821
FXUS66 KEKA 131913
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1213 PM PDT TUE OCT 13 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* ANOTHER COLD MORNING IS EXPECTED THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF FROST
AND FREEZING POTENTIAL.
* A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE AREA THROUGH
THE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND, PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING ON A COLD FRONT ARRIVING EITHER
LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
CLEAR SKIES AND SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TODAY WITH ANOTHER CHILLY MORNING EXPECTED FOR THE INLAND VALLEYS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK. A FRONTAL
SYSTEM IS PROBABLE LATE THIS WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD OVER THE
REGION AS THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THAT USHERED IN THE COLDER AIR
THIS WEEKEND CONTINUES TO MOVE EASTWARD OVER THE GRAND CANYON
TODAY. THIS DEVELOPING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CAUSE A STEADY WARM UP
INLAND FROM SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES TODAY TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS BY
THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. OVERNIGHT CALMING WILL RESULT IN COLD
AIR FLOWING DOWN THE TERRAIN AND SETTLING IN THE VALLEYS. FREEZING
TEMPERATURES WERE RECORDED IN TRINITY COUNTY LAST NIGHT, AND A
SLIGHT WARMING IS POSSIBLE THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING WITH FROST
POTENTIAL FOR THE COLDEST VALLEYS.
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK PEAKING
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. RELATIVE HUMIDITIES ARE EXPECTED TO BE <20% FOR
TRINITY, LAKE, AND INLAND AREAS OF MENDOCINO COUNTY. NBM DATA
PROBABILITIES SHOWS AROUND A 30-40% OF TEMPERATURES >90DEGF FOR
UKIAH. MODELS ARE STILL HOLDING STRONG ON AN INCOMING COLD FRONT
ARRIVING THIS WEEKEND WHICH COULD BRING RAIN AND STRONG WINDS TO THE
AREA. DETAILS ON THIS SYSTEM WILL BECOME MORE CLEAR AS THE WEEK
GOES. DS
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN. NORTHERLIES WILL CONTINUE ALONG THE COAST BEFORE TURNING TO
LIGHT SOUTHERLIES THIS EVENING. CALMING WINDS AND SOME VERY SHALLOW
GROUND FOG IS POSSIBLE EARLY TOMORROW JUST BEFORE DAWN. INLAND AREAS
CAN EXPECT TERRAIN INFLUENCED WINDS PEAKING IN THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
WIDESPREAD CALMING.
MARINE
MODERATE TO FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZES ARE EXPECTED IN
THE OUTER WATERS TODAY. WINDS WILL REMAIN MUCH LIGHTER FOR THE INNER
WATERS WITH MAX GUSTS UP TO 15-20KTS DURING THE HEAT OF THE
AFTERNOON. SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE OUTER WATERS DUE
TO DECAYING SHORT PERIOD SEAS MIXING WITH A MID-PERIOD NW SWELL.
THROUGH THE WEEK, SHORT PERIOD SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO LOWER WHILE
THIS NW SWELL EASES EVEN SLOWER. THIS WEEKEND, A LARGE NW SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO IMPACT THE COASTAL WATERS AS A COLD FRONT ENTER THE
AREA. DS
FIRE WEATHER
MULTIPLE DAYS OF COOL BUT DRY AIR HAS LOWERED ERC
VALUES. MUCH WEAKER, TERRAIN-DRIVEN WINDS AND AN INCREASINGLY STABLE
ATMOSPHERE IN THE COMING DAYS WILL HELP GREATLY REDUCE OVERALL FIRE
DANGER. HOWEVER, DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEK
(AROUND 20% RH EACH DAY) WITH WORSENING OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES THROUGH
THURSDAY AS MIDSLOPE THERMAL BELTS DEVELOP. SMOKE TRANSPORT WILL
ALSO WORSEN THROUGH THE WEEK FOR ANY FIRES THAT DO START. MORE MOIST
AIR IS EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA THIS WEEKEND WITH A
POTENTIAL FOR VERY BREEZY CONDITIONS IN MENDOCINO AND LAKE COUNTY
LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 8 AM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR CAZ104-
106-108-110-111-114-116-117-120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM PDT WEDNESDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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