388
FXUS66 KEKA 020702
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1202 AM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL BUILD THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK, PEAKING AROUND SATURDAY. SUCH TEMPERATURES WILL GENERATE
MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR.
* SHALLOW, DIURNAL MARINE LAYER PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* NEARLY 0% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE WEEKEND WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR. MORNING FOG
WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH QUICK CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE STARTED TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA THURSDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS ALREADY JUMPED INTO THE MID AND
UPPER 90S. IN THE COMING DAYS, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK
TERRAIN WINDS WILL PERSIST. SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST
DAY WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH 100. SUCH
TEMPERATURES ARE UNUSUAL FOR OCTOBER. AT KUKI, FOR EXAMPLE, NBM HAS
A 50% CHANCE OF TEMPERATURES HITTING 101, WHICH WOULD TIE THE ALL
TIME HIGH FOR THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS, MODERATE HEATRISK WILL COVER
MOST OF THE INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED HIGH HEAT RISK IN SOUTHERN
MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. LONGER AND COOLER NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY
PREVENT HEAT RISK FROM CLIMBER HIGHER. CLOSER TO SHORE, A STRONGER
MARINE INVERSION WILL PROMOTE A SHALLOW BUT RESILIENT MARINE LAYER
AIDED BY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK, THOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL MOST
LIKELY LINGER UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF
LOW IMPACTING THE AREA. AT MOST, THIS LOW WILL LIFT THE MARINE LAYER
AND PROMOTE SOME DRIZZLE. JUST A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS (5%) INDICATE
IT MAY PRODUCE VERY WEAK INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS AROUND MONDAY
AFTERNOON. OTHER THAN WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS NO IMPACTFUL
WEATHER ON THE HORIZON. THERE REMAINS A NEAR ZERO CHANCE OF WETTING
PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONG RANGE FORECAST
SUGGEST THIS DRY PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST
THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. /JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
DRIER AIR PUSHING INTO THE AREA HAS ALLOWED
FOR MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THURSDAY EVENING DESPITE A STRENGTHENING
MARINE INVERSION. THAT SAID, SOME ISOLATED FOG HAS STARTED TO FORM
AROUND HUMBOLDT BAY THIS EVENING. THERE IS A 50% CHANCE OF LIFR
CONDITIONS ALONG THE NORTH COAST BY SUNRISE. MOST MODELS INDICATE A
STRONGER CHANCE OF FOG FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH LIFR
CONDITIONS INCREASING ALONG THE COAST.
MARINE
NORTHERLY WINDS HAVE GENERALLY WEAKENED, THOUGH MODERATE
TO STRONG WINDS REMAIN IN THE FAR OUTER WATERS. SUCH WINDS WILL
REMAIN THROUGH THE DAY FRIDAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN REMARKABLY CALMER
CLOSER TO SHORE. STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS OVER 10 FEET WILL REMAIN
IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH SOME STEEPER SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT 9
SECONDS PUSHING INTO THE INNER WATERS. BEYOND SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A
VERY MINOR SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AUGMENTING THE SEA STATE. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF
THE AREA. OUTER WATER GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY DROP BELOW 21 KTS BY
SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS ALSO DROPPING BELOW 5 FEET. THESE
MORE SUBDUED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
/JHW
FIRE WEATHER
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
OCTOBER WILL AID IN ERC VALUES CRESTING BACK NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, VERY WEAK TERRAIN WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY LONG NIGHTS WILL PREVENT BURNING INDEX VALUES FROM
REACHING ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE. THESE VALUES IMPLY FIRE MAY BE
UNUSUALLY EASY TO IGNITE BUT SPREAD POTENTIAL IS ONLY MODERATE.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WEATHER INDUCED IGNITIONS WITH ONLY A VERY
MINIMAL (<5%) CHANCE OF WEAK AND ISOLATED INTERIOR THUNDERSTORMS LATE
THIS WEEKEND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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