797
FXUS66 KEKA 120728
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1228 AM PDT MON OCT 12 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* MUCH MORE MODERATE WINDS MONDAY WITH GUSTS GENERALLY BELOW 20 MPH
EVEN IN EXPOSED AREAS.
* CLEAR SKIES AND COOL AIR WILL ENABLE EXTENSIVE FROST AND FREEZING
CONDITIONS IN TRINITY AND INTERIOR HUMBOLDT MONDAY MORNING WITH
SOME FROST AGAIN TUESDAY.
* MORE SEASONABLE CONDITIONS THIS WEEK BUT NO WETTING RAIN
FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 10 DAYS.
SYNOPSIS
WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE MODERATE MONDAY WITH CLEAR SKIES
PERSISTING EVEN ALONG SHORE. FROST CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY WILL
GIVE WAY TO SEASONABLY COOL BUT DRY DAYTIME HIGHS ALL ACROSS THE
AREA.
DISCUSSION
STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO QUICKLY
WEAKEN OVERNIGHT AND INTO MONDAY. CLEAR SKIES, CALMER WINDS, AND
INTERIOR DEWPOINTS AROUND 30 WILL ALLOW MANY INTERIOR VALLEYS TO
EXPERIENCE FREEZE AND FROST CONDITIONS EARLY MONDAY. EVEN THE COAST
IS LIKELY TO SEE MORE ISOLATED FROST BY SUNRISE. OTHERWISE, COOL AIR
WILL REMAIN MONDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 70S. DRY AIR
AND OFFSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INHIBIT THE FORMATION OF ANY
STRONG MARINE LAYER NEAR SHORE.
CONDITIONS WILL GRADUALLY WARM THROUGH THE WEEK UNDER THE INFLUENCE
OF WEAK HIGH PRESSURE. A MARINE LAYER WILL LIKEWISE FORM BACK UP
WITH SOME SHALLOW STRATUS POSSIBLE BY TUESDAY, THOUGH INTERIOR
LOCATIONS ARE LIKELY TO SEE AT LEAST ONE MORE FROSTY MORNING EARLY
TUESDAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS LIKELY TO BE VERY SCATTERED AND EASY TO
CLEAR THROUGH MIDWEEK. WEAK WINDS AND HEAT WILL LIKELY PEAK AROUND
FRIDAY WITH THE WARMEST VALLEYS REACHING AROUND 90. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL AID IN A MORE RESILIENT MARINE LAYER BY THE END OF THE WEEK.
ENSEMBLES REMAIN DRY THROUGHOUT THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD (NEXT
10-14 DAYS), THOUGH THERE IS A 10% CHANCE OF VERY LIGHT RAIN AROUND
DAY 8. MUCH WEAKER HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND WILL GENERALLY RESULT
IN MORE COOL SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES BY THE WEEKEND WITH AN
EXPANDING MARINE LAYER. /JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
THE STRONG MIXING EFFECT OF WINDS HAS AGAIN
ENABLED VFR CONDITIONS ALL ACROSS THE AREA EVEN ALONG SHORE. NEARLY
ALL MODELS SHOW LIGHT OFFSHORE FLOW AND DRY AIR ALLOWING VFR TO
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NEXT 24 HOURS. WINDS WILL BE MUCH MORE MODERATE
MONDAY WITH ONLY SOME GUSTS NEAR 20 MPH CLOSE TO COASTAL TERMINALS.
A VERY WEAK MARINE LAYER WITH ISOLATED IFR CEILINGS COULD BE
POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS TUESDAY MORNING (20% CHANCE). /JHW
MARINE
GALE CONDITIONS ARE QUICKLY WEAKENING ACROSS THE WATERS
EARLY MONDAY MORNING, THOUGH SHORT PERIOD SEA GENERALLY REMAIN VERY
STEEP OVER 12 FEET EVEN CLOSE TO SHORE. BY MID MORNING, WINDS IN THE
INNER WATERS WILL BE MUCH MORE MODERATE WITH GUSTS NEAR OR BELOW 20
KTS. NEAR GALE CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN THE OUTER WATERS NEAR 30
KTS. SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL SLOWLY FALL, GENERALLY BELOW 10 FEET BY
MONDAY AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AND PULL AWAY
FURTHER FORM SHORE WITH MOSTLY CALM CONDITIONS FOR THE INNER WATERS
BY DAYTIME TUESDAY. A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY AROUND 5 FEET AT
19 SECONDS WILL GRADUALLY DECAY TO 5 FEET AT 16 SECONDS THROUGH
MONDAY AND REMAIN INTO MIDWEEK. /JHW
FIRE WEATHER
MULTIPLE DAYS OF COOL BUT DRY AIR HAS HELPED DROP
ERC VALUES BACK TO THE 60TH PERCENTILE. MUCH WEAKER WINDS IN THE
COMING DAYS WILL HELP GREATLY REDUCE OVERALL FIRE DANGER.
CONDITIONS, HOWEVER, WILL REMAIN DRY THROUGH THE WEEK (AROUND 20% RH
EACH DAY) WITH WORSENING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH THURSDAY.
SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL ALSO WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ANY FIRES THAT
DO START. MORE MOIST AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
WEEKEND. /JHW
BEACH HAZARDS
A LONG PERIOD SWELL CURRENTLY UP TO ABOUT 5 FEET AT
19 SECONDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY. AS SHORT PERIOD SEAS
BEGIN TO FALL, THIS SWELL WILL PROVIDE AND INCREASING SNEAKER WAVE
RISK THROUGH THE DAY. THE SWELL WILL BEGIN TO DECAY TUESDAY. THE
SNEAKER WAVE RISK WILL LESSEN AS THE SWELL DECAYS, BUT WILL REMAIN
THROUGH MIDWEEK ESPECIALLY AS SHORT PERIOD SEAS CALM.
THE HIGHEST RISK IS EXPECTED DURING PERIODS OF INCOMING TIDES. WITH
HIGH TIDES ALONG THE CALIFORNIA COAST AT AROUND 11AM TO 1PM SUNDAY
AND MONDAY ALONG N CA COAST. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY IS YIELDING
TIDES AROUND 1-1.5 FEET HIGHER THAN PREDICTIONS ON TOP OF HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES, ADDING TO THE THREAT. /JHW
COASTAL FLOODING
A NEW MOON LUNAR CYCLE IS CAUSING HIGHER
THAN USUAL TIDES. A POSITIVE TIDAL ANOMALY OF 1-1.5 FEET WILL YIELD
HIGH TIDES THAT WILL BE NEAR OR EVEN REACH ADVISORY LEVELS OF 8.8 FT
FOR HUMBOLDT BAY TODAY, AND MONDAY.
NORTH SPIT HIGH TIDE ESTIMATES: TODAY: PEAK WAS 8.71 FT AT 12:24
P.M.; MONDAY: 8.6 FT AT 1:01 P.M.
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
BEACH HAZARDS STATEMENT THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ101-
103-104-109.
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ105-106-
110-116-117.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ108-111-
114.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
GALE WARNING UNTIL 3 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR PZZ450-
455-470-475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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