383
FXUS66 KEKA 041732
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1032 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026
AVIATION... 18Z UPDATE
MVFR CEILINGS REMAIN FOR MUCH OF NW CA
THIS MORNING. SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS CLEAR CONDITIONS OFF THE
COAST WHICH WILL LIKELY LEAD TO CLEARING TO VFR ALONG THE COAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SOUTHERLY WINDS CONTINUE THROUGH THE
MORNING BEFORE VEERING TO SW AND EVENTUALLY W THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON AS WELL. THIS ONSHORE WIND COULD BRING HAZE DUE TO LARGE
BREAKING WAVES, YET MINIMAL IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED. MODELS SUGGEST
THE DEEP MARINE LAYER WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING LEADING TO
MVFR CEILINGS FROM 04Z ONWARD BEFORE EARLY MORNING CLEARING ALONG
THE COAST. INLAND TERMINALS IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE CO. CAN EXPECT
VFR WITH NORTH WINDS. NORTHERN INLAND TERMINALS CAN EXPECT MVFR
WITH CLOUDS BLOCKING SOME OF THE TALLER MOUNTAINS IN TRINITY,
HUMBOLDT, AND DEL NORTE CO.
PREV DISCUSSION
/ISSUED 1249 AM PDT FRI SEP 4 2026/
KEY MESSAGES...
* A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT RAIN OVER
THE REGION TODAY AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE WEEKEND.
* OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR WILL TURN CHILLY,
BRINGING CHANCES FOR FROST THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.
SYNOPSIS...EARLY THIS MORNING, TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR WILL
TURN CHILLY, BRINGING CHANCES FOR FROST THIS MORNING AND THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. A GENERAL TROUGHING PATTERN WILL BRING ADDITIONAL LIGHT
RAIN CHANCES TODAY AND PERIODS OF UNSETTLED WEATHER OVER THE
WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION...A SECOND COLDER AND SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE BY THE AREA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A COUPLE OF COASTAL THUNDERSTORMS.
AS THE ENVIRONMENT ATTEMPTS TO CLEAR OUT THROUGH THIS MORNING,
MUCH COOLER OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL DEVELOP FOR THE INTERIOR. IF
CLOUDS DO CLEAR OUT AND FOG DOES NOT DEVELOP, AREAS OF FROST WILL
BE LIKELY FOR THE INTERIOR. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION ON THE
AMOUNT OF CLEARING OR EVEN ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS, ESPECIALLY
WITH THE NUMEROUS TROUGHS FORECAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WILL
ALSO BRING A SHOT FOR SOME ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE THE
UNCERTAINTY, A FROST ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR SOUTHERN
TRINITY, NORTHEASTERN MENDOCINO, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTIES DUE TO
THE FORECAST LOWS BEING IN THE MID 30S AND THE FACT THESE COLD
TEMPERATURES ARE OCCURRING SO EARLY IN METEOROLOGICAL FALL.
THE BROAD UPPER LOW TO THE NORTH WILL STALL AHEAD OF BLOCKED FLOW
THROUGH THE WEEKEND, WITH WEAKER SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES ROTATING IN.
MORE WEAK TROUGHING MAY REDEVELOP BEHIND IT. THIS GIVES MIXED
SIGNALS FOR THE EXTENDED OUTLOOK. THERE LOOKS TO BE SOME SORT OF
WARMUP EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK, BUT IF IT OCCURS, IT SHOULD BE SHORT
LIVED IF THE TROUGHS CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH. THERE ARE ALSO
QUESTIONS ABOUT WHETHER TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY STREAM NORTHEAST
TOWARD THE REGION FROM DECAYING TROPICAL SYSTEMS WELL OFF THE
COAST. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS A LARGE VARIANCE IN POSSIBILITIES
RANGING FROM COMPLETELY DRY AFTER SUNDAY TO SEVERAL CHANCES OF
SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY THUNDERSTORMS MID TO LATE WEEK.
MARINE...A TROUGH FROM THE NORTH IS BRINGING STEEP NW SWELL AT 8
TO 11 FT AT 11 SECONDS TO MUCH OF THE WATERS. WITH BUOYS REPORTING
OVER 10 FEET A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR WATERS NORTH
OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WATERS THROUGH SATURDAY. THEN, NORTHERLIES
WILL STRENGTHEN SOME THROUGH THE WEEKEND, MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHERN
WATERS SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. THE NORTHERLIES DO NOT LOOK TO FULLY
STRENGTHEN AGAIN UNTIL EARLY NEXT WEEK. HURRICANE MARIE WILL DELIVER
A LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELL SATURDAY. THOUGH SMALL, AT AROUND 4 FT
AT 16 SECONDS, IS A LARGER THAN TYPICAL SWELL FROM THIS DIRECTION.
BEACH HAZARDS...HURRICANE MARIE WILL USHER IN A LONG PERIOD
SOUTHERLY SWELL OF 3-4 FEET AT 16 SECONDS FOR SOUTH FACING BEACHES
BY SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. THUS, THERE COULD BE A RISK OF SNEAKER
WAVES, ESPECIALLY IF THE SWELL COMES IN SLIGHTLY LARGER.
SNEAKER WAVES ARE A UNIQUE HAZARD, WITH UP TO 30 MINUTES BETWEEN
WAVES. LARGE, UNEXPECTED WAVES CAN SWEEP ACROSS THE BEACH WITHOUT
WARNING, SWEEPING PEOPLE INTO THE SEA FROM ROCKS, JETTIES, AND
BEACHES. THESE SNEAKER WAVES CAN ALSO MOVE LARGE OBJECTS SUCH AS
LOGS, CRUSHING ANYONE CAUGHT UNDERNEATH. EVEN ANKLE TO KNEE DEEP
WATER CAN KNOCK YOU DOWN AND DRAG YOU OUT WHEN A SNEAKER WAVE HITS.
PAY ATTENTION AND STAY ABOVE THE HIGH WATER LINE AND ANY WET SAND TO
STAY SAFE. IF THE GROUND IS WET, WAVES HAVE SURGED THERE RECENTLY.
STAY SAFE AND NEVER TURN YOUR BACK ON THE OCEAN!
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
EVENING FOR CAZ104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ450-470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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