264
FXUS66 KEKA 160711
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1211 AM PDT WED SEP 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A WEAK FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVING WEDNESDAY WILL LIKELY LEAD TO
COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A FEW SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS.
* THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS IN MAINLY IN TRINITY,
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY.
* WARMER TEMPERATURES AND DRY CONDITIONS RETURN END OF THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY
THURSDAY. WARMER AND DRIER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AND INTO
THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING SOUTH OVER THE AREA IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THIS IS EXPECTED
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THE MODELS HAVE COME INTO BETTER
AGREEMENT ON THE LOCATION OF THIS LOW AND THE INSTABILITY.
THE HIRES MODELS ARE SHOWING A NUMBER OF SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH THE
AREA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THESE MAY CONTINUE OVERNIGHT, ALTHOUGH
CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON WHETHER THERE WILL BE ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS OVERNIGHT. THE GFS DOES KEEP 100 TO 150 J/KG OF MU
CAPE OVER NORTHERN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES THROUGH MUCH OF
THURSDAY NIGHT. THESE STORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY
DRY, BUT THERE CERTAINLY MAY BE STRIKES THAT OCCUR ON THE EDGE OF
THE RAINFALL CORES.
THURSDAY EVENING THE LOW IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT OF THE AREA,
ALTHOUGH THIS MAY BE SLOWER THAN CURRENTLY EXPECTED. STILL ANY
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD END BY SUNDOWN ON THURSDAY.
FRIDAY AND INTO THE WEEKEND HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT AND THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE
FAIRLY PERSISTENT. MKK
AVIATION
WITH VARIABLE WIND PATTERNS AND LOCALIZED FORMATION OF
STRATUS, THE TERMINALS WILL DIFFER OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
KCEC WILL STAY CLEAR LONGER THAN KACV TONIGHT BUT EXPECT STRATUS TO
FILL IN BY 12Z WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1000FT AND POSSIBLY BELOW 500FT A
FEW HOURS BEFORE DAWN, AROUND 15Z. NORTHERLIES ARE LIKELY TO RAMP UP
BY 20Z AT KCEC WEDNESDAY. KACV WILL LIKELY HAVE SOUTHERLY WINDS
LINGERING BY 12-13Z WITH IFR CONDITIONS, CEILINGS AROUND
700-800FT. NORTHWEST AND WESTERLY WINDS PREVAIL BY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AT KACV WITH A RETURN OF LIFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES IN OVERHEAD AND WEAKENS
THE INVERSION WHICH MAY ALSO BRING A FEW THUNDERSTORMS TO INTERIOR
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES AS WELL AS TRINITY COUNTY.
MARINE
THE NORTHERLY WINDS PERSIST ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS AND
NEAR THE CAPES. A LOCAL AREA OF SOUTHERLY WINDS HAS DEVELOPED JUST
CLOSE TO THE COAST NEAR CRESCENT CITY. IT IS UNCERTAIN ON WHEN THIS
WILL EXPAND, BUT IT IS LIKELY TO EXPAND BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
NORTHERLIES ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE AFTERNOON ON
WEDNESDAY AS SOUTHERLY WINDS SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA. THESE LIGHT
SOUTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST ON THURSDAY. LOCALLY
STRONGER WINDS ARE EXPECTED NEAR CRESCENT CITY, ESPECIALLY IN THE
EVENING. FRIDAY THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME NORTHERLY AGAIN AND
INCREASE OVER THE WEEKEND. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
THIS AFTERNOON AN UPPER LOW ENTERING OVER DEL
NORTE, HUMBOLDT, AND N. TRINITY COUNTIES HAS THE POTENTIAL TO
CAUSE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS. THERE IS STILL A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY ON
THE DETAILS OF THESE STORMS, YET THE MOST LIKELY SCENARIO SEEMS TO
BE STORMS FORMING OVER THE SALMON, KLAMATH, AND TRINITY ALPS
BEFORE FLOWING TOWARDS THE COAST. CONFIDENCE IS SLOWLY INCREASING
THAT THERE MAY BE SOME STORMS WITH THE MODELS BECOMING
INCREASINGLY CONFIDENT IF THE TRACK UP THE UPPER LEVEL LOW. THERE
WILL LIKELY BE RAIN WITH EACH OF THESE STORMS, YET SOME LIGHTNING
THAT STROKES AWAY FROM THE CORE OF THE STORM COULD START A FIRE.
IT IS POSSIBLE THAT THE THERE COULD BE A FEW STORMS ON THURSDAY,
BUT THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED TO NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY
AND SISKIYOU COUNTY. WARMER AND DRIER WEATHER ALONG IS EXPECTED TO
RETURN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MKK/DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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