880
FXUS66 KEKA 141004
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
304 AM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE INTERIOR WITH
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
* THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDER MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL
ELEVATE FIRE RISK. THERE IS A 10 PERCENT CHANCE OF OTHER AREAS
SEEING THUNDER AS WELL.
* COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
POSSIBLE AT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY IN
THE INTERIOR. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IN BRITISH COLUMBIA CONTINUES TO
INCH EASTWARD WHILE AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES CONTINUES TO
EXPAND WESTWARD. THIS RIDGE WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES TO
THE INTERIOR WITH 90S LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEYS AND THE WARMEST AREAS
SLIGHTLY EXCEEDING 100. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEATRISK IS
EXPECTED.
A SHORTWAVE MOVING UP THE WEST SIDE OF THE RIDGE IS APPROACHING
THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING. THE MONSOON MOISTURE HAS
STARTED MOVING IN WITH THE 00Z MFR SOUNDING ALREADY SHOWING 0.80
INCHES OF PWAT. LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON AS THE
SHORTWAVE APPROACHES, COMBINED WITH THE DAYTIME HEATING IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SOME INSTABILITY. THE NAM AND THE GFS ARE
BOTH SHOWING 300 TO 400 J/KG OF SURFACE CAPE IN TRINITY COUNTY
WITH THE 700 TO 500 MB LAPSE RATES UP AROUND 8C/KM. THE MODEL
SOUNDINGS ARE SHOWING A DEEP INVERTED V INCREASING THE POTENTIAL
FOR STRONG DOWNBURST WINDS. THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF
UNCERTAINTY ON COVERAGE OF THE STORMS, HOWEVER THE CAMS GENERALLY
SHOW STORMS FORMING IN THE AFTERNOON IN TRINITY COUNTY.
DRIER AIR RETURNS MIDWEEK AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY BRING INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD, AND POSSIBLY PERSISTENT, COASTAL STRATUS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK, RETURNING WARMER INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES. MODELS HAVE SLOWED DOWN THE NEXT PERIOD OF MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WITH THE MOST RECENT NBM SHOWING PWATS NOT INCREASING
UNTIL MONDAY AND TUESDAY. THE INSTABILITY LOOKS WEAK AND THE
THUNDER PROBABILITIES ARE NOW ONLY SHOWING A MAX OF 10 PERCENT. THIS
WILL STILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS CLOSER BUT FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LESS THREATENING. /JB/MKK
AVIATION
MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW A DEEPER MARINE LAYER BUT THE
TREND OVERNIGHT FOR THE PAST FEW TAF PERIODS HAS HAD A COMPRESSED
CLOUD LAYER UNDERNEATH. IT IS EXPECTED AND ALREADY VERIFYING
SOMEWHAT, THAT 500 FOOT CEILINGS ARE BEGINNING TO TRANSITION FROM
SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AS OF 04Z.
GFS SUGGEST LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS AND OVERCASTS DOWN TO 100 FEET
WHICH FOLLOWS RECENT TRENDS ALTHOUGH VISIBILITY IS NOT LIKELY TO
GET DOWN TO 1/4 MILE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY EARLY MORNING AS THE
MARINE LAYER LIFTS. WESTERLY WINDS WILL PREVAIL BY SUNRISE AT KACV
WITH A BIT MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BEARING AT KCEC. IFR CATEGORIES
WILL TRANSITION TO MVFR CATEGORIES BY THE AFTERNOON AT THE COASTAL
TERMINALS WITH WINDS JUST UNDER 10 KNOTS AND EVENTUALLY VFR BY
THE LATE AFTERNOON. PREVAILING VFR CONDITIONS AT KUKI ARE
EXPECTED WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS MOST OF THE MORNING AND
NORTHERLIES GUSTING UP BY THE LATE AFTERNOON. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE WATERS, STRONGEST
OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES, PARTICULARLY AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO.
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WIND PULSES WILL CREATE GALE CONDITIONS ALONG
AND SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO, WITH GUSTS NEARING 40KTS AT TIMES IN A
CONFINED EXPANSION FAN AROUND THE CAPE. STEEP SEAS UP TO 9FT WILL BE
GENERATED IN RESPONSE. THESE SEAS WILL LIKELY PROPAGATE INTO INNER
COASTAL WATERS AND COAST FARTHER SOUTH OF THE CAPE WHERE LIGHTER
WINDS ARE.
THE NORTHERN ZONES NORTH OF THE CAPE WILL SEE LIGHTER WINDS AND
SEAS, ESPECIALLY INSIDE OF 10 NM. STEEP SEAS UP UP TO 6 FT WILL
PERIODICALLY MAKE IN INTO THE NORTHERN INNER ZONES FROM THE STRONGER
OFFSHORE WINDS HOWEVER.
A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL ESTABLISH ITSELF WELL OFFSHORE THE N.
CA COAST FRIDAY. THIS WILL GREATLY EASE THE WINDS AND SEAS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY SATURDAY. THIS FEATURE LOOKS REMAIN AROUND
THROUGH THE WEEKEND TO CONTINUE MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS.
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE BASIN WIDE
WARMTH IN THE OCEAN IS CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS
DESPITE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WATER LEVELS WERE CLOSE TO 0.7
FEET OVER THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A HIGH
TIDE OF 9.1 FEET. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT WATER LEVELS CLOSE TO 9
FEET AGAIN AT THE NORTH SPIT IN HUMBODLT CAUSING AND CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING AGAIN TUESDAY LATE EVENING. THE TIDE WILL BEGIN TO
DIMINISH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. MKK/EYS
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THUNDER INFORMATION SEE GENERAL DISCUSSION
ABOVE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MENDOCINO COUNTY IS EXPECTED TO
SEE AFTERNOON RH ONLY DROP INTO THE 20S DUE TO THE NORTHWEST
WINDS. FARTHER INLAND IN LAKE COUNTY THERE IS ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER. RH IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS BOTH WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOONS. THIS WILL BE ESPECIALLY TRUE IN EASTERN LAKE
COUNTY. FOR NOW CONDITIONS DON'T LOOK SEVERE ENOUGH TO WARRANT A
RED FLAG WARNING, BUT HAVE ADDED A HEADLINE TO THE FWF TO
HIGHLIGHT THIS. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ103.
RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ403-409>412.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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