393
FXUS66 KEKA 132256
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
356 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO WARM WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
- COASTAL STRATUS WILL PUSH UP TO COAST LATE SATURDAY, BRINGING
CHANCES FOR MORE PERSISTENT LOW CLOUDS AND FOG ALONG THE COAST
- COOLING TREND IN THE INLAND AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE AREA WITH
HOT TEMPERATURES FORECAST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE NEAR COASTAL
AND COASTAL AREAS MAY START TO SEE MORE MARINE INFLUENCE OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES ARE
FORECAST MONDAY AND TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TRENDING
LOWER MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN ACROSS THE
REGION. HOT DAYTIMES HIGHS WITH WARMER NIGHTS ARE CREATING MODERATE
TO MAJOR HEATRISK OVER THE REGION. THE STRONG NORTHEAST PACIFIC
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY AND NOSE IN FROM THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY
RESULTING IN THE HOTTEST TEMPERATURES. MUCH OF THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
WILL SEE TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO 100. THE WARMEST
INTERIOR VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTY HAVE A CHANCE
(60%) AND ARE FORECAST TO EXCEED 105 MONDAY AND TUESDAY. HEAT
ADVISORIES ARE OUT FOR THE INTERIOR, AND THERE MAY BE FURTHER
EXPANSION SOUTH INTO LAKE COUNTY STARTING MONDAY.
A SUMMER SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE WILL WORK NORTHWARD AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO OVERNIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE STRATUS IS SHALLOW
UNDER THE STRONG RIDGE, AND WEBCAMS HAVE ALREADY SHOWN DENSE FOG
ALONG THE MENDOCINO AND FAR SOUTHERN HUMBOLDT COAST. ONCE IN PLACE
ALONG THE NORTH COAST, THE STRATUS WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT OVER
AT LEAST THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THIS WILL LIKELY HOLD TEMPERATURES
LOWER ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST WHERE AFTERNOON SCATTERING DOES NOT
OCCUR.
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC RIDGE WILL BEGIN BREAKING DOWN LATE TUESDAY OR
WEDNESDAY WHILE BROADER RIDGING REMAINS IN PLACE. TEMPERATURES WILL
ENTER A LOWERING TREND MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK IN RESPONSE. A WEAK
SURGE OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE MAY CLIP THE INTERIOR AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. THIS SETUP WOULD BE FAVORABLE FOR ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD THE MOISTURE MAKE IT THIS FAR WEST.
AVIATION
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH IS GENERATING SOME
SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW ALONG TO MENDOCINO COAST. STRATUS IS OBSERVED
CHARGING UP ALONG THE MENDOCINO COAST AND BEGINNING TO BREACH THE
CORNER AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. WEAK NORTHERLIES AND A SECONDARY
SOUTHERLY EDDY ALONG HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE WILL USHER IN A CLASSIC
SUMMER SOUTHERLY STRATUS SURGE. VISIBLE SATELLITE REVEALS STRONG
CONFORMATION OF THE STRATUS TO THE COAST, IMPLYING A SHALLOW LAYER.
WEBCAMS ALSO SHOW VERY LOW VISIBILITIES AROUND SHELTER COVE,
CONFIRMING FOG, POTENTIALLY DENSE (1/4SM VIS) IS ON THE WAY TO THE
REMAINING COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGH THIS TAF PERIOD. TIMING IS
ALWAYS PROBLEMATIC, WITH UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN IT CAN ROUND THE CAPE,
BUT THE LATEST GUIDANCE TAKES IT NEAR OR CLOSE TO ACV NEAR 9Z-11Z,
AND FARTHER NORTH TO CEC 10Z-12Z. THE STRATUS COULD CERTAINLY
SURGE EARLIER, AS IS USUALLY THE CASE WITH THESE SETUPS.
ONCE THE STRATUS ADVANCES UNDER THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL
INVERSION, IT WILL LIKELY REMAIN LOCKED IN FOR A BIT WITH SMALLER
WINDOWS OF AFTERNOON IMPROVEMENT FOR SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY AGAIN
MONDAY. SOUTHERLY FLOW THROUGH THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY WILL ALSO
DIRECT A SHALLOW STRATUS LAYER TOWARDS UKI THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. HRRR SOUNDINGS SATURATE THE LOWER LEVELS, AND THERE IS A
CONDITIONAL 30% CHANCE FOR LIFR CIGS SUNDAY MORNING AT UKI.
SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT OVERNIGHT AND THROUGH SUNDAY OVER
NORTHERN CA.
MARINE
A WEAK DISTURBANCE TO THE SOUTH IS QUICKLY WEAKENING THE
NORTHERLIES AND IS GENERATING NEAR SHORE SOUTHERLY WINDS. NORTHERLY
WINDS LINGER SLIGHTLY LONGER OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF THE NORTHERLY
WATERS, KEEPING LARGER STEEP SEAS IN THE WATERS INTO SUNDAY. LOW
CLOUDS AND FOG, LOCALLY DENSE WILL BE MAKING ITS WAY UP THE COAST
OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY DENSE FOG WILL LIKELY REMAIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE WATERS THROUGH SUNDAY AND PERHAPS MONDAY. WINDS WILL TURN
GENTLE BY LATE SUNDAY MORNING, OTHER THAN SOME ACCELERATED
SOUTHERLIES AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS ARE
EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY. NORTHERLIES RETURN LATE MONDAY AND
STRENGTHEN THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK, WITH GALE CONDITIONS LIKELY IN
PORTIONS OF THE WATERS. A SMALL AROUND 2 FT LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY
SWELL WITH A PERIOD UP TO 24 SECONDS WILL ARRIVE MONDAY.
FIRE WEATHER
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN HOT AND DRY THROUGH EARLY
NEXT WEEK. AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES HAVE BEEN OBSERVED
DROPPING INTO THE LOW TEENS TO SINGLE DIGITS IN THE WARMER INTERIOR
VALLEYS. A WARM THERMAL BELT WILL KEEP RECOVERIES POOR OVER THE
HIGHER RIDGES. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND
TERRAIN DRIVEN. EXPECT A STRONGER WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY WIND
SURGE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. SIMILAR ENHANCED DIURNAL WINDS ARE LIKELY
INTO MID NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE COOLER BY MIDDLE
TO LATE NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR MONSOONAL MOISTURE TO
CLIP THE AREA AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. IF THE MOISTURE DOES MAKE IT
THIS FAR WEST, THERE WILL BE OPPORTUNITY FOR ELEVATED
THUNDERSTORMS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLIGHTLY MORE FAVORABLE TO THIS
SOLUTION IN RECENT RUNS.
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED FROM
SATURDAY, JUNE 13 THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA. HIGH TIDES AROUND 8.8 FT WILL CAUSE COASTAL FLOODING
AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW- LYING ROADS
NEAR ARCATA BOTTOMS. /JJW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-116.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
PDT TONIGHT FOR CAZ103.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ108-111-117.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ113-114-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO MIDNIGHT
PDT TONIGHT FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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