202
FXUS66 KEKA 092146
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
246 PM PDT FRI OCT 9 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A DEVELOPING TROUGH WILL BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS BY FRIDAY
AND THE WEEKEND.
* STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WIND CLOSE TO SHORE AND ALONG RIDGES THIS
WEEKEND.
* NO WETTING RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE
WEEKEND. DRAMATICALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARRIVE SATURDAY, WITH
CHANCES FOR FROST OR SUB FREEZING TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR
THROUGH LATE NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OF AT LEAST 0.1
INCH REMAIN NEAR 0.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE IS FINALLY BEGINNING TO BREAK DOWN ACROSS
THE AREA, SPELLING THE END OF 6 DAYS STRAIGHT OF MUCH ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND SHALLOW MARINE FOG ALONG SHORE. A BROAD TROUGH
AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FURTHER COOL CONDITIONS BY
SATURDAY AND INTO SUNDAY. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BACK INTO
THE 70S. DESPITE THE FRONT, FEW MODELS SHOW ANY MOISTURE WITH
FRONT. SOME VERY LIGHT COASTAL DRIZZLE IS POSSIBLE AS THE MARINE
LAYER LIFTS, BUT CHANCES OF WETTING RAIN ARE BELOW 10%. SOME HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS SHOW SHOWERS FORMING ALONG THE SACRAMENTO VALLEY
AROUND SUNDAY, AN OFFSHOOT OF MUCH BROADER CONVECTION IN SOUTHERN
CALIFORNIA. THAT SAID, GENERAL LACKING PRECIPITABLE WATERS AND
LITTLE TO NO INSTABILITY MAKE VIRGA AND WEAK RADAR RETURNS THE
MOST LIKELY OUTCOME.
AS THE TROUGH DIPS SOUTH, THERE IS STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT THAT THERE
IS POTENTIAL FOR UNUSUALLY (EFI VALUES OF 0.85) STRONG NORTH WINDS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WINDS MAY BE PARTICULARLY ENHANCED BY LOW
PRESSURE DETACHING FROM THE TROUGH AND MOVING SOUTH, THOUGH ACTUALLY
INSTABILITY WITH THIS LOW IS TENUOUS AT BEST. NBM SHOWS MOST LIKELY
WIND GUSTS ALONG SHORE OF 35 MPH ON SATURDAY. THE STRONGEST WINDS
WOULD BE ON COASTAL RIDGES AND HEADLANDS DURING THE DAY SATURDAY.
THERE IS A 80% CHANCE OF GUSTS OVER 45 MPH OVER THE KING RANGE AND
IN THE COASTAL WATERS, THOUGH THAT CHANCE IS ONLY 10 TO 20% FOR MORE
POPULATED AREAS LIKE CRESCENT CITY AND HUMBOLDT BAY. WINDS WILL MOST
LIKELY KEEP MARINE AIR SCATTERED OUT ALONG THE COAST, ESPECIALLY AS
WINDS TURNS SLIGHTLY EASTERLY BY SUNDAY MORNING AND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.
AS WINDS WEAKEN, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING BY MONDAY (20% CHANCE FOR EASTERN INTERIOR
VALLEYS). EVEN THE COAST HAS GOOD CHANCES OF LOWS INT HE LOW 40S,
THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR. ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT 10-14 DAYS), THOUGH MUCH WEAKER HIGH
PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
/JHW
AVIATION
THE LINGERING SHALLOW STRATUS SCATTERED OUT FRIDAY
WITH THE APPROACH OF A TROUGH AND FRONT. THE FRONT WILL DISRUPT
THE MARINE LAYER, DECREASING THE CHANCES FOR LIFR DEVELOPING
FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR TO MVFR IS MORE LIKELY AT THIS POINT EARLIER IN
THE NIGHT. THE FRONT MAY ACTUALLY EFFECTIVELY SCATTER OUT THE
STRATUS GOING INTO SATURDAY MORNING WITH INCREASING NORTHERLY
FLOW.
INLAND AREAS CAN EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WILL GUSTY AFTERNOON
WESTERLY TO NORTHERLY WINDS. WINDS COULD BE ERRATIC NEAR TERRAIN
AS WELL, POSSIBLY CAUSING LOW LEVEL TURBULENCE NEAR TERMINALS. THE
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE PASSING FRONT COULD DRIVE
STRATUS EASTWARD OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO UKI, POTENTIALLY
BRINGING A CEILING BELOW 1700 FT AGL. CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THIS
TIME. DS/JJW
MARINE
STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS AND GALE CONDITIONS ARE
ONGOING OVER THE WATERS. THESE WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN THROUGH
SATURDAY, WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. NEAR STORM FORCE GUSTS WILL
DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS SEAS OF 12
TO 15 FT ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. IN ADDITION TO VERY STEEP
SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A MODERATE, VERY LONG PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL
WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AROUND SUNDAY WHILE GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN
IN THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE LONG PERIOD SWELL
VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS.
FIRE WEATHER
PROLONGED MUCH HOTTER AND DRIER THAN NORMAL
CONDITIONS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO EASE TODAY. HOWEVER DUE TO THE
LAGGING NATURE OF HEAVIER FUELS, ERC VALUES WILL CREST NEAR THE 90TH
PERCENTILE ON FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. SUCH VALUES WILL MOST LIKELY BE
RECORD BREAKING FOR OCTOBER. AT THE SAME TIME, STRONG NORTH WINDS
GUSTING 30 TO 40 MPH WILL BUILD NEAR SHORE AND ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES
SATURDAY. PASSING LOW PRESSURE MAY AID IN MORE MODERATE WINDS MIXING
INTO USUALLY PROTECTED VALLEYS SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL TURN
MORE EASTERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY, HELPING TO FURTHER DRY CONDITIONS AND
PRODUCE POOR RH RECOVERY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. ALTHOUGH BY SATURDAY,
CONDITIONS WILL BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COOL AND MOIST (HIGHS IN 70S
AND RH AROUND 30 PERCENT), THE LACK OF ANY RAIN CHANCES AND RECENT
DRYING WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR RECORD BREAKING BURNING INDEX VALUES
FOR OCTOBER AROUND SATURDAY. ALL THAT SAID, THERE IS POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND. /JHW
BEACH HAZARDS
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST-NORTHWESTS SWELL WILL ARRIVE IN
THE NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WATERS SATURDAY EVENING WITH A PERIOD
OVER 25 SECONDS. SWELL WILL THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND 5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS
VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR
SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
AROUND 11AM TO 1PM SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG N CA COAST. A
POSSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY IS YIELING TIDES AROUND 1 FOOT HIGHER
THAN PREDICITONS ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN USUAL TIDES, ADDING TO THE
THREAT.
COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON LUNAR CYCLE IS BRINGING HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF OVER 1 FOOT WILL
YEILD HIGH TIDES THAT WILL NEAR OR REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8.8
FT FOR HUMBOLDT BAY SATURDAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
NORTH SPIT HIGH TIDE ESTIMATES: SATURDAY: 8.5 FT AT 12:03 PM
SUNDAY : 8.8 FT AT 12:32 PM
MONDAY : 8.6 FT AT 1:01 PM
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT PDT TONIGHT FOR PZZ450.
GALE WARNING FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR
PZZ450.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR
PZZ455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT SATURDAY FOR PZZ455.
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR
PZZ470.
GALE WARNING FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ470.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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