971
FXUS66 KEKA 042157
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
257 PM PDT THU JUN 4 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS EXPAND TO THE INTERIOR
FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BRINGING
A FIRE WEATHER THREAT. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTH COAST
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW RH VALUES PROMOTING LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
- CHANCE FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTH COAST MONDAY.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL DRIVE SOUTHWARD FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WHICH IS EXPECTED TO COOL TEMPERATURES 5
TO 10 DEGREES. AN ASSOCIATED WEAK COLD FRONT WILL TRACK SOUTHWARD
ACROSS THE CWA ON FRIDAY, PROMOTING WIDESPREAD BREEZY WEST-
NORTHWEST WINDS. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND, WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND
EXPOSED RIDGES. GENERALLY GUSTS FROM 25 TO 35 MPH ARE EXPECTED,
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS. THERE IS A 60-90% CHANCES FOR GUSTS
GREATER THAN 35 MPH OVER THE COASTAL HEADLANDS AND HIGHER TERRAIN.
EVEN LOWER ELEVATIONS OF LAKE COUNTY COULD SEE GUSTS OF UP TO 30
MPH, AND WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES, ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION FOR
MORE DETAILS.
ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SUGGEST A TROUGHING PATTERN OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MID-NEXT WEEK. PRECIPITATION CHANCES (15-30%) OF LIGHT RAIN RETURN
ON MONDAY AND GRADUALLY DIMINISH ON TUESDAY. THE HIGHEST CHANCES FOR
RAIN ARE FOR COASTAL HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE, BUT SOME SPRINKLES ARE
POSSIBLE FOR MUCH OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. UNCERTAINTY REMAIN HIGH
REGARDING TO THE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION OVER THE AREA FOR THIS
SYSTEM. /ZVS/JB
AVIATION
MARINE LAYERS CLOUDS HAVE NEARLY DISSIPATED AS OF THIS
WRITING AS NORTHERLY FLOW MIXES IN DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION.
WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 25 KT WILL BE POSSIBLE AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING WITH A VERY TIGHT PRESSURE
GRADIENT OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. A TROUGH APPROACHING THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT OVERNIGHT
INTO FRIDAY ALLOWING THE NORTH WINDS TO WEAKEN. THUS, LESS GUSTY
CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS MAY ALSO ALLOW THE
COASTAL CLOUDS TO BE A LITTLE MORE PERSISTENT FRIDAY IN THE
HUMBOLDT BAY AREA. RPA
MARINE
NORTH WINDS ARE CURRENTLY MODERATE TO STRONG OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS WITH NEAR-GALE TO GALE FORCE WINDS EXPECTED SOUTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP WIND WAVES OF 10 TO 12 FT ARE POSSIBLE
SOUTH OF THE CAPE, EVEN NEARSHORE. FARTHER NORTH SEAS WILL BE A
LITTLE SMALLER WHERE THE UPWIND FETCH IS SHORTER. OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY THE WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE AS
A TROUGH APPROACHES THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST CAUSING THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TO WEAKEN. THIS TROUGH WILL MOVE PAST THE WEST COAST OVER
THE WEEKEND ONLY TO BE REINFORCED BY ANOTHER TROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK. THIS WILL CAUSE WINDS TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND POTENTIALLY
BRIEFLY TURN OUT OF THE SOUTH MONDAY. OVERALL, THIS WILL CAUSE
IMPROVED CONDITIONS AND MUCH LOWER SEAS EARLY NEXT WEEK. RPA
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN INTERIOR
AREAS EACH AFTERNOON FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THESE WINDS
COMBINED WITH LOW AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL PROMOTE
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. WHILE THE STRONGEST WINDS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE RIDGES WHERE AFTERNOON GUSTS COULD PEAK OVER 30 MPH,
LOWER ELEVATIONS COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON. IN
THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (TRINITY, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND
LAKE COUNTIES), AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S FRIDAY AFTERNOON. TERRAIN CHANNELING IN LAKE
COUNTY, ESPECIALLY, WILL BRING LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. COOLER TEMPERATURES,
SLIGHTLY HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY, AND SLIGHTLY LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS, BUT STILL AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT IS EXPECTED. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY OF NEXT WEEK. /JB/ZVS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 6 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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