286
FXUS66 KEKA 052144
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
244 PM PDT MON OCT 5 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE TO
GENERATE MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH MID WEEK.
* A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING CHANCES OF MORNING COASTAL FOG
FOR MUCH OF THE WEEK.
* DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS COMING WORK WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA THIS WEEK AND WILL CREATE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND IS BRINGING HOT WEATHER TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. THICKER
THAN ANTICIPATED CLOUD COVER ON SUNDAY KEPT TEMPERATURES FROM
WARMING QUITE AS MUCH, BUT THIS CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OUT
OF THE AREA TODAY BRINGING A MOSTLY CLEAR TODAY OUTSIDE OF THE
COASTAL AREAS. NEAR-RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST
INTERIOR AREAS SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S TO JUST OVER 100. HIGH
ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE THE THERMAL BELT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM
(MID 60S AND 70S) THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH VALLEY LOWS IN THE 50S TO
THE LOW 60S. LIGHT TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STABLE
ATMOSPHERE AND MINIMAL FORCING. COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED
OVERCAST CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNINGS. STRATUS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO MOST OF THE COMING WEEK AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE. THE ONLY SIGN OF RELIEF
SEEMS TO BE NEXT WEEKEND. THE GFS AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH DIPPING INTO THE AREA SOMETIME LATE SATURDAY INTO
MONDAY MORNING. THERE IS A SMALL CHANCE OF RAIN RETURNING TO THE
AREA DURING THIS TIME, YET ANY DETAILS ARE NOT CLEAR AT THIS MOMENT.
WHILE IT IS IMPORTANT TO REMEMBER THIS IS THE FAR EXTENDED FORECAST,
THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS.
AVIATION
AN ATTEMPT AT OPTIMISTIC TAF GROUPS HAS PROVEN TO BE
MOST FUTILE WITH THE OFFSHORE CIRCULATION BRINGING STRATUS BACK
INTO KCEC. WHAT LOOKED LIKE SCATTERING OUT HAS FILLED BACK IN AS
OF 21Z FOR BOTH COASTAL TERMINALS WITH LIFR CEILINGS AROUND 300FT
AND VISIBILITY PEAKING ABOVE 3SM AND RETURNING TO 1SM OR BELOW.
FURTHER INVESTIGATION OF THE VERTICAL PROFILE SHOWS A VERY
PERSISTENT AND STOUT LOW LEVEL INVERSION, KEEPING WARMER AIR ALOFT
AND THE COOLER DENSER STRATUS VERY CLOSE TO THE DECK. PROBABILITY
OF IMPROVED VISIBILITY UP TO 5SM IS AROUND 48% FOR KCEC AND KACV.
TEMPO GROUPS WILL BE USED TO BUFFER BETWEEN HOPE AND THE GROUND
TRUTH. VFR AT KUKI CAN BE CONFIDENTLY STATED AS SUBSTANTIAL
CLEARING CONTINUES. /EYS
MARINE
NORTH WINDS BUILD AGAIN THIS EVENING BRINGING WIDESPREAD
SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS FOR THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS STEEPEN
IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS BRINGING COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS, EVEN IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE WINDS REMAIN
MUCH LIGHTER. SEAS REMAIN DOMINATED BY THESE WIND WAVES THROUGH THE
WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID PERIOD SWELLS IN
ADDITION TO THE WIND WAVES. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY, ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AS HIGH PRESSURE
STRENGTHENS FURTHER. STRONGER NORTHERLIES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE
WEEKEND.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ110>114-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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