220
FXUS66 KEKA 052147
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
247 PM PDT FRI JUN 5 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH NEAR-NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. BREEZY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TODAY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE INTERIOR
BRINGING ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. LIGHT RAIN IS POSSIBLE
MONDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
- WIDESPREAD BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON AND EVENING FRIDAY
AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH LOW RH VALUES PROMOTING LOCALLY
ELEVATED FIRE CONDITIONS ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
- RAIN LIKELY MONDAY, MAINLY IN THE NORTH.
DISCUSSION
A WEAK FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ARE MOVING INTO
OREGON AND WASHINGTON. THE FAR SOUTHERN END OF THIS FRONT MAY
BRING A FEW CLOUDS TO THE AREA TONIGHT. THIS WILL ALSO BRING
BREEZY WINDS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY. WINDS WILL
DIMINISH AND TEMPERATURES MAY WARM SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE. IT IS POSSIBLE CLOUDS WILL
RETURN TO THE COASTAL AREAS, BUT AT THIS POINT NOT EXPECTED.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON
MONDAY. MODELS ARE SLOWLY COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT THAT
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES WILL SEE SOME RAIN ON MONDAY. SOME
OF THE ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW LOWER AMOUNTS, AND THEY ALSO
DIFFER ON HOW FAR SOUTH AND EAST THIS WILL GO. CURRENT NBM
PROBABILITIES OF A WETTING RAIN (0.1 INCHES) RAPIDLY DIMINISH YOU
GO INTO INTERIOR MENDOCINO COUNTY AS WELL AS TRINITY AND LAKE
COUNTY. THERE ARE ALSO SOME DISCREPANCIES IN TIMING ON THE
MODELS, BUT THE BEST CHANCES ARE EXPECTED TO MONDAY AND MONDAY
NIGHT.
TUESDAY THERE MAY BE SOME LINGERING CLOUDS AND SHOWERS AROUND WITH
FAIRLY COOL TEMPERATURES. HIGHS MAY ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S. TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WILL LIKELY BE THE
CHILLIEST MORNING WITH SOME OF THE COLDEST SPOTS DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S. AT THIS POINT FROST IS NOT EXPECTED, BUT IT IS NOT OUT
OF THE QUESTION FOR COLD SPOTS LIKE RUTH AND HAYFORK.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO
THE WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE 90S ARE EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD BY
FRIDAY ACROSS THE INLAND AREAS. WARMING IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
INTO THE WEEKEND. MKK
AVIATION
CLEAR SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS
NORTHWEST CA. BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE ALSO OCCURRING ACROSS MUCH
OF THE AREA. TONIGHT A FRONT MOVING BY NORTH OF THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO BRING SOME CLOUDS, BUT AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN MAINLY VFR. HAVE ADDED SCT LOW CLOUD DECKS
TO HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LOWER CIGS. BEHIND
THE FRONT ON SATURDAY CLEAR AND BREEZY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
AGAIN. MKK
MARINE
STRONG TO GALE FORCE WINDS CONTINUE IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS THIS EVENING, MAINLY IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP
WIND DRIVEN WAVES HAVE BUILD TO 8 TO 12 FEET IN THESE AREAS. AREAS
FARTHER NORTH ARE SEEING WINDS AROUND 15 KT. THESE WINDS MAY
DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT AS A WEAK FRONT MOVES BY AND THEN
INCREASE AGAIN BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE FRONT. THE
SOUTHERN WATERS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO NEAR GALE FORCE AGAIN
ON SATURDAY. THERE MAY BE SOME GALE FORCE GUSTS, BUT THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO MAINLY IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND DRIVEN WAVES THERE IS A 12 SECOND SWELL
AROUND 5 FEET. THIS IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS.
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE AREA.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO QUICKLY DIMINISH SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME
SOUTHERLY ON MONDAY. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
HOW STRONG THESE SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GET. SOME OF THE MODELS ARE
SHOWING CLOSE TO GALE FORCE, BUT OTHER ARE SHOWING 10 TO 15 KT. SO
THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER. A LOT OF THIS
WILL DEPEND ON WHERE THE SURFACE LOW TRACKS. BEHIND THE FRONT ON
TUESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN. AT THIS
POINT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL INCREASE GRADUALLY ON TUESDAY, BUT
MOST MODELS AGREE THEY WILL EXCEED 20 TO 25 KT BY TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. ALSO ON TUESDAY A POST FRONTAL SWELL LOOKS LIKE IT MAY
BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET AT 9 SECONDS, BUT AGAIN CONFIDENCE IS LOW
ON THIS. STRONGER NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR
THE REST OF THE WEEK. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
GUSTY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN
INTERIOR AREAS EACH AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY. LOWER ELEVATIONS
COULD SEE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WILL
COOL ON SATURDAY WITH MOST AREAS STAYING IN THE 70S. THIS WILL
KEEP THE RH SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN TODAY. IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS
OF THE AREA (TRINITY, EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND LAKE COUNTIES),
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE 20S
SATURDAY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HIGHER WINDS IN LAKE COUNTY, WHERE
FINE FUELS ARE RELATIVELY DRY, IS EXPECTED TO BRING LOCALLY
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SUNDAY, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
BE LIGHTER, BUT STILL BREEZY WITH GUSTS UP TO 20 TO 25 MPH. RHS
ARE LIKELY TO BE LOWER WITH MANY INTERIOR AREAS SEEING RHS IN THE
TEENS AS TEMPERATURES WARM BACK INTO THE LOW 80S. A TROUGH MONDAY
IS EXPECTED TO BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND HIGHER RH TO THE
AREA. THERE IS ALSO THE POTENTIAL FOR A WETTING RAIN.
PROBABILITIES OF A WETTING RAIN RANGE FROM OVER 70 PERCENT IN DEL
NORTE TO LESS THAN A TEN PERCENT CHANCE IN SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY.
MKK/JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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