412
FXUS66 KEKA 112013
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
113 PM PDT SAT JUL 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* INTERIOR HEAT: AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL EXPAND WESTWARD LATE THIS
WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK, CAUSING TEMPERATURES TO RISE
ABOVE NORMAL ACROSS INLAND VALLEYS.
* SLIGHT THREAT FOR ISOLATED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS. A 10 TO 20%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AND TUESDAY, MOSTLY IN TRINITY
COUNTY.
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH HAS
STARTED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA, BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING THE
GROUND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
AREA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, BUT COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
YOLLA BOLLYS AND THE TRINITY ALPS. THE RRFS IS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MONDAY, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW
ON ANY THUNDER AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TUESDAY,
THOUGH MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. CURRENTLY MODELS DO SHOW
JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A 10-
20% CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR MOST
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST AREAS EXCEEDING 100 THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY NUDGE THESE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE. COASTAL AREAS REMAIN IN THE HIGH 50S TO MID 60S WITH
STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND PARTIALLY CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MID THIS WEEK AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BRING
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD, AND POSSIBLY PERSISTENT, COASTAL STRATUS. JB
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
STRATUS HAS LIFTED AND SCATTER FROM THE
COASTAL AREAS AND VFR CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY ACROSS THE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. STRATUS MAY MAKE A RETURN TO THE
COASTAL AREAS THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOWER
THAN PREVIOUS DAYS. CEC HAS AROUND A 45% CHANCE TO SEE STRATUS,
WHILE ACV HAS A 60% CHANCE. SHOULD STRATUS DEVELOP, LIFR TO IFR
CEILINGS ARE EXPECTED. ANY STRATUS WILL LIFT AND SCATTER BY LATE
MORNING SUNDAY. INTERIOR AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE
NEXT 24 HOURS. JB
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS INCREASE AGAIN THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT
WITH LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AT 10-20 KTS, BUT
COULD STILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON. NORTHERLY WINDS EASE
SOMEWHAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE LEE OF
CAPE MENDOCINO. STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RETURN MID TO LATE NEXT
WEEK. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND WAVES WITH ONLY SMALL MID TO
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS. STEEP WIND WAVES MAY PROPAGATE TO THE
INNER WATERS EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN MILDER. JB
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TO THE AREA AND WILL
PEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY IS LOW, BUT WITH WARM AND DRY LOW
LEVELS, ANY THUNDER IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. THE RRFS IS SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING,
STARTING FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD. OTHER
MODELS SHOW THIS FEATURE, BUT INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON
WITH 10-20% CHANCES IN TRINITY COUNTY AND INTO THE YOLLA BOLLYS.
THIS MAY STILL NUDGE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD, BUT IS HIGHLY
DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE NUDGES. SOME MODELS DO SHOW
MOISTURE COMPLETELY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, STILL, SO CONFIDENCE
GENERALLY REMAINS LOW. JB
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 9 AM PDT MONDAY
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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