805
FXUS66 KEKA 040714
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1214 AM PDT SUN OCT 4 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MID NEXT
WEEK.
* SHALLOW, DIURNAL MARINE LAYER PERSISTING ALONG THE COAST THROUGH
THE WEEKEND.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WORK WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AND INTO
OUR AREA THIS WEEKEND WILL CREATE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR AND CONTINUED OVERCAST SKIES ALONG THE
NORTH COAST. THE WEATHER PATTERN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH MOST OF
THE COMING WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A CONSISTENT SYNOPTIC PATTERN REMAINS OVERHEAD FORCING
RELATIVELY RINSE AND REPEAT WEATHER FOR MOST OF NW CALIFORNIA.
INTERIOR AREAS REMAIN VERY HOT, WITH CLOSE TO RECORD BREAKING
TEMPERATURES AND DRY. THERMAL BELTS REMAIN AT MIDSLOPE KEEPING AREAS
ABOVE WARM OVERNIGHT. LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND MINIMAL FORCING. COASTAL AREAS OF DEL NORTE
AND N. HUMBOLDT CAN EXPECTED CONTINUED OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH
AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE. THE MENDOCINO COAST IS LIKELY
TO REMAIN MORE CLEAR WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES IN THE MID 60S OR SO.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE ONLY SIGN OF RELIEF
SEEMS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A EVEN A CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME, YET ANY DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS MOMENT.
WHILE IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS IS THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST,
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS. DS
AVIATION...06Z UPDATE
LIFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE FOR ACV AND
CEC THROUGH DAWN. A FOG BANK WITH VARIABLE VISIBILITIES CONTINUES TO
EBB AND FLOW OVER THE TERMINALS. PERIODS OF DENSE FOG WITH 1/4SM FG
WILL OSCILLATE IN BETWEEN SHORT PERIODS OF VISIBILITIES UP TO 1
1/2SM THROUGH THE EVENING BEFORE DENSE FOG SETS IN AROUND 06Z. WINDS
WILL REMAIN LIGHT (<10KT) BOTH ALONG THE COAST AND INLAND. COASTAL
WINDS WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND SOUTHERLY AS A COASTAL EDDY HAS SET UP.
INLAND AREAS CAN EXPECT VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. DS
MARINE
A CONSISTENT LAND-SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE SETTING
UP EACH AFTERNOON WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE NORTHERLY WINDS THROUGH THE
OUTER WATERS AS A CONSISTENT SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT REMAINS.
MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL FORCE STEEP,
SHORT PERIOD WAVES TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING. A SMALL CRAFT
ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE OUTER WATERS, POSSIBLY EASING
BELOW CRITERIA BY THE MORNING BEFORE LIKELY RETURNING EARLY WEEK AS
WINDS INCREASE AGAIN. BEYOND SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A VERY MINOR
SOUTHWEST SWELL IS ADDING SOME COMPLEXITY TO THE SEA STATE.
NORTHERLIES ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK.
DS
FIRE WEATHER
THE WEATHER PATTERN CONTINUES WITH UNSEASONABLY HOT
AND DRY CONDITIONS INCREASING FIRE DANGER. INTERIOR VALLEY HIGHS IN
THE UPPER 90S AND DAYTIME RH AROUND 15 PERCENT WILL CONTINUE INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. MID AND UPPER ELEVATION RH RECOVERY WILL BECOME
INCREASINGLY POOR WITH STRENGTHENING THERMAL BELTS ABOVE MIDSLOPE
AND LIGHT OFFSHORE WINDS. DAYTIME WINDS REMAIN WEAK AND TERRAIN
DRIVEN WITH MORNING UPSLOPE FLOW TURNING TO UPVALLEY GUSTS IN THE
AFTERNOON. MARINE INFLUENCE WILL BE VERY SHALLOW ALONG THE COAST,
BELOW 500FT. CONDITIONS WILL SLOWLY EASE MID NEXT WEEK THOUGH THERE
REMAINS ESSENTIALLY 0% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN WITHIN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. SOME SLIGHT RELIEF IS POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND WITH SOME GLOBAL
MODELS STARTING TO HINT AT SOME SORT OF WEAK COLD FRONT PASSING
THROUGH NEXT SUNDAY.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR CAZ112-113-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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