273
FXUS66 KEKA 091021
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
321 AM PDT WED SEP 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES LIKELY THROUGH THURSDAY, INCLUDING
ALONG THE COAST.
* LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
WEDNESDAY.
*CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAINFALL FOR DEL NORTE OR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT
SATURDAY.
*LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND FOR
SOUTHERN AREAS THAT STAY DRIER.
SYNOPSIS
MUCH WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TODAY THROUGH
THURSDAY, WITH WARM TEMPERATURES EVEN AT THE COAST. BREEZY
OFFSHORE WIND WILL BRING LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEDNESDAY. COOLER
TEMPERATURES RETURN LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, WITH SOME
CHANCES FOR LIGHT RAIN FOR THE NORTHERN END OF THE AREA.
DISCUSSION
BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE THROUGH THURSDAY WILL BRING
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES, BOTH TO THE INTERIOR AND THE
COAST. WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY, THE RIDGE STRENGTHENS, BRINGING
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE TRIPLE DIGIT TEMPERATURES TO MOST OF THE
INTERIOR VALLEYS. THIS INCLUDES VALLEYS CLOSE TO THE COAST WHICH
MAY NOT HAVE EXPERIENCED TEMPERATURES THIS HIGH SO FAR THIS YEAR,
INCLUDING GARBERVILLE AND THE EEL RIVER VALLEY. INTERIOR VALLEYS
ARE LIKELY TO SEE OVERNIGHT LOWS ALSO TREND UPWARDS INTO THE 50S
OR LOW 60S. TEMPERATURES THIS LOW IS PROVIDING ENOUGH COOLING AT
NIGHT TO LOWER THE HEATRISK WHICH HAS ALSO KEPT CONDITIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA. STILL, INTERIOR AREAS WILL SEE WIDESPREAD
MODERATE HEATRISK WHICH CORRESPONDS TO A MODERATE RISK FOR HEAT-
RELATED ILLNESS TO THOSE WITHOUT PROPER COOLING. DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER AND STAY SAFE OUT THERE!
COASTAL AREAS ALSO CONTINUE TO WARM AS OFFSHORE FLOW CONTINUES TO
INHIBIT COASTAL STRATUS FORMATION WITH 70S POSSIBLE AT THE
IMMEDIATE COAST AND 80S POSSIBLE JUST A FEW MILES INLAND ON
WEDNESDAY. OFFSHORE FLOW WEAKENS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY,
WHICH MAY SUPPORT MORE COASTAL STRATUS TO FORM OR MOVE ONSHORE.
CURRENTLY, STRATUS IS LIKELY TO CLEAR AGAIN BY THE AFTERNOON AND
RELATIVELY LIGHT SEA BREEZES WILL STILL SUPPORT A PLEASANT DAY IN
THE MID TO HIGH 60S.
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE FROM THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE MARIE
ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL COMPLICATE THE FORECAST SOMEWHAT.
INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO BE MODELED NEAR ZERO WITH A LESS THAN 5%
CHANCE FOR MUCAPE OVER 100 J/KG. STILL, CLOUD COVER COULD BRING
SLIGHTLY LOWER HIGH TEMPERATURES THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED
WEDNESDAY FOR THE FAR SOUTHERN ZONES, ALONG WITH A FEW VIRGA
SHOWERS.
TROUGHING REBUILDS LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, RETURNING NEAR
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND COASTAL STRATUS BY FRIDAY. BY THIS
WEEKEND, MUCH OF THE INTERIOR IS FORECAST TO BE IN THE 70S AND 80S
WITH THE COAST IN THE LOW 60S. A WEAK FRONT MAY BRING LIGHT RAIN
TO DEL NORTE AND NORTHERN HUMBOLDT COUNTIES ON SATURDAY, BUT
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW. THERE IS AROUND A 50% CHANCE FOR ANY
MEASURABLE RAIN FOR DEL NORTE AND 20% FOR NORTHERN HUMBOLDT.
CHANCES FOR A TENTH OF AN INCH ARE AROUND 20% IN DEL NORTE
COUNTY. /JB
AVIATION...(6Z TAFS)
DRYING FROM INCREASING OFFSHORE FLOW WILL
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS. THERE MAY BE A FEW INSTANCES
OF GROUND FOG EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING, BUT CHANCES FOR THIS ARE
ONLY 10-20%. SURFACE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WHILE THE INTERIOR HIGHER
ELEVATIONS SEE GUSTY EASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY.
CHANCES FOR COASTAL STRATUS BEGIN TO INCREASE AGAIN LATER AFTER 2Z
THURSDAY.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE EASED AND WIND-DRIVEN SEAS HAVE
STARTED TO SUBSIDE. BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS RETURN THURSDAY AND
ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. ALONG WITH WIND DRIVEN SEAS, THERE WILL BE SOME SMALL
LONG PERIOD SOUTHERLY SWELLS UP TO THREE FEET WILL EXIST IN THE
WATER THURSDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LOWER
AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND WITH A PASSING TROUGH.
FIRE WEATHER
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARRIVED AS HIGH
PRESSURE STRENGTHENS. HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE INTERIOR VALLEYS
WILL CLIMB IN THE HIGH 90S TO JUST OVER 100 THROUGH THURSDAY.
AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL FALL INTO THE TEENS OR SINGLE
DIGITS IN THE EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA. OFFSHORE FLOW
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT WILL RESULT IN POOR OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES FOR
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND WINDS MAY BE LOCALLY BREEZY. ELEVATED TO
LOCALLY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF DEL NORTE, TRINITY, AND HUMBOLDT COUNTIES
TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING WITH THESE BREEZY WINDS. TROUGHING
LATE THIS WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND WILL RETURN COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A DEEPER MARINE LAYER. AFTERNOON WESTERLY TO NORTHWESTERLY
WINDS WILL INCREASE LATE IN THE WEEK, AND INTO THE WEEKEND,
PARTICULARLY ON SATURDAY. THE LARGEST AREAS OF CONCERN THROUGH
THAT PERIOD WILL BE AREAS SOUTH, SUCH AS LAKE COUNTY, THAT WILL
REMAIN DRY.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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