800
FXUS66 KEKA 070717
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1217 AM PDT WED OCT 7 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF HIGH TEMPERATURES WITH BRING MODERATE
HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR THROUGH THE WEEK.
* A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
* NO WETTING RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
MUCH WARMER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS WILL
PERSIST FOR A COUPLE MORE DAYS WITH SHALLOW MARINE INFLUENCE ALONG
SHORE. MUCH MORE SEASONABLE COOLER AND MOISTER CONDITIONS ARRIVE BY
THE WEEKEND ALONGSIDE STRONG NORTH WINDS NEAR SHORE. CHANCES FOR
WETTING RAIN REMAIN NEAR ZERO.
DISCUSSION
MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL CONDITIONS CONTINUE TO LINGER
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAKENING HIGH PRESSURE. MANY INTERIOR
VALLEYS AGAIN HIT 100 ON TUESDAY WITH SIMILAR TEMPERATURES AGAIN
MOST LIKELY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. SUCH CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO
SUPPORT MODERATE TO ISOLATED MAJOR HEATRISK ACROSS THE INTERIOR BUT
ESPECIALLY MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES. MEANWHILE, AN ESPECIALLY
SHALLOW BUT STRONG MARINE LAYER WILL REMAIN ALONG SHORE WITH LOW
MARINE FOG AND CLOUDS AND SCATTERING OUT IN THE AFTERNOON.
BY FRIDAY, WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVING OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC WILL
WEAKEN HEAT AND BRING GENERALLY MUCH MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS. ON
FRIDAY, HIGHS WILL DROP BACK INTO THE LOWER 90S WITH A DEEPER MARINE
LAYER ALONG SHORE. A BROAD TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT
WILL FURTHER COOL CONDITIONS BY SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO THE 70. DESPITE THE FRONT,
ESSENTIALLY NO MODELS SHOW ANY MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH. VERY
LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE WILL BE THE ONLY PRECIPITATION POTENTIAL AS
THE MARINE LAYER GETS LIFTED.
AS THE TROUGH DIPS SOUTH, THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY (EFI VALUES OF 0.75) STRONG NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS COULD BE PARTICULARLY ENHANCED BY LOW
PRESSURE DETACHING FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVING SOUTH, THOUGH THIS
SCENARIO IS UNCERTAIN. NBM SHOWS MOST LIKELY WIND GUSTS ALONG SHORE
OF 35 MPH ON SUNDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD BE ON COASTAL RIDGES
AND HEADLANDS. THERE IS A 60% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH OVER THE
KING RANGE AND IN THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THAT CHANCE IS ONLY 10
TO 20% FOR MORE POPULATED AREAS LIKE CRESCENT CITY AND HUMBOLDT BAY.
WINDS WILL MOST LIKELY KEEP MARINE AIR SCATTERED OUT ALONG THE
COAST, ESPECIALLY AS WINDS TURNS SLIGHTLY EASTERLY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
10-14 DAYS), THOUGH MUCH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. /JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
A VERY SHALLOW MARINE LAYER IS AGAIN IMPACTING
THE COAST, BRINGING A THIN BAND OF LIFR FOG AND CEILINGS TO NEAR
COASTAL TERMINALS. LIFR CONDITIONS WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST
OVERNIGHT BEFORE SLOWLY PULLING BACK BY LATE MORNING WEDNESDAY. THE
PATTERN WILL MOST LIKELY PERSIST ONE MORE DAY WITH LIFR CONDITIONS
RESURGING WEDNESDAY EVENING, THOUGH CEILINGS ARE SLIGHTLY STARTED TO
LIFT WITH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE. VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
THE INTERIOR. /JHW
MARINE
AS HIGH PRESSURE STALLS AND WEAKENS WEDNESDAY, MODERATE
WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS WILL GENERALLY BECOME GENTLE WEDNESDAY.
THAT SAID, STRONGER WINDS JUST OUTSIDE THE WATERS WILL CONTINUE TO
GENERATE SOME STEEP MID PERIOD SEAS UP TO 9 FEET. THESE SEAS WILL
MOSTLY EFFECT THE OUTER WATERS WITH MUCH CALMER CONDITIONS CLOSE TO
SHORE. THERE CONTINUES TO BE BE VERY MINOR, SOUTHERLY LONGER PERIOD
SWELLS FROM DISTANT TROPICAL STORMS.
NORTH WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE FRIDAY AND PUSH CLOSER TO SHORE AS
LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST OF THE AREAS. GUSTS WILL MOST LIKELY BE
NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WITH A 40% CHANCE OF PROPER GALES SOUTH OF CAPE
MENDOCINO BY FRIDAY EVENING. OF COURSE, STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL
RISE IN RESPONSE. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN SATURDAY AS BROAD
TROUGH DIPS NORTH OF THE AREA. BY SATURDAY, THERE AS 80% CHANCE OF
GUSTS OVER 40 KTS IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS WITH GALE CONDITIONS
IN THE INNER WATERS. VERY WINDY CONDITIONS WILL THEN PERSIST UNTIL
AT LEAST NEXT MONDAY. AROUND SUNDAY A LONG PERIOD SWELL AROUND 5
FEET AT 22 SECONDS WILL AUGMENT THE SEA STATE. IF SHORT PERIOD SEAS
WERE NOT SO STEEP, SUCH A SWELL WOULD CREATE A SIGNIFICANT SNEAKER
WAVE RISK. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
PROLONGED MUCH HOTTER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS HAVE HAD A SIGNIFICANT AFFECT ON OBSERVED FIRE DANGER. ERC
VALUES ARE CURRENTLY ABOVE THE 80TH PERCENTILE ACROSS INTERIOR NW
CALIFORNIA. WITH A COUPLE MORE DAYS OF WARMING AND DRYING AND DUE TO
THE LAGGING NATURE OF HEAVIER FUELS, ERC VALUES WILL CREST NEAR THE
90TH PERCENTILE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUCH VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY
BE RECORD BREAKING FOR OCTOBER. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BUILD NEAR SHORE AND ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES.
ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY, CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COOL
AND MOIST (HIGHS IN 70S AND RH AROUND 30 PERCENT), THE LACK OF ANY
RAIN CHANCES AND RECENT DRYING WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD
BREAKING BURNING INDEX VALUES FOR OCTOBER AROUND SATURDAY. ALL THAT
SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FIRE ACTIVITY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
HEAT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR CAZ110>114-
118>120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ470-
475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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