910
FXUS66 KEKA 160940
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
240 AM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK.
* BREEZY AFTERNOON WINDS TODAY ACROSS MENDOCINO, LAKE AND TRINITY
COUNTIES. LOCAL AREAS OF LOW RH WILL ELEVATE FIRE DANGER,
ESPECIALLY IN LAKE COUNTY.
* POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL
BRING COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES, BACK CLOSER TO NORMAL FOR THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THIS WILL ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS INTO
THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR
THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST IS
MOVING SLIGHTLY CLOSER. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING SOME COOLER
WEATHER AND CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON. THE LOWER
HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT ARE WEAKENING THE MARINE
INVERSION AND THIS SHOULD ALLOW THE COAST TO CLEAR OUT FAIRLY WELL
AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON. FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO
FINALLY MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST IN BRITISH COLUMBIA AND THIS WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT
WILL LIKELY MAKE STRATUS MORE PREVALENT. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO
BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF
THE SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SMOKE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE
AREA UNLESS A NEW FIRE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
INLAND AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING MORE MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK.
STARTING ON MONDAY MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO MAKE IT'S WAY
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR
TO BE A TRIGGER TO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS GOING AND INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT LOOKS LIKE
WEDNESDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY
COUNTY. HOWEVER IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT IN THE TIMING OF
A SHORTWAVE OR INCREASED INSTABILITY TO HAVE SOME MORE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION
THERE IS SOME FAIRLY LIMITED STRATUS ALONG THE NORTH
COAST ONCE AGAIN THIS MORNING. KACV AND KCEC ARE EXPECTED TO CLEAR
OUT BY MIDDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE AREA
IS KEEPING THE MARINE INVERSION WEAKER AND ALLOWING CIGS TO BE
HIGHER AND MORE CLEARING AT THE COAST. TYPICAL AFTERNOON GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THE COAST. UKIAH IS EXPECTED TO
SEE SOME STRONGER AFTERNOON WINDS ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT THE CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN AGAIN, BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AFTER 06Z AND
THE CIGS MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LOW, POSSIBLY JUST MVFR WITH PERIODS
OF IFR. MKK
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE IN THE WATERS THIS MORNING,
GENERALLY STILL 15 TO 25 KT WITH LIGHTER WINDS CLOSER TO THE
COAST. THERE ARE SOME WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF 4 TO 6 FEET IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS WITH LIGHTER ONES FARTHER NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH
THESE WINDS. THERE IS ALSO A NORTHWEST SWELL OF 3 TO 5 FEET AT 12
SECONDS.
THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT THROUGH EARLY
SATURDAY. THEN THE WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH, SLIGHTLY AT
FIRST, BUT MORE SO ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO ONLY AROUND 10
KT MONDAY AND TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN
THE WEEK.
A LARGER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS.
THIS IS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA OFF THE MEXICO COAST. THE
CURRENT WAVE MODEL SHOWS THESE BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET AT 14
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD CREATE SOME LARGER BREAKERS THAN
USUAL ON THE SOUTHERN FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED ONCE AGAIN
THIS AFTERNOON IN MENDOCINO, LAKE, AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTIES.
AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS LOW AS ON WEDNESDAY. LAKE
AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY MAY STILL SEE SOME AREAS IN THE TEENS,
HOWEVER MOST OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN THE 20S OR HIGHER.
WINDS EASE FRIDAY, BACK TO MORE TYPICAL AFTERNOON BREEZES, BUT
AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO LOWER BACK INTO THE TEENS AND 20S. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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