558
FXUS66 KEKA 120745
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1245 AM PDT FRI JUN 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL WARM QUICKLY WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
- COASTAL STRATUS IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
- POTENTIAL COOLING TREND IN THE INLAND AREAS STARTING ON
WEDNESDAY.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES EXPECTED INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEAR COASTAL
AND COASTAL AREAS MAY START TO SEE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE TRINITY COUNTY IS EXPECTED
TO SEE THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES MONDAY AND TUESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES ARE POSSIBLE STARTING ON WEDNESDAY.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD IN ACROSS THE AREA
AND THE INTERIOR IS EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW HOT DAYS OF THIS
HEATWAVE. A SOUTHERLY SURGE OF CLOUDS COULD MAKE ITS WAY UP TO
UKIAH BUT THE LIKELIHOOD OF THAT DEPENDS ON AVAILABLE MOISTURE AT
LOW LEVELS AND ADVECTED STRATUS INTO THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY AND
ANDERSON VALLEY. THIS WILL LIKELY START TO COOL TEMPERATURES AT
THE IMMEDIATE COAST AND INLAND TO AREAS AS FAR AS BOONVILLE OR SO.
OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL LIKELY DROP INTO THE 50S IN MOST OF THE
VALLEYS, HOWEVER THE RIDGES ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MUCH WARMER,
LIKELY IN THE 70S. THIS WILL INCREASE THE HEAT RISK IN THESE
AREAS.
FOR THE WEEKEND A WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO DROP DOWN
FROM THE NORTH. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME INSTABILITY, BUT
CURRENT MOISTURE PROFILES LOOK LIKE THEY REMAIN TOO DRY FOR ANY
THUNDERSTORMS. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN MORE STEADY
FLUCTUATING SOMEWHERE AROUND 100 IN THE AFTERNOONS. THE WINDS
SOUTHERLY WINDS ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST ARE EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY
INCREASE AND KEEP THE STRATUS IN PLACE. THE HIGH PRESSURE IS
EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MARINE LAYER FAIRLY SHALLOW AND IT MAY MIX
OUT EACH AFTERNOON. SUNDAY IT LOOKS FAIRLY CERTAIN THAT THE
MARINE LAYER WILL BE WELL NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO AS THE WINDS GET
LIGHTER. MONDAY AND TUESDAY HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO THE
STRENGTHEN OVER THE AREA AND IS EXPECTED TO SOME OF THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THIS HEAT WAVE TO TRINITY COUNTY. AREAS CLOSER TO
THE COAST THERE IS MORE UNCERTAINTY AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED AS IT GETS CLOSER.
WEDNESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO START TO BREAK DOWN
AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ALOFT. THIS WILL COOL
TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA AND LIKELY DEEPEN THE MARINE LAYER.
MKK
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
OVERNIGHT WITH MINIMAL CLOUD COVER AS OFFSHORE WIND CONTINUES.
SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS HAVE BECOME THE DOMINANT REGIME AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE DOME EXPANDS OFF THE COAST OF THE PACNW. DIURNAL PATTERNS
WILL CONTINUE WITH WIND GUSTS RETURNING FRIDAY AFTERNOON, AT A
LIGHTER CLIP THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. MODELS HINT AT A FEW HOURS OF
REDUCED VISIBILITY AROUND 12Z OR SO AT KCEC AND KACV. THE
SOUTHERLY PUSH OVERNIGHT COULD PUSH LIGHT FOG OR STRATUS UP THE
VALLEY TOWARDS KUKI BUT MOISTURE IS LACKING WITH THE DRY EASTERLY
WINDS AS A SOURCE. /EYS
MARINE
GALE STRENGTH NORTHERLIES PERSIST THROUGH THE OUTER ZONES
THROUGH SATURDAY. THE SOUTHERN OUTER ZONE WILL HAVE LESS COVERAGE
FRIDAY, MAINLY AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO AND WESTWARD. NORTHERLY WINDS
AND STEEP SEAS WILL CONTINUE ADVISORY CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER
ZONES. STRENGTHENING NORTHERLIES OVER THE NORTHERN OUTER WATERS
FRIDAY WILL BUILD STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP TO 14 FT. THE NORTHERN
INNER WATERS WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED FOR A BRIEF SURGE OF HAZARDOUS
SEAS LATE FRIDAY. CURRENTLY IT LOOKS LIKE THE GALES WILL CONTINUE
BEYOND 10 TO 20 NM NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO ON SATURDAY, THEN START
TO DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND THIS ALLOWS A SOUTHERLY SURGE TO MOVE
NORTHWARD. WINDS ARE GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHTER INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY
INTO EARLY NEXT. OVER THE WEEKEND A SHORTWAVE MOVING DOWN FORM THE
PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE INSTABILITY AND THIS MAY
LEAD TO INCREASED MIXING HEIGHTS. IT DOESN'T LOOK LIKE THERE WILL
BE ENOUGH MOISTURE IN NW CALIFORNIA FOR ANY THUNDERSTORMS, THAT IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WELL EAST AND SOUTH OF THE AREA. EARLY NEXT
WEEK TEMPERATURES MAY CLIMB SLIGHTLY MORE AND THE HOTTEST
TEMPERATURES OF THE HEAT WAVE ARE EXPECTED. WEDNESDAY INTO LATE IN
THE WEEK COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED. THIS MAY ALSO BRING
STRONGER WINDS OR POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS DEPENDING ON HOW THE
PATTERN EVOLVES. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ113-114-118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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