396
FXUS66 KEKA 060854
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
154 AM PDT TUE OCT 6 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* UNSEASONABLY HOT TEMPERATURES WITH NEAR RECORD HIGHS CONTINUE TO
BRING MODERATE HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
* A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER WILL BRING CHANCES OF COASTAL DENSE FOG
THIS WEEK.
* DRY WEATHER LIKELY TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE FOUR CORNERS CONTINUES
TO INFLUENCE OUR AREA THIS WEEK AND WILL CREATE UNSEASONABLY HOT AND
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE INTERIOR. CHANCES FOR DENSE FOG ALONG THE
COAST CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE HAS BUILT OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AND IS BRINGING HOT WEATHER TO THE INTERIOR AREAS. NEAR-
RECORD HIGH TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED WITH MOST INTERIOR AREAS
SEEING HIGHS IN THE 90S TO JUST OVER 100. HIGH ELEVATION AREAS ABOVE
THE THERMAL BELT ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN WARM (MID 60S AND 70S) THROUGH
THE NIGHT, WHILE VALLEYS SEE LOWS IN THE 50S TO THE LOW 60S. LIGHT
TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO A STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND
MINIMAL FORCING. COASTAL AREAS CAN EXPECT CONTINUED OVERCAST
CONDITIONS WITH AREAS OF DENSE FOG AND LIGHT DRIZZLE IN THE
MORNINGS. STRATUS MAY STRUGGLE TO SCATTER ALONG THE HUMBOLDT COAST
THIS AFTERNOON, BUT PARTIAL CLEARING IS POSSIBLE FOR A FEW HOURS IN
THE AFTERNOON OUTSIDE OF THE IMMEDIATE COASTLINE. SOME MORE CONCRETE
CLEARING MAY OCCUR WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO
STRENGTHEN, BUT THERE IS MUCH MODEL DISAGREEMENT IN THIS AT THIS
TIME.
THIS PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE UPPER
LEVEL RIDGE STAYS FIRMLY IN PLACE. A MUCH COOLER PATTERN ARRIVES
THIS WEEKEND AS A TROUGH DIVES INTO THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND OVER
THE AREA. AS OF NOW, CHANCES FOR ANY RAIN ARE LESS THAN 10% AND, IF
ANYTHING, WOULD MANIFEST IN ENHANCED COASTAL DRIZZLE. THIS INSIDE
SLIDER PATTERN WOULD STILL BRING MUCH COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
THIS WEEKEND 10 TO 20 DEGREES COOLER. LOW TEMPERATURES ALSO HAVE
HIGH CHANCES TO BE THE COLDEST YET OF THE FALL WITH 20 TO 50%
CHANCES FOR FREEZING TEMPERATURES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK
IN THE COLDEST VALLEYS OF TRINITY AND EASTERN MENDOCINO COUNTIES.
ALONG WITH THE COOLER TEMPERATURES, BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS ARE ALSO
BECOMING MORE LIKELY, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE COAST. NBM IS SHOWING 30%
CHANCES FOR GUSTS OVER 40 MPH ON THE HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COASTS
ON SATURDAY, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER PROBABILITIES OVER THE KING RANGE
AND MOUNTAINS OF DEL NORTE. CHANCES FOR GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ARE MUCH
HIGHER AND MORE WIDESPREAD AT 70% ALONG THE COAST AND 20-50% FOR
MUCH OF THE INTERIOR. WHILE WINDS ARE LIKELY TO BE STRONGEST
SATURDAY, BREEZY WINDS ARE LIKELY AGAIN SUNDAY.
AS OF NOW, THE EXTENDED FORECAST REMAINS DRY. LONG RANGE ENSEMBLES
SHOW LITTLE CHANCE FOR ANY PRECIPITATION WITH MUCH OF THE STORM
TRACK MOVING NORTH OF THE AREA. CPC ALSO HAS HIGH CHANCES FOR BELOW
NORMAL PRECIPITATION IN THE 8-14 DAY OUTLOOK.
AVIATION...(6Z TAFS)
A SHALLOW MARINE LAYER HAS CONTINUED TO
BRING LIFR CONDITIONS AND DENSE FOG TO THE COASTAL TERMINALS.
STRATUS WILL LIKELY RETREAT TO THE COAST BY THE EARLY AFTERNOON, BUT
CONSISTENT WESTERLY WINDS ARE LIKELY TO CONTINUE LIFR STRATUS
IMPACTS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON, ALONG WITH VISIBILITY IMPACTS. LIFR
STRATUS IS LIKELY TO RETURN IN THE EVENING, SHOULD IT CLEAR IN THE
AFTERNOON. INTERIOR AREAS ARE LIKELY TO REMAIN VFR FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
MARINE
NORTH WINDS REMAIN ELEVATED IN THE OUTER WATERS
TODAY WITH WIDESPREAD SUSTAINED WINDS OF 15 TO 25 KTS. SEAS STEEPEN
IN RESPONSE TO THESE WINDS BRINGING COMBINED SEAS OF 6 TO 10 FT
ACROSS THE WATERS, INCLUDING IN THE NEARSHORE WATERS WHERE WINDS
REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER. SEAS REMAIN DOMINATED BY THESE WIND WAVES
THROUGH THE WEEK WITH ONLY SMALL SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY MID PERIOD
SWELLS IN ADDITION TO THE WIND WAVES. WINDS BEGIN TO EASE WEDNESDAY,
ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHERN WATERS, AS HIGH PRESSURE STRENGTHENS
FURTHER. STRONGER NORTHERLIES RETURN FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.
WIDESPREAD GALE FORCE GUSTS ARE LIKELY THIS WEEKEND WITH STORM FORCE
GUSTS POSSIBLE IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ101-103.
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ110>114-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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