIN. DRY WEATHER
WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SUNDAY, WITH CHANCES (15-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN
RETURNING ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. /ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING FROM NOON THURSDAY TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 6 AM PDT
FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 5 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.
GALE WARNING FROM 2 AM THURSDAY TO 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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