590
FXUS66 KEKA 110726
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1226 AM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST SUNDAY WITH GUSTS OVER 30 MPH
ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES AND HEADLANDS IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE.
* CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR WILL ENABLE EXTENSIVE FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS IN TRINITY AND INTERIOR HUMBOLDT MONDAY MORNING.
* MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK BUT NO WETTING RAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, HELPING TO KEEP
EVENT HE COAST CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL CLAM MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROSTY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
A STRONG COLD FRONT HAS PASSED EAST OF THE AREA OVER
THE LAST 24 HOURS. AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH, A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT HAS FORMED
ALONG SHORE. STRONG NORTH WINDS ARE ONGOING CLOSE TO SHORE WITH
GUSTS NEAR 30 MPH. MORE STABLE AIR WILL ALLOW WINDS TO WEAKEN
OVERNIGHT. IN THE CALMEST VALLEYS, SOME ISOLATED FROST IS POSSIBLE
BY EARLY MORNING SUNDAY, BUT WINDS WILL LIMIT ITS EXTENT. FROST IS
MOST LIKELY AROUND HAYFORK AND SOME SECTIONS OF HIGHWAY 36.
WINDS WILL TURN MORE NORTHEAST AND RAPIDLY REFORM DURING THE DAY
SUNDAY. THE HIGHEST EXPOSED RIDGES IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE AND
AREAS ALONG SHORE WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTS AROUND 35 MPH WITH CALMER
WINDS IN SHELTERED TERRAIN. COOL BUT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM
INTO THE AREA WITH HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 70S. WINDS WILL ALSO KEEP
MARINE AIR SCATTERED OUT NEAR SHORE, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY STRATUS
FREE SKIES.
AS WINDS WEAKEN, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING BY MONDAY (60% CHANCE OF A FREEZE FOR
EASTERN INTERIOR VALLEYS). EVEN THE COAST HAS GOOD CHANCES OF LOWS
IN NEAR 40, THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR. CONDITIONS WILL
GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE. A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKEWISE FORM BACK UP WITH SOME
SHALLOW STRATUS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY. ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT
THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT 10-14 DAYS), THOUGH MUCH WEAKER
HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES.
/JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
STRONG NORTH WINDS GUSTS UP TO 30 KTS AT
COASTAL TERMINALS HAVE KEPT MARINE CLOUDS SCATTERED OUT, ALLOWING FOR
VFR CONDITIONS ALL ACROSS THE AREA. WINDS WILL WEAKEN OVERNIGHT BUT
RESURGES TOMORROW AFTERNOON WITH GUSTS AGAIN OVER 30 KTS BY LATE
AFTERNOON. SOME LOW LEVEL WINDSHEAR IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE COAST WITH
NORTHWEST WINDS AT THE SURFACE BUT NORTHEAST WINDS AROUND 1 TO 2
KFT. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST. /JHW
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN ALL WATERS WITH SOME GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 KTS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. NORTH WINDS MAY
BRIEFLY PULL BACK FROM INNER WATERS THIS MORNING BUT EVEN THEN GUSTS
WILL REMAIN STRONG. WINDS WILL RESURGE AND PUSH BACK CLOSE TO SHORE
BY LATE AFTERNOON AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT PERIOD SEAS REMAIN
STEEP AND HAZARDOUS IN EXCESS OF 12 FEET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY PULL
BACK FROM SHORE BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH GENTLE WINDS BUILD
CLOSE TO SHORE AND MODERATE WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY MONDAY
AFTERNOON. SHORT PERIOD SEA WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN RESPONSE. IN
ADDITION, A LONG PERIOD SWELL UP TO 5 FEET AT 20 SECONDS IS BUILDING
THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY AND ADDING TO A CHAOTIC SEA STATE. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE LAST WEEK, COLD AIR HAS
HELPED QUICKLY DROP FIRE DANGER WITH ERC VALUES APPROACHING THE 60TH
PERCENTILE BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. THAT SAID, HEAVIER FUELS REMAIN DRY
AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND ALONG SIDE STILL DRY RH WILL MAINTAIN
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY. MUCH WEAKER
WINDS THE REST OF THE WEEK ALONGSIDE GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS
WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER.
BEACH HAZARDS
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON
IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A PERIOD AROUND 22 SECONDS. THE SWELL WILL
BUILD THROUGH SUNDAY, PEAKING SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT AROUND
5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL RESULT IN A
HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF UNUSUAL SIZE
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR
SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY AS A RESULT.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
SUNDAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT AROUND
11AM TO 1PM SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG N CA COAST. A POSITIVE TIDAL
ANOMALY IS YIELDING TIDES AROUND 1-1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN PREDICTIONS
ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN USUAL TIDES, ADDING TO THE THREAT.
COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON LUNAR CYCLE IS CAUSING HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 1-1.5 FEET WILL YIELD
HIGH TIDES THAT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8.8 FT
FOR HUMBOLDT BAY TODAY, SUNDAY, AND MONDAY.
NORTH SPIT HIGH TIDE ESTIMATES: TODAY: OBSERVED TO PEAK AT 8.57 FT
AT 12:12 P.M.; SUNDAY: 8.8 FT AT 12:32 P.M.; MONDAY: 8.6 FT AT 1:01
P.M.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT FROM 4 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING
THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-103-104-109.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ108.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 4 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-
455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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