093
FXUS66 KEKA 052019
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
119 PM PDT WED AUG 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
-MODERATE TO MAJOR HEAT RISK CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEK FOR MUCH OF
THE INTERIOR.
-COASTAL STRATUS TO CONTINUE FOR MUCH OF THE NORTH COAST THROUGH
THE AFTERNOON INTO TOMORROW
SYNOPSIS
PERSISTENT HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL REMAIN THROUGH
THE WEEK. INLAND AREAS ARE SUBJECT TO ABNORMALLY HOT TEMPERATURES OF
THROUGH THE WEEK. COASTAL AREAS WILL REMAIN MOSTLY OVERCAST WITH
TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 60S DIRECTLY NEAR THE WATER.
DISCUSSION
A STEADY RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO IMPACT
THE WEST THIS WEEK LEADING TO WARM TO VERY HOT TEMPERATURES FOR THE
INLAND AREAS. MOST INLAND VALLEYS CAN EXPECT HIGH TEMPERATURES
BETWEEN 100-110DEGF THROUGH THE WORK WEEK. THE COAST CONTINUES TO
OFFER SOME RELIEF FROM THIS HEAT. OFFSHORE STRATUS IS BLANKETING
MUCH OF THE WESTERN SEABOARD FROM THE MEXICAN BOARDER UP THROUGH
OREGON. TEMPERATURES WILL STRUGGLE TO REACH 65DEGF FOR COASTAL
COMMUNITIES DUE TO THIS COMPRESSED MARINE LAYER. HOWEVER, ABOVE
AVERAGE SSTS WILL LIMIT THE LIKELIHOOD OF ANY TRUE DAYTIME FOG.
THE WEATHER PATTERN WILL HAVE MINIMAL CHANGES THROUGH THE WEEK AS
THIS HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVERHEAD. A SLIGHT CHANGE
IN WEATHER IS POSSIBLE THIS WEEKEND. CLUSTER AND DETERMINISTIC
GLOBAL MODEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THIS HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BEGINNING TO
EVOLVE INTO A MORE FLATTER RIDGE THROUGH THE WEEKEND LEADING TO
POTENTIAL ZONAL OR EVEN SLIGHT UPPER LEVEL TROUGHING ENTERING NEXT
WEEK. IF THIS SOLUTION MATERIALIZES, IT COULD LEAD TO INCREASED
WINDS NEAR THE SURFACE WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE. THESE WEATHER ELEMENTS TOGETHER CAN LEAD TO INCREASED
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. UNTIL THEN HOWEVER, EXPECT WARM
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES AND FOGGY NIGHTTIME HOURS ALONG THE COAST.
AVIATION
COASTAL STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON WITH BRIEF CLEARING POSSIBLE. LIFR IS FORECASTED THROUGH
18Z 08/06. WINDS WILL BE FORCED BY COASTAL EDDIES WITH KCEC HAVING
SOUTHERLY WINDS AND THE HUMBOLDT BAY AREA HAVING NORTH WINDS. THE
MENDOCINO COAST CAN EXPECT SOUTHERLY WINDS AS WELL. INLAND TERMINALS
SHOULD HAVE VFR CONDITIONS WITH UPSLOPE WINDS BUILDING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS INLAND WILL CALM THROUGH THE EVENING AND CLEAR
SKIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS WELL.
MARINE
GENERALLY LIGHT TO MODERATE WINDS HAVE RETURNED TO THE
WATERS, WITH SOUTHERLY BREEZES CONTINUING NEARSHORE WITH GUSTS UP
TO 20KTS OR SO THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE FAR OUTER WATERS WILL
STILL EXPERIENCE MODERATELY STRONG NORTHERLIES AS WELL. LOCALIZED
AREAS OF 25 KT GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CAPES. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN STEADY THROUGH TOMORROW (THURSDAY) AS WELL.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND, A MORE UNIFORM REGIME OF NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE FORECASTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA. GALES ARE POSSIBLE
OVER THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH THE LIKELIHOOD OF GUSTS
>30KTS OVER 80% FOR MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MOST OF NEXT WEEK. CONDITIONS WITH THESE INCREASED WINDS
WILL LIKELY CAUSE FOR MARINE HAZARDS. PLAN ANY SEAFARING
ACCORDINGLY WITH THIS WEATHER CHANGE HAPPENING FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN HOT AND DRY
THROUGH THE REST OF THE WORK WEEK. THIS HEAT WAVE WILL LIKELY CAUSE
A DRASTIC INCREASE IN FIRE RISK IN RECEPTIVE FUELS. THIS WEEKEND,
THE SYNOPTIC WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO CHANGE EVER SO SLIGHTLY.
THIS CHANGE WILL BE FELT BY AN INCREASE IN THE LIKELIHOOD OF
STRONGER VALLEY WINDS EACH AFTERNOON. THE PRIMARY AREAS OF CONCERN
ARE IN THE EASTERN TRINITY RIVER VALLEY AND ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF
CLEAR LAKE IN LAKE COUNTY. WATCH FOR UPDATES AS FORECAST CONFIDENCE
INCREASES ON THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER CHANGE.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ105-106-108-
116-117.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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