831
FXUS66 KEKA 140701 CCA
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1152 PM PDT SAT JUN 13 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL BEGIN TO
SEE INCREASE MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK
DOWN LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN TO PEAK WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- SHALLOW MARINE INFLUENCE GROWING ALONG SHORE MAY HELP SUPPRESS SOME
TEMPERATURES.
- COOLING TREND FOR INLAND AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS HUMBOLDT
AND TRINITY COUNTIES SUNDAY AND INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE, THOUGH NOT RECORD BREAKING. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL SLIGHTLY WEAKEN IN LAKE AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES
SUNDAY THANKS TO INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE BEING PULLED UPWARD IN
SOUTHERLY WIND OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, INTERIOR VALLEYS FOR THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA WILL MOST LIKELY CREST OVER 100 TODAY
WITH THE HOTTEST VALLEYS HAVING A 50% CHANCE OF TOUCHING 105. THESE
TEMPERATURES CONSTITUTE A GENERALLY MODERATE HEATRISK WITH SOME
AREAS OF MAJOR RISK FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS. SHALLOW MARINE
INFLUENCE MAY BRING A FEW HOURS OF CLOUDS TOT HE COAST AROUND
SUNRISE, BUT OTHERWISE CLEAR SKIES WILL CONTINUE TO PROMOTE HIGHS
NEAR 70 ALONG SHORE, THOUGH AFTERNOONS EA BREEZE WILL BRING A QUICK
END TO ANY STRONG WARMING.
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY. COME TUESDAY, HEAT
WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA, BUT
WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE FURTHER SOUTH WILL PUSH HEATRISK BACK
TOWARD MAJOR IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, LIKELY BRINGING ANOTHER
NEED FOR HEAT ADVISORIES IN THOSE AREAS AROUND TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INTERIOR
HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE MID 80S. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE AROUND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
DEFINITELY COOL CONDITIONS AND HELP DEEPEN MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG
SHORE, CREATING A MORE PERSISTENT AND FURTHER REACHING MARINE LAYER.
MOST MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE TROUGH IS TOO WEAK TO TAP INTO ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS OR VERY WEAK STORMS COULD BE
LIKELY, CURRENTLY PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. /JHW
AVIATION
DRY AIR AND HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUE TO SUPPORT VFR
CONDITIONS ALL ACROSS THE AREA. THERE IS AS OF EARLY SUNDAY MORNING
A VERY SHALLOW LAYER OF MARINE FOG TRAPPED ALONG SHORE SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. SOUTHERLY WINDS OVERNIGHT MIGHT BE ABLE TO PUSH THE FOG
INTO THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY AND NORTH ALONG SHORE BY SUNRISE, BUT
OVERALL CHANCES ARE LOW (LESS THAN 35%) OF LIFR OR IFR CONDITIONS.
ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY SCATTER DURING THE DAY BACK TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH MARINE INFLUENCE MORE LIKELY TO PUSH ONSHORE SUNDAY NIGHT. /JHW
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BROADENING OVER THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THE NEARSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
WEAKEN SUNDAY WITH CALM TO GENTLE WINDS IN ALL WATERS THROUGH AT
LEAST MONDAY. SEA WILL ALSO FALL WITH ALL SHORT PERIOD SEAS FALLING
BELOW 6 FEET BY MID SUNDAY MORNING. BEYOND WIND WAVES,A MINOR
SOUTHERLY SWELL NO MORE THAN 3 FEET WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT THE
WATERS.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP
RESTRENGTHEN NORTH WINDS MID WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL FIRST BUILD IN
THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THEN SPREAD SOUTH, THE THE SOUTHERN INNER
WATERS ESPECIALLY WILL LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CALM. NEAR GALE
CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR OUTER NORTHERN WATERS BY WEDNESDAY.
SHORT PERIOD SEA WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS AND DOMINATE THE SEA STATE.
/JHW
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING HEAT WAVE HAS HELPED RAPIDLY DRY FUELS.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHING NEAR 100 WITH RH
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY HAS ALSO
BEEN POOR WITH THERMAL BELTS WITH MID AND UPPER ELEVATION NIGHTTIME
RH ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. ERC HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH MOST RAW STATIONS LIKELY TO REACH NEAR THE THE
PERCENTILE BY MIDWEEK, EVEN CLOSE TO SHORE. THAT SAID, THE GENERAL
LACK OF WIND WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE RISK OF ANY FAST MOVING
FIRES. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS,
HOWEVER, CURRENTLY SHOW MOISTURE PROFILES INSUFFICIENT TO REALLY
DRIVE CONVECTION. CURRENT THUNDER CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NE TRINITY COUNTY. THAT SAID, ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE DRY
GIVEN THE SETUP AND PRECEDING CONDITIONS. /JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED FROM
SATURDAY, JUNE 13 THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
WITH THE HIGHEST TIDE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. HIGH TIDES
PEAKED AROUND 9 FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAKENED NORTH WINDS AND
HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL TIDE WILL LIKELY PUSH THE TIDE EVEN SLIGHTLY
HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT NEAR 9.1 FEET. HIGH TIDES WILL CAUSE MINOR
COASTAL FLOODING ROUND HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW-
LYING ROADS NEAR ARCATA BOTTOMS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-116.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
CAZ103.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR CAZ103.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM SUNDAY TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ108-111-117.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR
PZZ415.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM SUNDAY TO 1 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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