062
FXUS66 KEKA 150850
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
150 AM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH THE EARLY WEEK, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS HAVE SEEN
INCREASE MARINE INFLUENCE AND COOLING. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK DOWN
LATER IN THE WEEK.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK WITH MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK
THROUGH EARLY WEEK.
- SHALLOW MARINE INFLUENCE GROWING ALONG SHORE WILL KEEP LOW CLOUDS
AND FOG FOR MOST OF THE IMMEDIATE SHORE THROUGH MONDAY.
- COOLING TREND FOR INLAND AREAS MID TO LATE NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FOCUS SHIFTING FURTHER NORTH ACROSS HUMBOLDT
AND TRINITY COUNTIES INTO MONDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO
BE ABOVE AVERAGE, THOUGH NOT RECORD BREAKING. THESE TEMPERATURES
CONSTITUTE A GENERALLY MODERATE HEATRISK WITH SOME AREAS OF MAJOR
RISK FOR THE WARMEST VALLEYS. SHALLOW MOISTURE REMAINS BELOW A
STRONG INVERSION. THIS CONTINUES TO RESULT IN AREAS OF FOG, WITH
PERIODS OF DENSE FOG OF VISIBILITY 1/4 MILE OR LESS. THE PATTERN
ALSO CONTINUES TO FAVOR VERY LITTLE BREAKS IN THESE CONDITIONS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FOR THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS.
COME TUESDAY, HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO PEAK FOR THE NORTHERN HALF OF
THE AREA, BUT WEAKENING MARINE INFLUENCE FURTHER SOUTH WILL PUSH
HEATRISK BACK TOWARD MAJOR IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES, MAYBE
PROMOTING HEAT ADVISORIES ONCE AGAIN IN SOME AREAS.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN LATE IN THE WEEK WITH INTERIOR
HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE MID 80S. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE AROUND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
DEFINITELY COOL CONDITIONS AND HELP DEEPEN MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG
SHORE, CREATING A MORE PERSISTENT AND FURTHER REACHING MARINE LAYER.
MOST MODELS CURRENTLY SUGGEST THE TROUGH IS TOO WEAK TO TAP INTO ANY
TROPICAL MOISTURE. WHILE SOME SHOWERS OR VERY WEAK STORMS COULD BE
LIKELY, CURRENTLY PROFILES ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR WIDESPREAD
CONVECTION. JHW/JJW
AVIATION
THE SHALLOW AND ROBUST LOW LEVEL INVERSION THAT BROUGHT
UNYIELDING LIFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY FOR THE COASTAL TERMINALS, WITH
PERIOD OF DENSE FOG, REMAINS IN PLACE. THAT SAID, ONLY BRIEF IF ANY
WINDOWS OF IMPROVEMENT IN VISIBILITY AND CEILING HEIGHTS ARE
FORECAST MONDAY. AN ALTERNATE BUT LESS LIKELY SCENARIO IS THAT THE
STRONG RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE COMPRESSES THE INVERSION TO SUCH A
SHALLOW LEVEL THAT THE STRATUS DISSOLVES BETTER OVER THE COAST
DURING AFTERNOON HEATING. IN ANY EVENT, THE SHALLOW STRATUS AND FOG
WILL CONTINUE A STRONG PRESENCE OVER THE COASTAL TERMINALS. IT DOES
APPEAR THAT THE MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BE TURN SHALLOW ENOUGH
TUESDAY TO MORE FULLY SCATTER OUT FOR A PERIOD.
MARINE
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WILL ALLOW FOR GENTLE WINDS AND SEAS
OF 3 TO 5 FEET FOR MUCH OF MONDAY. A STRONGER RIDGE WILL NOSE IN
FROM THE WEST LATE MONDAY, AND THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN
IN RESPONSE. NEAR GALE TO GALE CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP OVER PORTIONS
OF THE WATERS, MAINLY THE OUTERS, TUESDAY. THE NORTHERLY WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THOUGH WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER, SHORT
PERIOD AND OCCASIONALLY LARGE SEAS NEAR 10 FEET WILL ENTER THE INNER
WATERS AROUND AND NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
THEREAFTER, SEAS TREND LOWER AFTER THE STRONGER NORTHERLIES LIKELY
PULL FARTHER OFFSHORE.
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING HEAT WAVE HAS HELPED RAPIDLY DRY FUELS.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHING NEAR 100 WITH RH
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY HAS ALSO
BEEN POOR WITH THERMAL BELTS WITH MID AND UPPER ELEVATION NIGHTTIME
RH ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. ERC HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH MOST RAWS LIKELY TO REACH NEAR THE THE PERCENTILE BY
MIDWEEK, EVEN CLOSE TO SHORE. THAT SAID, THE GENERAL LACK OF WIND
WILL CONTINUE TO SUPPRESS THE RISK OF ANY FAST MOVING FIRES. HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS WILL WEAKEN BY MIDWEEK.
LONG TERM MODELS SHOW A WEAK TROUGH CROSSING THE AREA LATE IN THE
WEEK. SUCH A PATTERN COULD PRODUCE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS,
HOWEVER, CURRENTLY SHOW MOISTURE PROFILES INSUFFICIENT TO REALLY
DRIVE CONVECTION. CURRENT THUNDER CHANCES ARE LESS THAN 10 PERCENTS
WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN NE TRINITY COUNTY. THAT SAID, ANY
SHOWERS THAT DO FORM OVER HIGH TERRAIN ARE MOST LIKELY TO BE DRY
GIVEN THE SETUP AND PRECEDING CONDITIONS. JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST
TIDE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. HIGH TIDES PEAKED AROUND 9
FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAKENED NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE WILL LIKELY PUSH THE TIDE EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR 9.1 FEET. HIGH TIDES WILL CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW- LYING ROADS NEAR ARCATA
BOTTOMS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-108-
111-116-117.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT MONDAY FOR CAZ103.
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM MONDAY TO 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR
CAZ114.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM MONDAY TO 8 AM PDT TUESDAY
FOR PZZ470.
GALE WATCH FROM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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