799
FXUS66 KEKA 142038
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
138 PM PDT MON SEP 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY ACROSS THE AREA.
* HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BRING WARMER TEMPERATURES TUESDAY.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A 10 TO 15 PERCENT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN TRINITY COUNTY ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON.
SYNOPSIS
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFFSHORE WILL
STRENGTHEN THE ONSHORE PRESSURE GRADIENT AGAINST THE INTERIOR
THERMAL LOW INTO EARLY THIS WEEK. EXPECT A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER
PINNED ALONG THE COAST WHILE THE INTERIOR VALLEYS HAVE DRY AND
SEASONABLY WARM CONDITIONS. FOR WEDNESDAY, AN EVOLVING UPPER LOW
WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND SLIGHT CHANCE FOR INTERIOR
THUNDERSTORMS.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE BRINGING SUNNY
SKIES AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BREEZY WINDS
STARTED ALONG THE COAST AND HAVE WORKED THEIR WAY INLAND. TONIGHT
FOG AND STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE COAST AGAIN,
BUT MAY TAKE THEIR TIME EXPANDING UP TO CRESCENT CITY. SHELTER
COVE AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN CLEAR TONIGHT. TUESDAY INLAND AREAS AREAS ARE EXPECTED
TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S IN SOME OF
THE WARMER AREAS. STRATUS IS EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY MORNING.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AN UPPER LEVEL LOW IS EXPECTED TO DROP SOUTH
AND WILL LIKELY MOVE OVER NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT, HOWEVER THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOW REMAINS FAIRLY UNCERTAIN. FOR NOW HAVE ADDED THUNDERSTORMS
TO TRINITY COUNTY AND THE YOLLA BOLLA MOUNTAINS DOWN IN MENDOCINO
COUNTY. THERE ARE A FEW MODELS THAT SHOW SOME SHOWERS MAKING
THEIR WAY INTO DEL NORTE COUNTY, BUT THE INSTABILITY MAY BE TOO
WEAK FOR THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE HAS INCREASED ENOUGH TO ADD
THEM TO THE FORECAST, BUT REMAINS FAIRLY LOW STILL. DEPENDING ON
HOW FAST THIS LOW MOVES OUT OF THE AREA THERE COULD BE A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THAT LINGER INTO THURSDAY. AT THIS POINT IT LOOKS
LIKE THESE WOULD JUST BE IN NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY. WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY INLAND TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES
COOLER THAN ON TUESDAY AS THE LOW MOVES OVERHEAD. IT IS UNCERTAIN
EXACTLY HOW THIS WILL IMPACT THE MARINE LAYER, BUT MOST LIKELY THE
COAST WILL SEE SOME AFTERNOON CLEARING.
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BACK OVER THE AREA AND
TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO SEE A FEW DEGREES OF WARMING AGAIN.
BREEZY NORTH WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO RETURN OVER THE WEEKEND. MKK
AVIATION
HIGH PRESSURE AND OFFSHORE FLOW ARE BRINGING VFR
CONDITIONS AND BREEZY WINDS TO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. TONIGHT
STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO RETURN. THE HREF SHOWS THIS RETURNING ABOUT
06Z AT ACV AND IT MAY BE AROUND 12Z FOR KCEC. THERE IS STILL SOME
UNCERTAINTY ON THIS, BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THE OFFSHORE FLOW IS
WEAKER THAN THIS MORNING SO EXPECT THERE WILL BE MORE STRATUS.
THE CIGS WITH THIS STRATUS ARE EXPECTED TO BE IFR OR LIFR, BUT
THICK FOG IS NOT EXPECTED AT THIS POINT. INLAND AREAS WILL SEE
STRATUS UP THE USUAL RIVER VALLEYS, BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT INTO KUKI. MKK
MARINE
HIGH PRESSURE IS BRINGING STRONG TO NEAR GALE FORCE
WINDS THIS AFTERNOON, ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE AREA OUTER WATERS.
TONIGHT THESE WILL DIMINISH CLOSER TO THE COAST, ALTHOUGH WAVES
MAY REMAIN STEEP. TUESDAY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE SIMILAR TO
TODAY. THESE WILL GENERATE STEEP WIND DRIVEN WAVES OF 8 TO 10
FEET. WINDS ARE STILL EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY DIMINISH SLIGHTLY
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON WEDNESDAY AND MORE SIGNIFICANTLY
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES DOWN OVER THE AREA.
SOME MODELS DO SHOW THESE WINDS DIMINISHING EARLIER, BUT
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON THE EXACT TIMING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED THURSDAY AS THE LOW MOVES THROUGH AND THEN OUT OF THE
AREA. NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ON FRIDAY AND MORE
SO OVER THE WEEKEND. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OFF THE COAST WILL
CONTINUE THE WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA
THROUGH TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON OR OVERNIGHT AN UPPER LOW HAS
THE POTENTIAL TO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO TRINITY COUNTY.
THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON THESE STORMS, BUT HAVE NOW
ADDED THEM TO THE FORECAST IN TRINITY COUNTY AND DOWN INTO THE
YOLLA BOLLA MOUNTAINS IN MENDOCINO COUNTY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE
SOME RAIN WITH THESE STORMS, BUT SOME STARTS ARE STILL POSSIBLE
ON THE EDGES OF THE STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THERE COULD BE
A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY, BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO
NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. WARMER AND DRIER
WEATHER ALONG IS EXPECTED TO RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MKK
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 9 PM PDT
THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT TUESDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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