442
FXUS66 KEKA 120818
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
118 AM PDT SUN JUL 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
- SLIGHT THREAT OF ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS
WEEK.
- WARMING TEMPERATURES THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH MINOR TO MODERATE HEAT
RISK.
- MINOR COASTAL FLOODING POSSIBLE AROUND PORTIONS OF HUMBOLDT BAY,
HIGHEST TIDE MONDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES RETURN TO MUCH OF THE INTERIOR SUNDAY.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING CLOUD COVER AND MOISTURE MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE EARLY NEXT
WEEK IN THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
SLIDING EASTWARD WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST US
CONTINUES TO EXPAND WESTWARD. MONSOONAL MOISTURE FROM THE SOUTH HAS
STARTED TO STREAM OVER THE AREA, BRINGING A FEW HIGH CLOUDS.
ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE AREA TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. A FEW
VIRGA SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE FOR THE EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA, BUT THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN ANYTHING REACHING THE
GROUND. MONDAY AND TUESDAY, ADDITIONAL MOISTURE STREAMS OVER THE
AREA. INSTABILITY IS MEAGER, BUT COULD BRING A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR AREAS, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES IN THE
YOLLA BOLLYS AND THE TRINITY ALPS. THE RRFS IS SHOWING SOME
CONVECTION CONTINUING OVERNIGHT MONDAY AND OTHER GUIDANCE HAS A FEW
ISOLATED STORMS ALSO SUNDAY NIGHT, BUT CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ANY
THUNDER AT THIS TIME. INSTABILITY DOES INCREASE TUESDAY, THOUGH
MOISTURE STARTS TO MOVE EASTWARD. CURRENTLY MODELS DO SHOW JUST
ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINING BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON, BRINGING A 10-20%
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN IN THE 90S FOR MOST
INTERIOR VALLEYS WITH THE WARMEST AREAS EXCEEDING 100 THIS WEEKEND.
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER EARLY NEXT WEEK MAY NUDGE THESE FORECASTED
TEMPERATURES DOWN A FEW DEGREES. HEATRISK REMAINS MINOR TO LOCALLY
MODERATE. COASTAL AREAS REMAIN IN THE HIGH 50S TO MID 60S WITH
STRATUS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND PARTIALLY CLEARING BY THE AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MID THIS WEEK AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH
MOVES SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BRING
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD, AND POSSIBLY PERSISTENT, COASTAL STRATUS. JB
AVIATION
STRATUS REMAINS VERY LIMITED ACROSS THE REGION WITH ONLY
A FEW LOW CLOUDS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF HUMBOLDT COUNTY. MOST
GUIDANCE INDICATES MINIMAL STRATUS REDEVELOPMENT, BUT WITH A FEW
LINGERING CLOUDS AT THIS HOUR, IT IS HARD TO BELIEVE THE CLOUDS
WON'T MAKE IT BACK INTO ACV AT LEAST FOR SOME TIME PERIOD TONIGHT
WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. ELSEWHERE VFR IS CURRENTLY ANTICIPATED
BUT IF THE STRATUS DOES REFORM, LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS NEAR CEC COULD
LET IT CREEP BACK NORTH TOWARD THE TERMINAL. GUSTY NORTHERLY WINDS
WILL RETURN ALONG THE COAST DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS ON SUNDAY.
/RPA
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT WITH
LOCALIZED GALE FORCE GUSTS LIKELY IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
OUTSIDE OF THIS, SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15-25 KTS ARE LIKELY FOR THE
OUTER WATERS. NEARSHORE WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER AT 10-20 KTS, BUT
COULD STILL BE BREEZY IN THE AFTERNOON ON SUNDAY. NORTHERLY WINDS
EASE SOMEWHAT MONDAY INTO TUESDAY, BUT WILL REMAIN STRONG IN THE LEE
OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STRONG WINDS AND STEEP SEAS RETURN MID TO LATE
NEXT WEEK. SEAS WILL BE DOMINATED BY WIND WAVES WITH ONLY SMALL MID
TO LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS. STEEP WIND WAVES MAY PROPAGATE TO
THE INNER WATERS EVEN AS WINDS REMAIN MILDER. /JB
FIRE WEATHER
MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS ARRIVED TO THE AREA AND WILL
PEAK MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THERE IS HIGH UNCERTAINTY IF THIS WILL LEAD
TO THUNDERSTORMS AS INSTABILITY IS LOW, BUT WITH WARM AND DRY LOW
LEVELS, ANY THUNDER IS LIKELY TO BE DRY. THE RRFS IS SHOWING SOME
POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING, STARTING
FROM THE SOUTH IN THE EVENING AND MOVING NORTHWARD. OTHER MODELS
SHOW THIS FEATURE, BUT INSTABILITY IS MUCH WEAKER. ADDITIONALLY,
ANOTHER IMPULSE PASSING BY SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY IS ALSO STARTING
TO BE HIGHLIGHTED BY SOME OF THE HIGH RESOLUTION GUIDANCE. THUS
THERE ARE SEVERAL SLIGHT CHANCE OPPORTUNITIES FOR A FEW ISOLATED
STORMS OVER THE AREA. THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS REMAINS
ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON WHEN THE HEATING OF THE DAY INCREASES
THUNDERSTORMS CHANCES TO AROUND 10-20% IN TRINITY COUNTY AND INTO
THE YOLLA BOLLYS. THIS MAY STILL NUDGE WESTWARD AND SOUTHWARD, BUT
IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW FAR EAST THE MOISTURE NUDGES. SOME MODELS
DO SHOW MOISTURE COMPLETELY TO THE EAST OF THE AREA, STILL, SO
CONFIDENCE GENERALLY REMAINS LOW. /JB/RPA
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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