912
FXUS66 KEKA 072257
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT SUN JUN 7 2026
SYNOPSIS
DRY WEATHER CONTINUES TODAY WITH BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS.
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES IN THE INTERIOR WILL BRING AN ELEVATED FIRE
WEATHER THREAT. RAIN IS LIKELY FOR THE NORTH COAST MONDAY. MUCH
WARMER INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY LATE NEXT WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES, DRY WEATHER, AND BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS
CONTINUE TODAY.
- ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS IN THE INTERIOR WITH LOW
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY.
- RAIN LIKELY MONDAY FOR THE NORTH COAST, WITH THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
- MUCH WARMER WEATHER LIKELY NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
THE EFFECTS OF A TROUGH MOVING THROUGH THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST ARE BEING OBSERVED OVER THE CWA DESPITE IT BARELY GRAZING
PAST US TO THE NORTH. HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CLOUD STRANDS AND VARIOUS
MID-LEVEL ALTOCUMULUS AND ALTOSTRATUS ARE LIKELY TO REFLECT
SHORTWAVE RADIATION BACK OUT TO SPACE, KEEPING TEMPERATURES MILD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON FOR COASTAL AREAS AND INTERIOR AREAS NORTH OF
MENDOCINO COUNTY.
WET WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO RETURN TO PORTIONS OF THE AREA ON MONDAY.
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR GENERALLY LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE
RAIN FOR HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES STARTING LATE MONDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE DAY. TOTAL RAIN AMOUNTS IN DEL NORTE RANGE
FROM JUST UNDER 1" TO LOCALIZED 1.5" OR MORE IN THE MOUNTAINS.
PRECIPITATION DROPS OFF SIGNIFICANTLY FARTHER SOUTH, WITH ONLY
AROUND 0.10" TO 0.50" IN HUMBOLDT AND COASTAL MENDOCINO, AND ONLY A
FEW HUNDREDTHS IN TRINITY AND INTERIOR MENDOCINO. MODELS HAVE
GENERALLY BEEN TRENDING WETTER, AND WESTERLY FLOW COULD SUPPORT
HIGHER RAIN AMOUNTS IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE. SOME HIGH-RES MODELS
ARE SHOWING THIS POSSIBILITY WITH THE REFS SHOWING FAIRLY HIGH
CHANCES (70%) FOR OVER AN INCH OF RAIN FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT. LAKE
COUNTY MAY ONLY SEE A FEW SPRINKLES, IF ANY. SOUTH WINDS MAY BE
BREEZY IN DEL NORTE, ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND COASTAL
HEADLANDS WHERE GUSTS COULD BRIEFLY REACH 30 TO 35 MPH MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO DROP 5 TO 10
DEGREES, WITH 60S OR 70S FORECAST FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS.
THIS FRONT QUICKLY MOVES OUT OF THE AREA TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES
REBOUNDING SLIGHTLY TO THE HIGH 70S. LOW TEMPERATURES TUESDAY
MORNING MAY DROP INTO THE 30S IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS, INCLUDING
HAYFORK AND RUTH. FROST IS CURRENTLY NOT EXPECTED, BUT THIS WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.
WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO START ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL
LIKELY CONTINUE TO TO WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND INTO THE
WEEKEND. INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S AND POSSIBLY INTO THE
TRIPLE DIGITS FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS ARE POSSIBLE BY THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. WARM AND DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE
WEEKEND. JB /EYS
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE IN PLACE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE CURRENTLY NORTHWEST, BUT TONIGHT ARE EXPECTED
TO BECOME SOUTHERLY AS A FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA. IT LOOKS LIKE
CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN VFR UNTIL THE RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT ARRIVES EARLY MONDAY MORNING ON THE NORTH COAST. THIS WILL
GRADUALLY SPREAD SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY BRINGING MVFR CONDITIONS
WITH LOCAL AREAS OF IFR CONDITIONS. MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY
NIGHT. MKK
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE WATERS THIS
AFTERNOON. LOCAL AREAS OF GALE FORCE WINDS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING
SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. FARTHER NORTH WINDS REMAIN AROUND 5 TO 10
KT. ALSO THERE IS A SOUTHWEST SWELL AROUND 3 FEET AT 15 SECONDS
AND A NORTHWEST SWELL AROUND 5 FEET AT 8 OR 9 SECONDS.
TONIGHT WINDS WILL TURN SOUTHERLY THROUGH THE NIGHT. THESE ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 20 TO 25 KT THROUGH THE MORNING NORTH OF
CAPE MENDOCINO AND TO A LESSER AMOUNT FARTHER SOUTH. MONDAY NIGHT
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHERLY ONCE AGAIN AND START TO
INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY. ALSO ON TUESDAY A FRESH NORTHWEST
SWELL IS EXPECTED TO BUILD TO AROUND 7 FEET AT 10 SECONDS. THIS
WILL DIMINISH AND COMBINE WITH THE WIND DRIVE WAVES TUESDAY NIGHT.
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO INCREASE WEDNESDAY WITH GALES
POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ON
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
BREEZY WEST-NORTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY, BUT ARE
EXPECTED TO BE SLIGHTLY LIGHTER THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. GUSTS OF 20 TO
25 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER EXPOSED RIDGES AND IN CHANNELED TERRAIN.
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY IN THE AFTERNOON IS EXPECTED TO DROP INTO
THE TEENS OR 20S FOR THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA (TRINITY,
EASTERN MENDOCINO, AND LAKE COUNTIES). THESE AFTERNOON WINDS ALONG
WITH LOW RHS WILL BRING ELEVATED TO LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS. WETTING RAIN IS VERY LIKELY FOR DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT,
COASTAL MENDOCINO, AND WESTERN TRINITY. PROBABILITIES DROP OFF
FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST TO NEAR ZERO IN LAKE AND SOUTHERN MENDOCINO.
JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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