061
FXUS66 KEKA 112151
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
251 PM PDT TUE AUG 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* SLIGHTLY COOLER, BUT STILL HOT, INTERIOR TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.
* SMOKEY CONDITIONS LIKELY FROM THE MP 18 FIRE, FOCUSED IN THE
TRINITY RIVER VALLEY.
* SLIGHT CHANCE OF INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE IN THE WEEK AND INTO
SATURDAY
* MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY AT THE
EVENING HIGH TIDE TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
SYNOPSIS
INTERIOR TEMPERATURES TREND BELOW NORMAL LATE IN THE
WEEK. COASTAL AREAS CONTINUE TO HAVE NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
WITH OVERNIGHT STRATUS CLEARING IN THE AFTERNOONS ALONG WITH
BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR DRY
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE INTERIOR LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO SATURDAY.
DISCUSSION
SMOKE FROM THE MP 18 FIRE CONTINUES TO IMPACT AIR
QUALITY OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA, PARTICULARLY IN THE INTERIOR
VALLEYS OF HUMBOLDT AND TRINITY COUNTIES. DEPENDING ON FIRE
CONTAINMENT, EXPECT A SIMILAR PATTERN TO CARRY THROUGH THE WEEK.
THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION IS SHOWING SIGNS OF WEAKENING AS MORE OF
A TROUGHING PATTERN DEVELOPS, AND THIS WILL HELP CLEAR OUT THE
SMOKE MORE EFFICIENTLY OVER THE COMING AFTERNOONS.
THE TROUGHING WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER INTERIOR DAYTIME HIGHS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE NEAR OR BELOW CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS WEDNESDAY,
FOLLOWED BY CONTINUED LOWERING TO BELOW NORMALS THROUGH THE EXTENDED
FORECAST. THE MARINE LAYER IS DEEPENING AND EXTENDING FARTHER
INLAND, AND WILL BE CONDUCIVE TO PRODUCING LIGHT DRIZZLE OVER THE
COMING DAYS.
THE BROAD TROUGHING AND EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES WILL ALSO BRING LOW
CHANCES FOR SOME SHOWERS OR PERHAPS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. A WEAK
SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE
MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY, BUT EVEN THE MOST
AGGRESSIVE MODES KEEP THE MOISTURE SE OF LAKE COUNTY AT THIS TIME.
THIS DAY WILL STILL BE WATCHED REGARDING ANY DRY LIGHTNING POTENTIAL
THROUGH TRINITY COUNTY (5%), ESPECIALLY IF THE MOISTURE FLUX NUDGES
NORTHWEST AT ALL.
A SECONDARY WAVE WILL MOVE NE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CARRY HIGHER INSTABILITY AND
MOISTURE (THOUGH STILL MEAGER), GIVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER CHANCE
FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (5-10% OVER TRINTY COUNTY NORTHWARD
THROUGH FAR EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY, AND 10-15% OVER SISKIYOU
COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST DEL NORTE). THERE WOULD BE A POTENTIAL
FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY AS WELL IF STORMS OCCUR AT ALL.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES WILL BE ON THE HIGHER SIDE, AND
PRECIPITATION REACHING THE GROUND WOULD BE POSSIBLE. THAT SAID,
THIS IS STILL A VERY LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST; HOWEVER, IT WILL
STILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY DUE TO HISTORICAL POOR MODEL
HANDLING OF THE SETUP TYPE AND THE IMPACT EVEN A LITTLE LIGHTNING
WOULD HAVE REGARDING FIRE POTENTIAL OVER THE VERY DRY VEGETATION.
AVIATION
MARINE STRATUS IS FORCING LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST
OF CALIFORNIA THIS MORNING. SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE PRESENT ALONG MOST
OF THE LOST COAST AND SHOULD BE EXPECTED THROUGH THE MORNING AS
WELL. STRONGER NW WINDS ARE LIKELY TO DEVELOP BETWEEN 20Z (+/- 1 HR)
FOR THE DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT COASTLINES WHICH SHOULD INCREASE THE
LIKELIHOOD OF MIXING AND VFR CONDITIONS. OVERNIGHT LIFR/IFR IS
EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE COASTLINE WITH LIGHT, SOUTHERLY WINDS.
INLAND TERMINALS CAN EXPECT VFR (AWAY FROM SMOKEY AREAS). AFTERNOONS
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO FOLLOW THE TERRAIN WITH UPVALLEY FLOWS THAT
ARE LIKELY TO BE GUSTY. SMOKE FROM WILD FIRES COULD POSE LOCALIZED
AREAS OF MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION IN ADDITION TO SFC/SLANT VISIBILITY
ISSUES, ESPECIALLY FOR THE TRINITY RIVER VALLEY AND THE HUMBOLDT BAY
AREAS.
