029
FXUS66 KEKA 102212
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
312 PM PDT MON AUG 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL HOT, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* SMOKEY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM THE MP 18 FIRE IN THE TRINITY RIVER
VALLEY.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS WEEK OR OVER
THE WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO WEAKEN THIS WEEK, BUT SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR ARE EXPECTED THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH BREEZY
NORTHWEST WINDS.
DISCUSSION
SMOKE FROM THE MP 18 FIRE CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON FIRE
CONTAINMENT, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO CARRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE RESPONSIBLE FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD OF HOT
TEMPERATURES IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO WEAKEN. TEMPERATURES WILL TREND
COOLER AS A RESULT, BUT WILL STILL BE HOT THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THE
HEAT HAS GREATLY DRIED OUT THE REGION AND FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL
BE ELEVATED WITH ANY INCREASE IN WINDS. SEE THE FIRE WEATHER SECTION
BELOW.
THERE WILL BE A MORE NOTICEABLE DROP IN INTERIOR TEMPERATURES
THURSDAY AS A TROUGHING PATTERN SETTLES OVER THE REGION. HIGH
TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS WILL STRUGGLE TO BREAK 90 BY
FRIDAY, AND WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER THROUGH THE WEEKEND. CLUSTERS
SHOW A POTENTIAL BRIEF REBOUND IN THE RIDGE LATE IN THE WEEKEND
BEFORE A DEEPER AREA OF LOW PRESSURE POTENTIALLY DEVELOPS.
THE PATTERN HAS BEEN ANALYZED FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORM
FORMATION UNDER THE TROUGHING, INCLUDING FROM VARIOUS SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCES THAT PASS THROUGH. THESE ARE POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AT 5 TO 10 PERCENT THROUGH TRINITY
SISKIYOU COUNTIES. MODELED AVAILABLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY HAS
DECREASED, BUT THE PATTERN WILL CONTINUE TO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
DEVIATIONS IN MODELED TRENDS.
AVIATION
WINDS HAVE SWITCHED BEARINGS FROM SOUTHERLY TO
NORTHERLY AT KCEC AS OF 20Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS AS COASTAL
STRATUS HAS SCATTERED AND CLEARED OUT. GUSTS AT KCEC ARE EXPECTED
TO REACH 22KTS WITH SUSTAINED WINDS AT 10-12KTS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO EASE AT KCEC AROUND 04Z AND SWITCH BEARINGS, BACK TO
SOUTHERLY INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING, WITH LIFR CEILINGS BELOW
500FT AND POSSIBLY FOG OR MARINE STRATUS ADVECTION REDUCING
VISIBILITY TO 1/2 MILE OR LESS. WINDS TURN NORTHERLY AGAIN
TUESDAY MORNING. KACV NOT QUITE AS GUSTY BUT NORTHERLIES WITH A
MORE WESTERLY COMPONENT TURNING SOUTHERLY AFTER SUNSET AND EASING
TO 5 KNOTS OR BELOW. LIFR AT KACV WILL BE PRIMARILY FROM CEILINGS
BELOW 500 FT AND NOT AS MUCH FROM LOWER VISIBILITY ALTHOUGH 3-5
MILE VIS WITH LIGHT FOG OR MIST WILL LIKELY BE THE OBSCURATION.
GFS DOES HAVE A FEW HOURS OF 1/2MILE VIS WHICH USUALLY EQUATES TO
A FEW HOURS OF 2SM WITH BR/MIST. /EYS
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE TO BUILD THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON
AND WILL PEAK AROUND SUNSET. THE LARGEST FETCH AREA BEING IN THE
NORTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 40+ KTS. SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO, THE WIND FIELD WILL BE WIDE AS IT FANS OUT INTO THE
SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH GUSTS UP TO 38KTS OR SO. WIND WAVE
ACTION FROM THE NORTHERLIES WILL GIVE 10-12FT WAVE HEIGHTS AND
PERIODS IN AS MANY SECONDS, CREATING STEEP AND DANGEROUS SEA
CONDITIONS. THE GALE WARNING FOR THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN OUTER
WATERS IS EXTENDED THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION TO THE GALE
WARNING THERE IS ALSO A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SC.Y) FOR THE INNER
COASTAL WATERS, NORTH AND SOUTH FOR STEEP SEAS. OTHERWISE, A LONG
PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL WITH < 1 FT WAVE HEIGHT, IS DUE TO ARRIVE
OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY MORNING TUESDAY. /EYS
FIRE WEATHER
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY WITH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING BREEZES.
WINDS WILL BE STRONGEST CHANNELED THROUGH THE TERRAIN. ADDITIONALLY,
THE RIDGES AROUND THE KING RANGE WILL CONTINUE TO SEE STRONG
NORTHERLY WINDS, AND THERE WILL BE A NORTHEAST WIND SURGE OVERNIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY FOR THE INTERIOR RIDGES OF DEL NORTE. A SIMILAR
WIND PATTERN WILL REMAIN TUESDAY.
MINIMUM RH AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL IMPROVE NOTICEABLY TUESDAY
WITH MOISTENING WESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGHING PATTERN THEN
TAKES SHAPE, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GOOD RECOVERIES AND ALSO INCREASES
CHANCES FOR A DEEPENED MARINE LAYER TO INFILTRATE FARTHER INTO THE
INTERIOR. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR DRY THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK
IN THE TRINITIES AND YOLLA BOLLA MOUNTAINS, AND THESE ARE POSSIBLE
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW, AT 5 TO 10 PERCENT THROUGH
TRINITY SISKIYOU COUNTIES, WITH THE HIGHEST CHANCES CURRENTLY FRIDAY.
COASTAL FLOODING
SEA LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN APPROXIMATELY
0.8 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDE LEVEL IN HUMBOLDT BAY. TIDES WILL
BECOME MORE AMPLIFIED EARLY THIS WEEK FOLLOWING THE LUNAR CYCLE.
THE PREDICTED TIDE AT THE NORTH SPIT IS 7.95 FT MLLW AT 10:21 PM
TONIGHT AND THEN 7.99 FT MLLW AT 11:17 PM ON TUESDAY THE 11TH. IF
THE TIDE CONTINUES TO RUN AT AROUND 0.8 FT ABOVE PREDICTED, THIS
COULD RESULT IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WITH
MINOR IMPACTS IN KING SALMON AND POSSIBLY A FEW OTHER LOCATIONS
AROUND THE BAY. ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE
FOR THE 12:10 AM HIGH TIDE THURSDAY MORNING.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
TUESDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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