064
FXUS66 KEKA 172238
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
338 PM PDT WED JUN 17 2026
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
MARINE INFLUENCE LIFTING ALONG SHORE AND PUSHING MORE INLAND.
SCATTERED DRY THUNDERSTORMS WILL IMPACT HIGH TERRAIN LOCATIONS OVER
THE INTERIOR FRIDAY.
KEY MESSAGES
- TEMPERATURES EASE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR
HEATRISK
- VERY SLIGHT CHANCE OF DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER HIGH TERRAIN THURSDAY
WITH GREATER CHANGES ON FRIDAY.
- A LIFTING BUT PERSISTENT MARINE LAYER FORMING ALONG SHORE.
DISCUSSION
CONDITIONS STARTED TO COOL MUCH MORE RAPIDLY TODAY
WITH MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS STRUGGLING TO REACH EVEN 90. COOLING WILL
CONTINUE THURSDAY AS A BROAD TROUGH APPROACHES THE AREA. THE TROUGH
WILL HELP GENERATE SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS AND PULL IN MORE MARINE
INFLUENCE, HELPING TO DROP INTERIOR TEMPERATURES INTO THE 80S AND
CREATING A MORE LIFTED MARINE LAYER ALONG THE COAST.
THE TROUGH WILL ALSO HELP INCREASE UPPER LEVEL INSTABILITY. COMBINED
WITH A MOISTURE SURGE UP THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY, THERE IS A CHANCE
(10) OF ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY THUNDERSTORMS OVER EASTERN TRINITY AND
AS SOON AS THURSDAY EVENING. THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL WILL INCREASE
FRIDAY WITH A 20% CHANCE OF ISOLATED DRY STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES AND A LESSER CHANCE
EXTENDING AS FAR SOUTH AS THE YOLLA BOLLYS. OTHERWISE, TEMPERATURES
WILL BOTTOM OUT FRIDAY WITH SLIGHT WARMING INTO THE WEEKEND.
SEASONABLY WARM AND DRY BUT OTHERWISE UNIMPACTFUL CONDITIONS WILL
BUILD INTO THE WEEKEND. LONG RANGE MODELS INDICATE POTENTIAL FOR A
MODERATE HEATWAVE NEXT WEEK. /JHW
AVIATION
A SHALLOW, LIFR MARINE LAYER ONCE AGAIN BLANKETED THE
COAST THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE COAST HAS CLEARED TO VFR THIS
AFTERNOON THOUGH A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER STILL LURKS JUST OFFSHORE.
MOST MODELS INDICATE THE LAYER QUICKLY RESURGING TO CREATE LIFR
COASTAL CONDITIONS, THOUGH MARINE LAYER LIFTING MAY PUSH CEILINGS
CLOSER TO IFR. A LIFTED MARINE LAYER WILL ALSO INCREASE THE
POTENTIAL IMPACT THE RUSSIAN RIVER VALLEY AND KUKI WITH IFR
CONDITIONS LIKELY THERE BY THURSDAY MORNING. /JHW
&
MARINE
STRONG NORTH WINDS PERSISTED ALL THROUGH THE DAY INT HE
FAR OUTER WATERS, HELPING TO GENERATE STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS.
MODERATELY STEEP SEAS OVER 10 FEET FILLED IN THROUGHOUT THE INNER
WATERS, DESPITE CALMER WINDS NEAR SHORE. WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS W
ILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND PUSH FURTHER OFFSHORE OVERNIGHT INTO
THURSDAY WITH SHORT PERIOD SEAS SLOWLY FALLING MOSTLY BELOW 6 FEET
BY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY CALM FRIDAY WITH MODERATE NORTH
WINDS REBUILDING AND PUSHING CLOSE TO SHORE SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
/JHW
FIRE WEATHER
A NOW RECEDING HEATWAVE HAS LEFT FUELS MUCH DRIER
THAN THEY WERE JUST ONE WEEK AGO WITH ERC BROADLY NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. ERC IS FORECAST TO REMAIN HIGH
DESPITE INCREASING RH OVER THE COMING DAYS. OVERALL WEATHER
CONDITIONS WILL GREATLY MODERATE THROUGH FRIDAY WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN
THE 80S, INCREASING MARINE INFLUENCE, AND RH CLOSER TO 30 PERCENT.
WINDS WILL REMAIN GENTLE AND TERRAIN DRIVEN.
THAT SAID, THE APPROACHING TROUGH THAT IS HELPING COOLING CONDITIONS
WILL ALSO PULL UP SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE COMBINED WITH INCREASING
INSTABILITY. IN COMBINATION, THESE TWO FACTORS COULD CREATE SOME
VERY ISOLATED, MOSTLY DRY, THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN FAR
NE TRINITY COUNTY (10% CHANCE). SMALL WAVES ROTATING AROUND THE
TROUGH MAY TRIGGER CONVECTION OVERNIGHT. SOME HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
HINT AT WEAK STORM ACTIVITY IN THE EARLY MORNING HOURS (ALSO 10%
CHANCE FRIDAY. MUCH MORE ROBUST ACTIVITY IS LIKELY (25% CHANCE)
ACROSS NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES BY FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LOWER CHANCES AS FAR SOUTH AS THE YOLLA BOLLYS. STORM MOTION APPEARS
SLOW AND ISOLATED OVERALL, BUT IGNITIONS ARE STILL VERY LIKELY GIVEN
THE CURRENT ERC VALUES. ANY STORMS COULD ALSO PRODUCE SOME RAIN AND
GUSTY ERRATIC OUTFLOW WINDS. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ403-406-409-410.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-475.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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