232
FXUS66 KEKA 142043
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
143 PM PDT TUE JUL 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* HOT: ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TODAY FOR THE INTERIOR
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO AROUND 100.
* DRY LIGHTNING: THERE IS A 20 PERCENT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
MAINLY IN TRINITY COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DRY
LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WINDS WILL ELEVATE FIRE RISK. THERE IS A
10-15 PERCENT CHANCE OF OTHER AREAS SEEING THUNDER.
* COASTAL FLOODING: MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY
POSSIBLE AT THE EVENING HIGH TIDE THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
HOT TEMPERATURES CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE INTERIOR
TODAY. ISOLATED DRY THUNDERSTORMS OR SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY
IN THE INTERIOR. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH WARMING AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
MONSOONAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE AREA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ELEVATED INSTABILITY MAY SUPPORT
A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE
HIGHEST CHANCES REMAIN IN TRINITY COUNTY FOR THIS AFTERNOON, BUT A
FEW MODELS DO SHOW THIS BOTH FARTHER WEST AND SOUTH INTO HUMBOLDT
AND MENDOCINO COUNTIES. INSTABILITY IS STILL LIMITED WITH EVEN
THE MOST AMBITIOUS MODELS SHOWING 200-400 J/KG AT THE MOST.
STILL, THIS COULD BE ENOUGH FOR A LIGHTNING STRIKES. "INVERTED-V"
MODEL SOUNDINGS ALONG WITH HIGH PW VALUES NEARING 1 INCH DOES
SUPPORT A DOWNBURST THREAT SHOULD THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP. STRONG TO
NEAR SEVERE WIND GUSTS OF 50 MPH OR HIGHER COULD FOLLOW A
THUNDERSTORM. WITH LITTLE TO NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED TO REACH
THE GROUND, ERRATIC, GUSTY WINDS COULD CAUSE FIRES TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY. A RED FLAG WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING IN TRINITY COUNTY, NORTHEASTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY, AND
SOUTHWESTERN SISKIYOU COUNTY FOR THIS FIRE THREAT.
OUTSIDE OF THUNDERSTORMS, HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BRING HOT
TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S TO
NEAR 100 FOR MOST INTERIOR VALLEYS. MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
HEATRISK IS FORECAST. A STRONG MARINE INVERSION IS IN PLACE FOR
THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS, BRINGING MORE PERSISTENT
STRATUS ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. SOME BRIEF CLEARING IS
POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
DRIER AIR RETURNS WEDNESDAY AS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST TROUGH MOVES
SOUTHWESTWARD. A DEEPER MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BRING INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES DOWN BY A FEW DEGREES, WHILE BRINGING MORE
WIDESPREAD, AND POSSIBLY PERSISTENT, COASTAL STRATUS. HIGH
PRESSURE RETURNS LATE WEEK, RETURNING WARMER INTERIOR
TEMPERATURES.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE AREA NEXT MONDAY THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL BRING ADDITIONAL CHANCES FOR
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA, THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ON TIMING
AND LOCATION AT THIS TIME. THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT GETS
CLOSER. /JB
AVIATION
COASTAL AIRPORTS ARE EXPERIENCING A MIXED BAG OF
CONDITIONS TODAY AS THE MARINE LAYER FLUCTUATES ALONG THE COAST.
AT KACV, LOW CEILINGS ARE HOVERING AROUND 400 FEET, THOUGH
HORIZONTAL VISIBILITY REMAINS EXCELLENT AT 10 MILES. THESE LOW
CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DROPPING LOWER
TONIGHT, BRINGING MIST AND DENSE FOG THAT WILL LIKELY REDUCE
VISIBILITIES TO A HALF-MILE BY EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. FURTHER
NORTH AT KCEC, THICK MIST AND LOW CEILINGS HAVE KEPT VISIBILITIES
RESTRICTED TO AROUND 1 MILE TODAY. WHILE A BRIEF AFTERNOON
IMPROVEMENT TO SCATTERED CLOUDS IS EXPECTED, LOW CEILINGS AND
DENSE FOG WILL RETURN BY EARLY EVENING, LOCKING THE TERMINAL INTO
LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. MEANWHILE, INLAND AREAS AT KUKI WILL
ENJOY CLEAR SKIES AND SOLID VFR THRESHOLDS THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. LIGHT AFTERNOON WINDS WILL GIVE WAY TO BREEZY
NORTHWESTERLY WINDS GUSTING UP TO 17 KNOTS LATE TODAY BEFORE
BECOMING CALM AFTER SUNSET.
MARINE
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE, ESPECIALLY IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. LOCALIZED GALE FORCE
GUSTS ARE LIKELY IN THE IMMEDIATE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP
SEAS OF 6 TO 8 FT ARE LIKELY IN THIS EXPANSION FAN OFF THE CAPE.
ELSEWHERE, WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MUCH LIGHTER WITH PEAK GUSTS
OF 10-20 KTS. SEAS HAVE SUBSIDED OUTSIDE CAPE MENDOCINO WITH
OBSERVED SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS OF ONLY 3-5 FT. THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY, THE STRONGEST WINDS TO MOVE AWAY FROM THE COAST. THE
OUTER WATERS COULD STILL SEE BREEZY WINDS WITH GUSTS OF 20-30
KTS, BUT THE INNER WATERS WILL SEE MUCH LIGHTER WINDS. MUCH MILDER
CONDITIONS ARRIVE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. /JB
FIRE WEATHER
FOR THUNDERSTORM INFORMATION SEE GENERAL DISCUSSION
ABOVE. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON, STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED
IN MENDOCINO, LAKE, AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RH IS
EXPECTED TO BE LOW WITH TEENS AND 20S EXPECTED FOR MUCH OF
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY AND TEENS IN LAKE COUNTY AND TRINITY COUNTY.
THESE WINDS AND LOW RHS WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER. THE UPSIDE IS
THESE ONSHORE WINDS WILL BRING MORE MOISTURE AND RH WILL
GRADUALLY RISE. WINDS CONTINUE TO BE BREEZY THURSDAY BUT HIGHER
AFTERNOON RHS ARE EXPECTED WITH 20S AND 30S IN MENDOCINO, 20S IN
LAKE COUNTY, AND TEENS TO 20S TO EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY. WINDS
EASE FRIDAY, BUT AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS
AND 20S. /JB/MKK
COASTAL FLOODING
HIGH ASTRONOMICAL TIDES AND THE BASIN WIDE
WARMTH IN THE OCEAN IS CREATING HIGHER THAN NORMAL WATER LEVELS
DESPITE LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS. THE WATER LEVELS WERE CLOSE TO 0.7
FEET OVER THE ASTRONOMICAL TIDE MONDAY EVENING RESULTING IN A HIGH
TIDE OF 9.1 FEET. THIS WILL LIKELY PUT WATER LEVELS CLOSE TO 9
FEET AGAIN AT THE NORTH SPIT IN HUMBODLT CAUSING AND CAUSE MINOR
FLOODING AGAIN TONIGHT. THE TIDE WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING. MKK/EYS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 2 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ103.
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ403-
409>412.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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