557
FXUS66 KEKA 102023
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
123 PM PDT SAT OCT 10 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK.
* STRONG, GUSTY NORTH WINDS EXPECTED CLOSE TO SHORE, ALONG RIDGES,
AND IN CHANNEL TERRAIN THIS WEEKEND.
* NO WETTING RAIN FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE STRONG NORTH
WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. DRAMATICALLY COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE
ALSO EXPECTED, WITH CHANCES FOR FROST OR SUB FREEZING
TEMPERATURES FOR THE INTERIOR INTO NEXT WEEK. CHANCES FOR WETTING
RAIN REMAIN NEAR 0% THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST.
DISCUSSION
THIS WEEKEND WEATHER WILL BE DOMINATED BY THE IMPACTS
OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENTERING THE PACNW. WHILE THE CENTER OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FARTHER NORTH, OVER WA AND OR,
SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCES WILL FLOW OVER NW CA ENHANCING ATMOSPHERIC
MIXING AND LEADING TO GUSTY CONDITIONS. GUSTY NORTH WINDS WILL BE
STRONG TODAY AND SUNDAY WITH COASTAL AREAS AND RIDGES
EXPERIENCING THE BULK OF THE FLOW. HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
ALSO SHOWING THESE WINDS MIXING DOWN INTO RIVER VALLEYS THAT ARE
EXPOSED TO THE DIRECTION OF FLOW. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE STRONG,
BETWEEN 25-35MPH IN THE AFTERNOON, WHILE STILL REMAINING BELOW
LEVELS NEEDED FOR A WIND ADVISORY. COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ALSO
EXPECTED WITH THIS FEATURE THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK.
BESIDES THE STRONGER WINDS, MORNINGS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CHILLY.
THESE COLDER TEMPERATURES HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO CAUSE SOME LOCALIZED
FROST FOR INLAND VALLEYS. CONFIDENCE IS HIGH ON TEMPERATURES
DROPPING BELOW 35DEGF FOR MUCH OF TRINITY AND NE MENDOCINO. THAT
SAID, FROST COULD BE STOPPED BY CLOUD DEVELOPMENT IN THESE VALLEYS
AS FORECASTED RH VALLEYS ABOVE 95% ARE LIKELY FOR MOST VALLEYS
BESIDES THOSE IN NE TRINITY COUNTY. ANOTHER FEATURE THAT COULD
LIMIT FROST FORMATION IS WINDS LASTING OVERNIGHT. OVER THE NEXT
24HRS, IT WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR ON THIS THREAT AS GROUND
OBSERVATIONS RECORD THE MOISTURE FLUX TO THE AREA.
THIS COMING WORK WEEK, THE TROUGH THAT WILL IMPACT THIS WEEKEND'S
WEATHER WILL MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GREAT BASIN ALLOWING FOR AN
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO REBUILD INTO THE REGION. THIS REBUILDING WILL
SHOW A WARMING TREND BACK TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR INLAND
AREAS, DRY RIDGES, AND OVERCAST SKIES ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
TEMPERATURES IN THE 80S ARE LIKELY BY MIDWEEK AND COULD EVEN BREAK
90DEGF BY THE END OF THE COMING WEEK. DS
AVIATION
A DRY COLD FRONT CONTINUE THROUGH NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
WITH STRONG NORTHERLIES AND COOLER CONDITIONS LEFT IN ITS WAKE.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR MOST TERMINALS OF NORTHWEST
CALIFORNIA THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS FOR COASTAL TERMINALS
COULD GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE
EVENING WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR WINDS TO REMAIN ELEVATED ALONG THE
DEL NORTE COAST OVERNIGHT. FOR INTERIOR TERMINALS, GUSTS ARE
MOSTLY EXPECTED FROM 15 TO 25 KNOTS. THERE COULD BE PATCHY FOG IN
COASTAL AREAS OR SOME INTERIOR VALLEYS WHERE WINDS CALM OVERNIGHT.
MARINE
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE ENHANCED STRONG
TO GALE FORCE WINDS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THESE WINDS WILL
STRENGTHEN THROUGH TODAY, WITH GUSTS TO 40 KTS. NEAR STORM FORCE
GUSTS WILL DEVELOP SOUTH OF CAPE MENDOCINO. STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
SHORT PERIOD SEAS OF 12 TO 15 FT ARE DEVELOPING AS A RESULT. IN
ADDITION TO VERY STEEP SHORT PERIOD SEAS, A MODERATE, VERY LONG
PERIOD WESTERLY SWELL WILL IMPACT THE WATERS AROUND SUNDAY WHILE
GALE CONDITIONS REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS AND AROUND CAPE
MENDOCINO. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY SUBSIDE EARLY NEXT WEEK WHILE THE
LONG PERIOD SWELL VERY SLOWLY WEAKENS.
FIRE WEATHER
CLOSE TO RECORD BREAKING ERCS EXIST FOR THE AREA AT
THIS TIME OF YEAR TODAY. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL ALSO CAUSE AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE LEADING TO STRONG WIND GUSTS FOR RIDGES AND
CHANNELED TERRAIN ALONG THE NNW FLOW. WINDS WILL TURN MORE
EASTERLY BY EARLY SUNDAY, FURTHER DRYING CONDITIONS AND PRODUCING
POOR RH RECOVERY AT HIGH ELEVATIONS. THAT SAID, THIS COLD FRONT
PASSAGE WILL CAUSE CONDITIONS TO BE MUCH MORE SEASONABLY COOL AND
MOIST (HIGHS IN 70S AND RH AROUND 30 PERCENT). HOWEVER, THE LACK
OF ANY RAIN CHANCES AND RECENT DRYING WILL STILL SUPPORT NEAR
RECORD BREAKING BURNING INDEX VALUES FOR OCTOBER AROUND SATURDAY.
ALL OF THESE FACTORS TOGETHER SHOW THAT THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR
MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE FIRE ACTIVITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
BEACH HAZARDS
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON
ARRIVES THIS WEEKEND. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A PERIOD AROUND 20 SECONDS. SWELL WILL
THEN BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
AROUND 5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF
UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY AS A RESULT.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT AROUND
11AM TO 1PM SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG N CA COAST. A POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALY IS YIELDING TIDES AROUND 1-1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN
PREDICTIONS ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN USUAL TIDES, ADDING TO THE
THREAT.
COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON LUNAR CYCLE IS CAUSING HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 1-1.5 FEET WILL
YIELD HIGH TIDES THAT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS
OF 8.8 FT FOR HUMBOLDT BAY TODAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
NORTH SPIT HIGH TIDE ESTIMATES: TODAY: OBSERVED TO PEAK AT 8.57 FT
AT 12:12 P.M.; SUNDAY: 8.8 FT AT 12:32 P.M.; MONDAY: 8.6 FT AT
1:01 P.M.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PDT SUNDAY FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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