289
FXUS66 KEKA 170720
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1220 AM PDT FRI JUL 17 2026
KEY MESSAGES...
* TEMPERATURES WARMING ABOVE NORMAL AGAIN FOR THE WEEKEND WITH MINOR
TO LOCALLY MODERATE HEAT RISK.
* POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE INTERIOR NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL
FOR THE WEEKEND. MOISTURE WILL INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT
WEEK BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE INTERIOR EARLY
TO MID NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OFF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST IS
FORECAST TO MAKE ITS WAY NORTHEAST INTO BRITISH COLUMBIA WHICH WILL
ENABLE TEMPERATURES TO WARM SOME FOR THE INTERIOR OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA AS 850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE. THE WARMING TEMPERATURES
ALOFT WILL LIKELY MAKE STRATUS MORE PREVALENT THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY LIGHT, ALTHOUGH THE 700 MB WINDS
ARE GENERALLY OUT OF THE SOUTH AND THIS SHOULD KEEP SMOKE TO THE
NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA UNLESS A NEW FIRE DEVELOPS TO THE SOUTH.
FOR THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS AND EDGES SLIGHTLY TO THE
WEST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TO THE INLAND
AREAS. HIGHS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BACK IN THE MID 90S TO AROUND 100 IN
THE WARMER VALLEYS. THIS WILL BRING MORE MINOR TO LOCALLY MODERATE
HEAT RISK.
STARTING MONDAY, MONSOONAL MOISTURE IS ANTICIPATED TO MAKE IT'S WAY
NORTH AND WEST INTO THE AREA. AT THIS POINT THERE DOESN'T APPEAR TO
BE A TRIGGER TO GET ANY THUNDERSTORMS GOING AND INSTABILITY IS
FAIRLY LIMITED ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY HAS THE BEST CHANCE
TO SEE SOME THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY WITH MOISTURE FROM THE
REMNANTS OF WHAT IS CURRENTLY TROPICAL STORM ELIDA POSSIBLY MOVING
INTO THE AREA. THIS WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY.
AVIATION
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EASED AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS AFTER
A GUSTY LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. LOW PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO
EXIT THE AREA AND RETREAT NORTH ALONG THE WESTERN SEABOARD,
ALLOWING THE BROAD HIGH PRESSURE TO COMPRESS AND STABILIZE OVER
THE AREA NEXT WEEK. SOME LIFTING OF CEILINGS AND MOISTURE
DEEPENING WERE OBSERVED AS VISIBILITY OVERNIGHT FOR THE PAST FEW
TAF PERIODS. CONDITIONS ARE BEING FORECAST FOR LIFR FLIGHT
CATEGORIES OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING AT THE COASTAL TERMINALS
WITH SEVERAL HOURS OF SUB 500FT CEILINGS WITH LIGHT VARIABLE
WINDS LASTING INTO FRIDAY MORNING AND IMPROVING TO VFR BY THE
AFTERNOON. VFR PREVAILING AT KUKI OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF FRIDAY
WITH WINDS UNDER 10 KTS AND CHANGING BEARINGS EVERY FEW HOURS.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS WILL SPAN LESS AREA OF COVERAGE IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS OVERNIGHT BUT REMAIN HAZARDOUS TO SMALL CRAFTS FOR
FRIDAY AFTER GUSTY PERIODS LATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
WINDS WILL REMAIN HIGHER IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS WITH NEAR GALE GUSTS
IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO INTO VERY EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IN
GENERAL, WINDS SHOULD START TO DIMINISH, SLIGHTLY AT FIRST, BUT MORE
SO ON SUNDAY. WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT ONLY AROUND 10 KT MONDAY AND
TUESDAY BEFORE STARTING TO INCREASE AGAIN LATE IN THE WEEK.
A LARGER SOUTHERLY SWELL IS STARTING TO SHOW UP IN THE MODELS.
THIS IS FROM TROPICAL STORM ELIDA OFF THE MEXICO COAST. THE
CURRENT WAVE MODEL SHOWS THESE BUILDING TO AROUND 4 FEET AT 14
SECONDS ON MONDAY. THIS COULD CREATE SOME LARGER BREAKERS THAN
USUAL ON THE SOUTHERN FACING BEACHES, ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455-470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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