153
FXUS66 KEKA 112240
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
340 PM PDT SUN OCT 11 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH
GUSTS OVER 30 MPH ALONG EXPOSED RIDGES AND HEADLANDS IN
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE.
* CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR WILL ENABLE EXTENSIVE FROST AND
FREEZING CONDITIONS FOR TRINITY, NORTHEASTERN
MENDOCINO, NORTHERN LAKE, AND INTERIOR HUMBOLDT MONDAY MORNING.
* MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK, BUT NO WETTING RAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
STRONG NORTH WINDS WILL PERSIST TODAY, HELPING TO KEEP
EVEN THE COAST CLEAR. CONDITIONS WILL CALM MONDAY ALLOWING FOR A
WIDESPREAD FROSTY MORNING.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DIG SOUTH,
CONTINUING A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT ALONG SHORE. WINDS HAVE
TURNED MORE NORTHEASTERLY TODAY, ESPECIALLY INLAND. THE HIGHEST
EXPOSED RIDGES IN HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE AND AREAS ALONG SHORE
WILL AGAIN SEE GUSTS AROUND 30 TO 35 MPH WITH CALMER WINDS IN
SHELTERED TERRAIN. COOL, BUT DRY AIR WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO
THE AREA WITH INLAND HIGHS MAINLY IN THE 60S TO 70S. WINDS WILL
ALSO KEEP MARINE AIR SCATTERED OUT NEAR SHORE, ALLOWING FOR MOSTLY
STRATUS FREE SKIES.
AS WINDS WEAKEN, CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR MAY ALLOW FOR FREEZING
CONDITIONS MONDAY MORNING. A FREEZE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN TRINITY
COUNTY, NE MENDOCINO COUNTY, AND NORTHERN LAKE COUNTY DUE TO MODELS
INDICTING A 60 TO 80 PERCENT CHANCE OF FREEZING MORNING TEMPERATURES
FOR HAYFORK VALLEY, THE HWY 36 CORRIDOR FROM MAD RIVER TO ABOUT
FOREST GLEN AND DOWN TO RUTH, ROUND VALLEY (INCLUDING COVELO), AND
NORTHERN LAKE (AROUND GRAVELLY VALLEY AIRPORT). A FROST ADVISORY HAS
ALSO BEEN ISSUED FOR NORTHERN TRINITY COUNTY, INTERIOR HUMBOLDT AND
NORTHWESTERN CENTRAL MENDOCINO WITH MANY COLDER VALLEYS IN THE
REGION SHOWING A HIGH PROBABILITY FOR LOW TEMPERATURES OF 36
DEGREES OR LESS BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. EVEN THE COAST HAS GOOD
CHANCES OF LOWS NEAR 40, THE COLDEST OF THE YEAR SO FAR.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKELY REFORM BY TUESDAY
MORNING WITH SOME SHALLOW STRATUS POSSIBLE. ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY
THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT 10-14 DAYS), THOUGH
MUCH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE WILL GENERALLY RESULT IN MORE SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES. /JLW /JHW
AVIATION
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR TERMINALS IN
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA. GUSTY NORTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO
THIS EVENING FOR COASTAL TO NEAR COASTAL TERMINALS. GENERAL
OFFSHORE FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL AID IN KEEPING STRATUS FROM FORMING
AROUND COASTAL TERMINALS, KEEPING CONDITIONS VFR.
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS ARE ONGOING IN ALL WATERS WITH SOME GUSTS
AS HIGH AS 40 KTS IN THE LEE OF CAPE MENDOCINO. WINDS HAVE
SURGED BACK CLOSE TO SHORE AND WILL CONTINUE LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND INTO THE EVENING. SHORT PERIOD SEAS REMAIN STEEP AND HAZARDOUS
IN EXCESS OF 12 FEET. WINDS WILL QUICKLY PULL BACK FROM SHORE BY
EARLY MONDAY MORNING WITH GENTLE WINDS BUILD CLOSE TO SHORE AND
MODERATE WINDS IN THE OUTER WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SHORT
PERIOD SEA WILL GRADUALLY FALL IN RESPONSE. IN ADDITION, A LONG
PERIOD SWELL UP TO 5 FEET AT 20 SECONDS IS BUILDING THROUGH THE
DAY SUNDAY AND ADDING TO A CHAOTIC SEA STATE. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
AFTER A PROLONGED HEAT WAVE LAST WEEK, COLD AIR HAS
HELPED QUICKLY DROP FIRE DANGER WITH ERC VALUES APPROACHING THE 60TH
PERCENTILE BY EARLY THIS COMING WEEK. THAT SAID, HEAVIER FUELS
REMAIN DRY AND GUSTY NORTHEAST WIND ALONG SIDE STILL DRY RH WILL
MAINTAIN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER AT LEAST THROUGH THE REST OF TODAY.
MUCH WEAKER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK,
ALONGSIDE GENERALLY SEASONABLE CONDITIONS WILL LIMIT FIRE DANGER.
BEACH HAZARDS
THE FIRST LONG PERIOD SWELL OF THE SEASON
IS CURRENTLY BUILDING IN. THE WEST-NORTHWEST SWELL HAS ARRIVED TO
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA WITH A PERIOD AROUND 22 SECONDS. THE SWELL WILL
CONTINUE TO BUILD TODAY, PEAKING THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AT
AROUND 5 FEET AT 19 SECONDS. THIS VERY LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL
RESULT IN A HEIGHTENED CHANCE FOR SNEAKER WAVES AND RUN-UPS OF
UNUSUAL SIZE THROUGH MONDAY EVENING. A BEACH HAZARD STATEMENT HAS
BEEN ISSUED FOR SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY MIDDAY AS A RESULT.
WHILE THE THREAT FOR SNEAKER WAVES WILL BE PERSISTENT THROUGHOUT
TODAY AND MONDAY, THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF
INCOMING TIDES. WITH HIGH TIDES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT
AROUND 11AM TO 1PM SUNDAY AND MONDAY ALONG N CA COAST. A POSITIVE
TIDAL ANOMALY IS YIELDING TIDES AROUND 1-1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN
PREDICTIONS ON TOP OF HIGHER THAN USUAL TIDES, ADDING TO THE
THREAT.
COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON LUNAR CYCLE IS CAUSING HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 1-1.5 FEET WILL YIELD
HIGH TIDES THAT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8.8 FT
FOR HUMBOLDT BAY TODAY, AND MONDAY.
NORTH SPIT HIGH TIDE ESTIMATES: TODAY: PEAK WAS 8.71 FT AT 12:24
P.M.; MONDAY: 8.6 FT AT 1:01 P.M.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-
103-104-109.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ450-455.
GALE WARNING UNTIL 2 AM PDT MONDAY FOR PZZ470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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