536
FXUS66 KEKA 012136
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
236 PM PDT THU OCT 1 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, PEAKING AROUND SATURDAY. SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERATE
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* SHALLOW, DIURNAL MARINE LAYER PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* NEARLY 0% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR. MORNING FOG
WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH QUICK CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. FOR THE
INTERIOR, THIS WILL MEAN HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK TERRAIN
WINDS. SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY WITH SOME
INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO APPROACH 100. SUCH TEMPERATURES ARE
UNUSUAL FOR OCTOBER. AT KUKI, FOR EXAMPLE, NBM HAS A 60% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES HITTING 101, WHICH WOULD TIES THE ALL TIME HIGH
FOR THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS, MODERATE HEATRISK WILL COVER MOST OF
THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED HIGH HEAT RISK IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO
AND LAKE COUNTIES. THERE IS A HIGHLY LIKELIHOOD (>70%) OF TEMPS
>95F SATURDAY FOR MOST OF THE MORE POPULATED INTERIOR VALLEYS.
LONGER AND COOLER NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY PREVENT HEAT RISK FROM
CLIMBER HIGHER. CLOSER TO SHORE, A STRONGER MARINE INVERSION WILL
PROMOTE A SHALLOW BUT RESILIENT MARINE LAYER AIDED BY WEAK ONSHORE
FLOW.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL MID WEEK. MOST MODELS SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF LOW
IMPACTING THE AREA. AT MOST, THIS LOW WILL LIFT THE MARINE LAYER AND
PROMOTE SOME DRIZZLE, WHICH COULD ACCUMULATE A HUNDREDTH OR SO OF
PRECIPITATION. JUST A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (5%) INDICATE IT MAY
PRODUCE VERY WEAK INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MONDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHER THAN WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER
ON THE HORIZON. THERE REMAINS A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONG RANGE FORECAST
SUGGEST THIS DRY PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT
LEAST THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. /JHW
AVIATION
COASTAL STRATUS WITH LIFR CONDITIONS HAS BEGUN TO
ERODE LEADING TO VFR. EDDIES CONTINUE LEADING TO MAINLY WESTERLY
AND SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TERMINALS ON THE NORT COAST HOWEVER WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT(<10KT). OVERCAST AND LIFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE TONIGHT, YET OFFSHORE WINDS COULD PUSH THE MARINE LAYER
OFF THE COAST ENOUGH TO KEEP VFR THROUGH THE BULK OF THE EVENING
UNTIL AROUND 11Z (+/- 1HR). INLAND TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO HAVE
GUSTY, UPVALLEY WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH VFR THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD.
MARINE
WINDS WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN WITH MORE MODERATE TO
STRONG WIND GUSTS DURING THE DAY ON THURSDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN
REMARKABLY CALMER CLOSER TO SHORE. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER 10
FEET WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH SOME STEEPER SEAS
AROUND 7 FEET AT 9 SECONDS PUSHING INTO THE INNER WATERS. BEYOND
SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A VERY MINOR SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AUGMENTING THE
SEA STATE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE
PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. OUTER WATER GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY DROP
BELOW 21 KTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS ALSO DROPPING BELOW 5
FEET. THESE MORE SUBDUED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
OCTOBER WILL AID IN ERC VALUES CRESTING BACK NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, VERY WEAK TERRAIN WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY LONG NIGHTS WILL PREVENT BURNING INDEX VALUES FROM
REACHING ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE. THESE VALUES IMPLY FIRE MAY BE
UNUSUALLY EASY TO IGNITE BUT SPREAD POTENTIAL IS ONLY MODERATE.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WEATHER INDUCED IGNITIONS WITH ONLY A VERY
MINIMAL (<5%) CHANCE OF WEAK AND ISOLATED INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEKEND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM PDT FRIDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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