382
FXUS66 KEKA 022041
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
141 PM PDT FRI OCT 2 2026
KEY MESSAGES...
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK SATURDAY. SUCH
TEMPERATURES WILL GENERATE MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR
THROUGH MID NEXT WEEK.
* SHALLOW, DIURNAL MARINE LAYER PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* NEARLY 0% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
HIGH PRESSURE PEAKING THIS WEEKEND WILL BRING
UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS TO THE INTERIOR. MORNING FOG
WILL BE MOST LIKELY ALONG THE COAST WITH CLEARING INTO THE
AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT.
DISCUSSION
UNUSUALLY STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA FRIDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS HAVE JUMPED INTO THE MID AND UPPER
90S. IN THE COMING DAYS, HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WITH WEAK TERRAIN
WINDS WILL PERSIST. SATURDAY WILL MOST LIKELY BE THE HOTTEST DAY
WITH SOME INTERIOR LOCATIONS LIKELY TO REACH 100. SUCH TEMPERATURES
ARE UNUSUAL FOR OCTOBER. AT KUKI, FOR EXAMPLE, NBM HAS A 50% CHANCE
OF TEMPERATURES HITTING 101, WHICH WOULD TIE THE ALL TIME HIGH FOR
THE DAY. ALONG WITH THIS, MODERATE HEATRISK WILL COVER MOST OF THE
INTERIOR WITH ISOLATED HIGH HEAT RISK IN SOUTHERN MENDOCINO AND LAKE
COUNTIES. HIGH TEMPERATURES ALONGSIDE WARM LOWS OVERNIGHT HAVE
JUSTIFIED A LOCALIZED HEAT ADVISORY FOR SATURDAY. LONGER AND COOLER
NIGHTS WILL GENERALLY PREVENT HEAT RISK FROM CLIMBER HIGHER FURTHER
NORTH. CLOSER TO SHORE, A STRONGER MARINE INVERSION WILL PROMOTE A
SHALLOW BUT RESILIENT MARINE LAYER AIDED BY WEAK ONSHORE FLOW.
LOOKING FURTHER AHEAD, HIGH PRESSURE WILL VERY SLOWLY WEAKEN NEXT
WEEK, THOUGH ABOVE AVERAGE INTERIOR TEMPERATURES WILL MOST LIKELY
LINGER UNTIL AROUND WEDNESDAY. MOST MODELS SHOW A WEAK CUTOFF LOW
IMPACTING THE AREA AROUND MONDAY. AT MOST, THIS LOW WILL LIFT THE
MARINE LAYER AND PROMOTE SOME DRIZZLE. THERE IS MIXED CONFIDENCE,
BUT ABOUT 50% OF MODELS SHOW ANOTHER PEAK OF HIGHS NEAR 100 ON
TUESDAY BEHIND THE LOW. OTHER THAN WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE, THERE IS
NO IMPACTFUL WEATHER ON THE HORIZON. THERE REMAINS A NEAR ZERO
CHANCE OF WETTING PRECIPITATION FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 10 DAYS. LONG
RANGE FORECAST SUGGEST THIS DRY PATTERN IS MOST LIKELY TO PERSIST
THROUGH AT LEAST THE SECOND WEEK OF OCTOBER. /JHW
AVIATION...00Z TAF
LIFR FOG AND MARINE STRATUS HAS SLOWLY PULLED
OFFSHORE TODAY, ALLOWING FOR VFR CONDITIONS ALONG SHORE THIS
AFTERNOON DESPITE FOG HANGING JUST OFFSHORE. MOST MODELS (75%) SHOW
DENSE FOG QUICKLY REBOUNDING THIS EVENING WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
RETURNING BY AROUND 8PM. SIMILAR SLOW CLEARING IS MOST LIKELY
SATURDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS PERSIST ACROSS THE
INTERIOR.
&
MARINE
MODERATE TO STRONG WINDS WIND HAVE PERSISTED IN THE OUTER
WATERS WITH MUCH CALMER WINDS CLOSER TO SHORE. STEEP SHORT PERIOD
SEAS OVER 10 FEET WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS WITH SOME STEEPER
SEAS AROUND 7 FEET AT 9 SECONDS BLEEDING INTO THE INNER WATERS.
BEYOND SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A VERY MINOR SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AUGMENTING
THE SEA STATE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS HIGH
PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA. OUTER WATER GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY
DROP BELOW 21 KTS BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON WITH SEAS ALSO DROPPING
BELOW 5 FEET. THESE MORE SUBDUED CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY PERSIST INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
HOTTER AND DRIER WEATHER BUILDING THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER. NEAR RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES FOR
OCTOBER WILL AID IN ERC VALUES CRESTING BACK NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, VERY WEAK TERRAIN WINDS AND
INCREASINGLY LONG NIGHTS WILL PREVENT BURNING INDEX VALUES FROM
REACHING ABOVE THE 70TH PERCENTILE. THESE VALUES IMPLY FIRE MAY BE
UNUSUALLY EASY TO IGNITE BUT SPREAD POTENTIAL IS ONLY MODERATE.
THERE IS LITTLE CHANCE OF WEATHER INDUCED IGNITIONS. ENHANCED
CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 11 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR CAZ112-
113-118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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