684
FXUS66 KEKA 162036
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
136 PM PDT THU JUL 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH
MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK.
* BREEZY AFTERNOON/EVENING WINDS TODAY ACROSS MENDOCINO, LAKE AND
TRINITY COUNTIES. LOCAL AREAS OF LOW RH WILL ELEVATE FIRE
DANGER, ESPECIALLY IN LAKE COUNTY.
* POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
COOLER INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL BOTTOM OUT TODAY AS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THE LOW
WILL ALSO BRING SOME BREEZY WINDS TO THE INTERIOR. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES ONSHORE AT THE PACIFIC
NORTHWEST. COOLER WEATHER CONTINUES TO OCCUR THROUGH TODAY WITH
CONTINUED BREEZY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING INTO
THIS EVENING. THE LOWER HEIGHTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES ALOFT HAVE
WEAKENED THE MARINE INVERSION WHICH HAS ALLOWED THE COAST TO
MOSTLY CLEAR OUT THIS AFTERNOON. INTO TOMORROW THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA
WHICH WILL ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME FOR THE INTERIOR. THE
WARMING TEMPERATURES ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAKE STRATUS MORE PREVALENT
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT,
ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB WINDS ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THIS
SHOULD KEEP SMOKE TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA UNLESS A NEW
FIRE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES SLIGHTLY TO
THE WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE
INLAND AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE MID 90S TO
AROUND 100 IN THE WARMER VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING MORE MINOR TO
LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK.
STARTING MONDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT'S
WAY NORTH AND WEST INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN'T
APPEAR TO BE A TRIGGER TO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS GOING AND
INSTABILITY IS FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. FOR NOW IT
LOOKS LIKE WEDNESDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS
IN TRINITY COUNTY. HOWEVER IT WOULD ONLY TAKE A SMALL SHIFT IN
THE TIMING OF A SHORTWAVE OR INCREASED INSTABILITY TO HAVE SOME
MORE THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION
TYPICAL GUSTY AFTERNOON WINDS FROM THE NORTHWEST ARE
FORECAST ALONG THE COAST. UKIAH IS EXPECTED TO SEE SOME STRONGER
AFTERNOON WINDS ONCE AGAIN. TONIGHT THE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
RETURN AGAIN, BUT IT MAY TAKE UNTIL AROUND OR AFTER 06Z. THE CIGS
MAY NOT BE ALL THAT LOW, POSSIBLY JUST MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR.
CLOUD COVER MAY BE MORE PERSISTENT FOR COASTAL TERMINALS TOMORROW,
ESPECIALLY AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE NEXT
12 HOURS THEN REMAIN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN
WATERS WITH NEAR GALE GUSTS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO LATE THIS
AFTERNOON AND INTO VERY EARLY TOMORROW MORNING. IN GENERAL, WINDS
SHOULD START TO DIMINISH, SLIGHTLY AT FIRST, BUT MORE SO ON
SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ONLY AROUND 10 KT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A LARGER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS.
THIS IS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA OFF THE MEXICO COAST. THE
CURRENT WAVE MODEL SHOWS THESE BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET AT 14
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD CREATE SOME LARGER BREAKERS THAN
USUAL ON THE SOUTHERN FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
STRONGER NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING IN MENDOCINO, LAKE, AND EASTERN TRINITY
COUNTIES. AFTERNOON RH IS EXPECTED TO NOT BE AS LOW AS ON
WEDNESDAY. LAKE AND EASTERN TRINITY COUNTY MAY STILL SEE SOME
AREAS IN THE TEENS, HOWEVER MOST OTHER AREAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IN
THE 20S OR HIGHER. WINDS EASE FRIDAY, BACK TO MORE TYPICAL
AFTERNOON BREEZES, BUT AFTERNOON RH WILL ALSO LOWER BACK INTO THE
TEENS AND 20S. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-475.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 AM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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