706
FXUS66 KEKA 130711
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1211 AM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF
FROST AND FREEZING POTENTIAL.
* DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO AREAS OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITIES
THROUGH THE WEEK.
* A WARMING TREND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH THE WEEK
INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING ON FRIDAY.
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY. ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING IS FORECAST THIS MORNING WITH AREAS
OF FROST AND FREEZING POTENTIAL. A WARMING TREND WILL INCREASE
TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEK.
DISCUSSION
LAST WEEKEND, A COLD FRONT BROUGHT COOLER AND DRY
AIR TO THE AREA. THIS SYSTEM DISRUPTED THE MARINE LAYER ALLOWING FOR
CLEAR SKIES AT THE COAST THROUGH EARLY THIS WEEK AS STEADY LIGHT
OFFSHORE WINDS OVERNIGHT CONTINUE. CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WIND WILL
ALLOW FOR UNINTERRUPTED COOLING IN THE VALLEY FLOORS. FROST
ADVISORIES AND FREEZE WARNINGS HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MANY
INTERIOR VALLEYS FROM 1 A.M. THROUGH 8 A.M. THIS MORNING.
WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO HAVE MUCH LESS IMPACTS
FROM COOLER TEMPERATURES AS TEMPERATURES COULD STRUGGLE TO REACH
OR GO BELOW 32F.
THROUGH THE WEEK, A SLIGHT WARMING TREND WILL TAKE EFFECT DUE TO A
BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE. THIS WEATHER PATTERN WILL RESULT IN
CALM, CHILLY CONDITIONS WITH BUILDING WINDS IN THE AFTERNOON AS
DAYTIME HEATING TAKES EFFECT. INLAND HEATING IS LIKELY TO PEAK
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH VALLEYS REACHING THE HIGH 80S TO LOW 90S
AGAIN. WINDS WILL BE MOSTLY TERRAIN DRIVEN WITH UPSLOPE - UPVALLEY
FLOW. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL REACH A MINIMUM LATE WEEK WITH
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF RH VALUES <20%. HOWEVER, WINDS WARE LIKELY TO
REMAIN TERRAIN-DRIVEN AND LIGHT TO MODERATE LATE WEEK.
THIS COMING SUNDAY INTO NEXT MONDAY, ENSEMBLE CLUSTERS SHOW AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT ENTERING THE AREA. BOTH
THE GEFS AND EPS SUPPORT THIS AS WELL. THIS SYSTEM IS 7DAYS OUT AND
COULD CHANGE SUBSTANTIALLY THROUGH THE WEEK. MOST OF THIS SYSTEM'S
RAIN WOULD FALL IN THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OF DEL NORTE, HUMBOLDT, AND
TRINITY WHERE SOME OF THE HIGHEST RIDGES ABOVE 4000FT COULD SEE VERY
LIGHT SNOW WHEREAS MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTIES ARE MORE LIKELY TO
SEE MODERATE TO STRONG NW WINDS IF THIS SYSTEM REMAINS ON TRACK.
THIS SYSTEM IS CAPABLE OF CHANGING AND UPDATES CAN BE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE WEEK. DS
AVIATION...06Z UPDATE
NORTHERLY WINDS VEER NORTHEASTERLY AND
EVENTUALLY MORE ENE OVERNIGHT AT KCEC. THIS OFFSHORE SET UP WILL
KEEP TERMINALS CLEAR OVERNIGHT FOR THE MOST PART. SIMILAR SET UP AT
KACV OVERNIGHT BUT MORE TRUE TO EASTERLY WITH LIGHT WINDS UNDER
5KTS. CLOUD COVER NOT LIKELY TO IMPACT FLIGHT CATEGORIES UNTIL DUSK
HOURS BEFORE SUNSET ON TUESDAY. SOME HAZE MAY LIGHTLY OBFUSCATE
VISIBILITY AT TIMES FROM AREA WILDFIRES BUT NOT HEAVILY. NORTHERLIES
RETURN TO KUKI BY THE EARLY EVENING TOMORROW, VFR OTHERWISE. /EYS
MARINE
WINDS ARE BACKING AWAY FROM THE COASTLINE AND EASING. THE
HAZARDOUS SEAS WARNING WAS CANCELED EARLY DUE TO IMPROVING CONDITIONS
MONDAY AFTERNOON. OVERNIGHT IT LOOKS LIKE SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS FOR
ALL AREA WATERS WITH BOTH THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN INNER WATER
LOSING THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORIES JUST BEFORE SUNRISE. SOME
LINGERING STEEP SEAS OVERNIGHT AROUND 11 FEET IN THE OUTER WATERS,
EASING TO AROUND 7 FEET THIS MORNING. WINDS BUILD BACK UP TODAY AT
10-15KTS WITH SC.Y LASTING LONGER IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS,
ZONE PZZ475.
FIRE WEATHER
MULTIPLE DAYS OF COOL BUT DRY AIR HAS LOWERED ERC
VALUES. MUCH WEAKER, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE COMING DAYS WILL HELP GREATLY REDUCE OVERALL FIRE
DANGER. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
(AROUND 20% RH EACH DAY) WITH WORSENING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELTS DEVELOP. SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL
ALSO WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ANY FIRES THAT DO START. MORE MOIST
AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTY
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ103-104-
106-108>111-114-116>118.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ108-110-
111-114-116-117.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM PDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
PZZ450-455.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL NOON PDT TODAY FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM PDT THIS EVENING FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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