235
FXUS66 KEKA 032148
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
248 PM PDT THU SEP 3 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN
OVER THE REGION TONIGHT/FRIDAY AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER
OVER THE WEEKEND.
* OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR WILL TURN CHILLY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR FROST FRIDAY MORNING AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS
LIGHT RAINFALL CHANCES CONTINUE THIS EVENING AS A
WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES BY. OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE
INTERIOR WILL TURN CHILLY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR FROST FRIDAY
MORNING AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL
BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN CHANCES OVER ON FRIDAY AND PERIODS OF
UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
A SECOND COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BY THE AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT.
THIS WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF
COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THE ENVIRONMENT ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING,
MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE INTERIOR. IF CLOUDS
DO CLEAR OUT AND FOG DOES NOT DEVELOP, AREAS OF FROST WILL BE LIKELY
FOR THE INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE AMOUNT OF
CLEARING OR EVEN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY WITH THE
NUMEROUS TROUGHS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL ALSO BRING
A SHOT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE UNCERTAINTY,
ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN TRINITY, NORTHEASTERN
MENDOCINO, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DUE TO THE FORECAST LOWS
BEING IN THE MID 30S AND THE FACT THESE COLD TEMPERATURES ARE
OCCURRING SO EARLY IN METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
THE BROAD UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL STALL AHEAD OF BLOCKED FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING IN.
MORE AT LEAST WEAK TROUGHING MAY REDEVELOP BEHIND IT. THIS GIVES
MIXED SIGNALS FOR THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. THERE WILL LOOK TO BE
SOME SORT OF WARMUP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT IF IT OCCURS, IT
SHOULD BE SHORT LIVED IF THE TROUGHS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH.
THERE ARE ALSO QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY
STREAM NORTHEAST TOWARD THE REGION FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS
WELL OFF THE COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE VARIANCE IN
POSSIBILITIES RANGING FROM COMPLETELY DRY AFTER SUNDAY TO SEVERAL
CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.
AVIATION...(18Z TAFS)
RAIN SHOWERS CONTINUE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
THE REGION, PARTICULARLY IN THE NORTH IN HUMBOLDT, DEL NORTE, AND
TRINITY COUNTIES. CEILINGS HAVE BEEN VARIABLE, RANGING FROM LIFR
TO VFR AS THE SHOWERS AND CLOUD BANDS MOVE THROUGH THE AREA.
FARTHER SOUTH THE LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS ARE NOW STARTING TO CLEAR OUT
AND VFR IS PREVAILING AT UKI. THE OCCASIONAL SHOWERS WILL AND
POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL
NORTE COASTS INTO TONIGHT WITH CEILINGS FALLING WITH EACH PASSING
SHOWER. SOME AREAS OF FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING.
MARINE
A TROUGH FROM THE NORTH IS BRINGING STEEP NW SWELL AT 8
TO 11 FT AT 11 SECONDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS. WITH BUOYS REPORTING
OVER 10 FEET A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WATERS
NORTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS
WILL BE LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN,
NORTHERLIES WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY OVER
THE SOUTHERN WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE NORTHERLIES DO
NOT LOOK TO FULLY STRENGTHEN AGAIN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK.
HURRICANE MARIE WILL DELIVER A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL
SATURDAY. THOUGH SMALL, AT AROUND 4 FT AT 16 SECONDS, IS A LARGER
THAN TYPICAL SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION.
BEACH HAZARDS
HURRICANE MARIE WILL USHER IN A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT 16 SECONDS FOR SOUTH FACING BEACHES
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS, THERE COULD BE A RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SWELL COMES IN SLIGHTLY LARGER.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A UNIQUE HAZARD, WITH UP TO 30 MINUTES BETWEEN
WAVES. LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE BEACH WITHOUT
WARNING, SWEEPING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES, AND
BEACHES. THESE SNEAKER WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LARGE OBJECTS SUCH AS
LOGS, CRUSHING ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. EVEN ANKLE TO KNEE DEEP
WATER CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND DRAG YOU OUT WHEN A SNEAKER WAVE HITS.
PAY ATTENTION AND STAY ABOVE THE HIGH WATER LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO
STAY SAFE. IF THE GROUND IS WET, WAVES HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY.
STAY SAFE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 3 AM TO 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR CAZ108-110-
111-114.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ450-470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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