282
FXUS66 KEKA 142257
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
357 PM PDT SUN JUN 14 2026
SYNOPSIS...MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS HAVE SEEN
INCREASE MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK DOWN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR
HEATRISK THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- SHALLOW MARINE INFLUENCE GROWING ALONG SHORE WILL KEEP CONDITIONS
GLOOMY FOR THE IMMEDIATE SHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLING TREND FOR INLAND AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS HUMBOLDT
AND TRINITY COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE, THOUGH NOT RECORD BREAKING. HIGH TEMPERATURES
SLIGHTLY WEAKENED IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES TODAY THANKS TO
INCREASED MARINE INFLUENCE. IN UKIAH, HIGHS ONLY REACHED THE MID
90S. MEANWHILE, TEMPERATURES JUMPED UP IN INTERIOR MENDOCINO AND
TRINITY WITH HOOPS REACHING 105. THESE TEMPERATURES CONSTITUTE A
GENERALLY MODERATE HEATRISK WITH SOME AREAS OF MAJOR RISK FOR THE
WARMEST VALLEYS. HEAT HAS MADE FOR A ROBUST BUT VERY SHALLOW MARINE
LAYER THAT HAS BLANKETED THE IMMEDIATE COAST THROUGH THE DAY TODAY
KEEPING CONDITIONS VERY COOL/
SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY ALL AROUND. COME
TUESDAY, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA, BUT WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE FURTHER SOUTH WILL PUSH
HEATRISK BACK TOWARD MAJOR IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, MAYBE
PROMOTING HEAT ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN IN SOME AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INTERIOR
HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE MID 80S. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE AROUND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
DEFINITELY COOL CONDITIONS AND HELP DEEPEN MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG
SHORE, CREATING A MORE PERSISTENT AND FURTHER REACHING MARINE LAYER.
MOST MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE TROUGH IS TOO WEAK TO TAP INTO ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS OR VERY WEAK STORMS COULD BE
LIKELY, CURRENTLY PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. /JHW
AVIATION
A VERY SHALLOW BUT THICK MARINE LAYER HAS BLANKETED THE
COAST ALL DAY TODAY. THOUGH IT EXTENDS NO MORE THAN A COUPLE MILES
INLAND, THIS HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO GENERATE LIFR CONDITIONS AT THE
COASTAL TERMINALS THROUGHOUT THE DAY. SKIES MAY BRIEFLY SCATTERING
INT HE EARLY EVENING BU OTHERWISE WEAK ONSHORE FLOW AND A STRONG
MARINE INVERSION WILL LIKELY PROMOTE LIFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
NIGHT WITH CEILINGS GRADUALLY LOWERING TO FORM FOG. MODELS GENERALLY
SUGGEST MORE NORTHERLY WIND TOMORROW WILL HELP PROMOTE VFR
CONDITIONS AT LEAST BY THE AFTERNOON. /JHW
&
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE BROADENING OVER THE AREA HAS CONTINUED TO
WEAKEN THE NEARSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT. NORTH WINDS HAVE ALL BUT
DISAPPEARED ACROSS THE WATERS WITH MOSTLY CALM SEAS. SUCH CONDITIONS
WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP
RESTRENGTHEN NORTH WINDS BEGINNING MONDAY EVENING AND INTO MID WEEK.
STRONG WINDS WILL FIRST BUILD IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THEN SPREAD
SOUTH. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR OUTER NORTHERN
WATERS BY WEDNESDAY. THAT SAID, THE INNER WATERS WILL MOST LIKELY
REMAIN MOSTLY CALM SHORT PERIOD SEA WILL FOLLOW THE WINDS AND
DOMINATE THE SEA STATE. DESPITE CALMER WINDS NEAR SHORE, JUST ENOUGH
STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL LIKELY EMANATE INTO THE INNER WATERS
TO JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES AROUND WEDNESDAY. /JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST
TIDE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. HIGH TIDES PEAKED AROUND 9
FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAKENED NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE WILL LIKELY PUSH THE TIDE EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR 9.1 FEET. HIGH TIDES WILL CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW- LYING ROADS NEAR ARCATA
BOTTOMS. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING HEAT WAVE HAS HELPED RAPIDLY DRY FUELS.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHING NEAR 100 WITH RH
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY HAS ALSO
BEEN POOR WITH THERMAL BELTS WITH MID AND UPPER ELEVATION NIGHTTIME
RH ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. ERC HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH MOST RAWS LIKELY TO REACH NEAR THE THE PERCENTILE BY
MIDWEEK, EVEN CLOSE TO SHORE. THAT SAID, THE GENERAL LACK OF WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE RISK OF ANY FAST MOVING FIRES. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS,
HOWEVER, CURRENTLY SHOW MOISTURE PROFILES INSUFFICIENT TO REALLY
DRIVE CONVECTION. CURRENT THUNDER CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NE TRINITY COUNTY. THAT SAID, ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE DRY
GIVEN THE SETUP AND PRECEDING CONDITIONS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-108-
111-116-117.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR CAZ103.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ114.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
MONDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 3 PM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TUESDAY
NIGHT FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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