391
FXUS66 KEKA 152254
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
354 PM PDT MON JUN 15 2026
SYNOPSIS
MODERATE TO MAJOR HEATRISK WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
INTERIOR THROUGH TUESDAY, THOUGH COASTAL AREAS WILL STILL SEE MARINE
INFLUENCE AND COOLING. THE HEAT WAVE WILL BREAK DOWN BEGINNING
WEDNESDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES BEGIN TO SLIGHTLY EASE BUT REMAIN ABOVE AVERAGE
TUESDAY.
- COOLING TREND BEGINNING TO BUILD IN WEDNESDAY.
- SLIGHT (15%) THUNDERSTORM CHANCES OVER THE EASTERN INTERIOR
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGING CONTINUES TO DOMINATE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH THE STRONGEST FOCUS PERSISTING OVER HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY
COUNTIES TODAY WITH VALLEY HIGH TEMPERATURES AGAIN AROUND 100. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE ABOVE AVERAGE, THOUGH NOT RECORD
BREAKING. HIGH TEMPERATURES REBOUND AGAIN TODAY FOR THE SOUTHERN
HALF OF THE AREA THANKS TO WEAKENED SOUTH WIND. UKIAH RETURNED TO
NEAR 100 MONDAY AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WILL EASE BY JUST A COUPLE
DEGREES TUESDAY, BUT THESE TEMPERATURES STILL CONSTITUTE A GENERALLY
MODERATE HEATRISK WITH SOME AREAS OF MAJOR RISK FOR THE WARMEST
VALLEYS. HEAT HAS MADE FOR A ROBUST BUT VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
THAT HAS BLANKETED THE IMMEDIATE COAST, THOUGH CLEARING MONDAY WAS
SLIGHT BETTER THAN SUNDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN MORE BY WEDNESDAY WITH INTERIOR
HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE MID 80S. MOST DETERMINISTIC MODELS SHOW
WEAK TROUGH PUSHING ONSHORE AROUND THURSDAY. THIS TROUGH WILL
DEFINITELY COOL CONDITIONS AND HELP DEEPEN MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG
SHORE, CREATING A MORE PERSISTENT AND FURTHER REACHING MARINE LAYER.
COMPARED TO P[PREVIOUS RUNS, MORE HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A WEAK
MOISTURE PLUME MOVING UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY. INTERACTING WITH THE
TROUGH, THIS COULD (20% CHANCE) PRODUCE ELEVATED, MOSTLY DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN EASTERN MENDOCINO AND TRINITY COUNTIES ON THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS. /JHW
AVIATION
A VERY SHALLOW BUT THICK MARINE LAYER HAS BLANKETED THE
COAST ALL DAY TODAY, CREATING MOSTLY LIFR CONDITIONS RIGHT ALONG
SHORE. THAT SAID, CLOUDS HAVE AT LEAST BRIEFLY PULLED BACK FROM THE
COAST AND ALLOWED FOR SOME PERIOD OF VFR THIS AFTERNOON. LIFR
CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY QUICKLY RETURN LATER THIS EVENING. NORTH
WINDS BUILDING ALONG SHORE WILL MOST LIKELY ALLOW FOR BETTER
CLEARING COME TUESDAY. /JHW
&
MARINE
MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS CURRENTLY BRIDGE ACROSS ALL
WATERS. HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL HELP
RESTRENGTHEN NORTH WINDS BEGINNING LATE THIS EVENING AND INTO MID
WEEK. STRONG WINDS WILL FIRST BUILD IN THE NORTHERN WATERS AND THEN
SPREAD SOUTH. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS ARE MOST LIKELY FOR OUTER
NORTHERN WATERS BY LATE TUESDAY. THAT SAID, THE INNER WATERS WILL
MOST LIKELY REMAIN MOSTLY CALM. SHORT PERIOD SEA WILL FOLLOW THE
WINDS AND DOMINATE THE SEA STATE. DESPITE CALMER WINDS NEAR SHORE,
JUST ENOUGH STEEP SHORT PERIOD WAVES WILL LIKELY EMANATE INTO THE
INNER WATERS TO JUSTIFY SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES FOR STEEP SEAS AROUND
WEDNESDAY. /JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE PREDICTED
THROUGH TUESDAY JUNE 16 FOR NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA WITH THE HIGHEST
TIDE JUST BEFORE MIDNIGHT EACH EVENING. HIGH TIDES PEAKED AROUND 9
FEET ON SATURDAY NIGHT. WEAKENED NORTH WINDS AND HIGHER ASTRONOMICAL
TIDE WILL LIKELY PUSH THE TIDE EVEN SLIGHTLY HIGHER SUNDAY NIGHT
NEAR 9.1 FEET. HIGH TIDES WILL CAUSE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING ROUND
HUMBOLDT BAY, INCLUDING KING SALMON AND LOW- LYING ROADS NEAR ARCATA
BOTTOMS. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
AN ONGOING HEAT WAVE HAS HELPED RAPIDLY DRY FUELS.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN REACHING NEAR 100 WITH RH
GENERALLY BETWEEN 15 AND 25 PERCENT. OVERNIGHT RH RECOVERY HAS ALSO
BEEN POOR WITH THERMAL BELTS WITH MID AND UPPER ELEVATION NIGHTTIME
RH ONLY AROUND 50 PERCENT. ERC HAS RAPIDLY INCREASED ACROSS THE
BOARD WITH MOST RAWS ALREADY REACHING NEAR THE 90TH PERCENTILE, EVEN
CLOSE TO SHORE. THAT SAID, THE GENERAL LACK OF WIND WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPRESS THE RISK OF ANY FAST MOVING FIRES. HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS
WILL WEAKEN BEGINNING WEDNESDAY.
THE PATTERN LATE WEEK IS COMING MORE INTO FOCUS. SOME LONGER RANGE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW A MORE WELL FORMED THOUGH WEAK MOISTURE
PLUME MOVING UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY LATE WEEK. COMBINED WITH THE
THE PASSING UPPER LEVEL TROUGH, SUCH A SETUP IS LIKELY TO CREATE
THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOONS AND
EVENINGS. THE GREATEST POTENTIAL WILL BE IN NE TRINITY COUNTY (20%
CHANCE) WITH LOWER CHANCES (10%) AROUND THE YOLLA BOLLYS. ANY STORMS
THAT FORM WILL BE MOSTLY DRY. GIVEN THE PRECEDING HEAT WAVE, ANY
LIGHTNING IS LIKELY TO BE EFFICIENT WITH POSSIBLE NEW FIRE STARTS.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT TUESDAY FOR CAZ102-105-108-
111-114-116-117.
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM TUESDAY TO 3 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 8 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 8 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR
PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TUESDAY TO 9 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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