MARINE
STRONG NORTHERLIES WITH GALE CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN THE
OUTER WATERS. THESE WINDS ARE GENERATED STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS UP
TO 12 FT AT 10 TO 11 SECONDS. THESE LARGER SEAS WILL PERIODICALLY
MIGRATE INTO THE INNER WATERS FOLLOWING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING
STRONGER WIND SURGES. SEAS OF UP TO 11 FT HAVE OCCASIONALLY BEEN
OBSERVED AT THE NORTH SPIT BUOY. NORTHERLY WINDS WILL DROP BELOW
25 KTS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AS TROUGHING ENTERS THE REGION. THE
NORTHERLIES WILL DROP MORE SUBSTANTIALLY FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS TROUGHING WEAKENS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT.
FIRE WEATHER
ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS CONTINUE WITHIN
THE MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE AND IN THE KING RANGE AS WINDS REMAIN
GUSTY. IN DEL NORTE, EASTERLY WINDS GUSTS OF UP TO 30 MPH ARE
POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SIMILARLY IN THE KING
RANGE THERE WILL BE GUSTY AFTERNOON NORTHERLY WINDS WITH POORER
OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
MINIMUM RH AND OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WITH
MOISTENING WESTERLY FLOW AND LOWER DAYTIME HIGHS FROM THE
BREAKDOWN OF THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE. A TROUGHING PATTERN THEN
TAKES SHAPE, WHICH WILL MAINTAIN GOOD RECOVERIES AND ALSO
INCREASES CHANCES FOR A DEEPENED MARINE LAYER TO INFILTRATE
FARTHER INTO THE INTERIOR.
A WEAK SURGE OF MONSOON MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
DISTURBANCE MAY CLIP PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN ZONES THURSDAY, BUT
EVEN THE MOST AGGRESSIVE MODES KEEP THE MOISTURE SE OF LAKE COUNTY AT
THIS TIME. THIS DAY WILL STILL BE WATCHED REGARDING ANY DRY
LIGHTNING POTENTIAL THROUGH TRINITY COUNTY (5%), ESPECIALLY IF THE
MOISTURE FLUX NUDGES NORTHWEST AT ALL.
A SECONDARY WAVE WILL MOVE NE OVER NORTHERN CALIFORNIA FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL CARRY HIGHER INSTABILITY
AND MOISTURE (THOUGH STILL MEAGER), GIVING A SLIGHTLY HIGHER
CHANCE FOR SOME THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY (5-10% OVER TRINTY COUNTY
NORTHWARD THROUGH FAR EASTERN DEL NORTE COUNTY, AND 15% OVER
SISKIYOU COUNTY AND FAR NORTHEAST DEL NORTE). THERE WOULD BE A
POTENTIAL FOR NOCTURNAL ACTIVITY LATE FRIDAY AS WELL IF STORMS
OCCUR AT ALL. STORM MOVEMENT WOULD BE TO THE NORTH/NORTHEAST AT
JUST OVER 20MPH.
COASTAL FLOODING
MEASURED SEA LEVELS CONTINUE TO RUN
APPROXIMATELY 0.7 TO 0.8 FT ABOVE THE PREDICTED TIDE LEVEL IN
HUMBOLDT BAY. THE PREDICTED TIDE AT THE NORTH SPIT TIDE GAUGE IS
7.99 FT MLLW AT 11:17 PM ON TONIGHT. IF THE TIDE CONTINUES TO RUN AT
AROUND 0.8 FT ABOVE PREDICTED, THE POSSIBLE SEA LEVEL COULD RESULT
IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY WITH MINOR IMPACTS IN
KING SALMON AND POSSIBLY A FEW OTHER LOCALIZED AREAS AROUND THE BAY.
ADDITIONAL MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE FOR THE 12:10 AM HIGH
TIDE EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HOWEVER, ASTRONOMICAL TIDES ARE ONLY
7.84 SO THE THE ANOMALY WOULD NEED TO INCREASE TO NEARLY A FOOT.
THIS IS POSSIBLE AS NORTHERLY WINDS WILL BE DIMINISHING AND MAY
LOCALLY BECOME SOUTHERLY WHICH WOULD PUSH MORE WATER INTO HUMBOLDT
BAY. THAT SAID, ANY FLOODING WILL BE VERY MINOR IF IT OCCURS.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ103.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY FROM 10 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 AM PDT
WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ415.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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