072
FXUS66 KEKA 140915
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
215 AM PDT WED OCT 14 2026
KEY MESSAGES
KEY MESSAGES
* GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY WEAK MARINE INFLUENCE NEAR
SHORE THROUGH THURSDAY.
* A WARMING TREND PEAKING THURSDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE 90S.
* COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 50%
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
SYNOPSIS
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY,
EVEN FOR THE COAST WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK. COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
THIS PATTERN WILL ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE INCREASING
WEDNESDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID 80S AT LOW
ELEVATIONS. HEAT WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITHS HIGHS REACHING
UNSEASONABLY INTO THE LOW 90S. MEANWHILE, A VERY WEAK MARINE LAYER
WILL CONTINUE FORMING ALONG SHORE AIDED BY A STRENGTHENING INTERIOR
INVERSION. THAT SAID, MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW (ESPECIALLY THURSDAY)
WILL KEEP CONDITIONS DRY AND MAKE ANY MARINE LAYER WEEK AND SHALLOW.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. WINDS TURNING BACK
ONSHORE WILL HELP PUSH IN A DEEPER AND STRONGER MARINE LAYER WITH
INTERIOR HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE 70S. POTENTIAL IS INCREASING
FOR A COLD FRONT PASSAGE AROUND MONDAY. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG
THE NORTH COAST HAS INCREASED TO ABOUT 50% WITH MOST LIKELY RAINFALL
OF 0.1 TO 0.25 INCHES. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL, THERE IS HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN GENERALLY SEASONABLE COOL AND MOISTER CONDITIONS
THROUGH NEXT WEEK. /JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
WINDS HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST SINCE THEIR
CHANGE FROM THE STEADY NORTHERLY SET UP FROM THE PREVIOUS DAYS
REGIME AT KCEC. KACV IS A BIT MORE EASTERLY AND WILL CONTINUE TO BE
SO, UNTIL WEDNESDAY LATE MORNING WHEN THEY PICK UP OUT OF THE WNW AT
5-6KTS OR SO. CLOUD COVER IS INCREASING AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM BUT
WILL NOT HAVE A SIGNIFICANT EFFECT ON FLIGHT CATEGORIES NEAR THE
FLIGHT DECK. SOME HAZE MAY LIGHTLY OBFUSCATE VISIBILITY AT TIMES
FROM AREA WILDFIRES BUT NOT HEAVILY. LIGHT WINDS AT KUKI TOMORROW,
VFR OTHERWISE. /EYS
&
MARINE
SEAS REMAIN STEEP AND HAZARDOUS TO SMALLER CRAFTS,
PARTICULARLY IN THE SOUTHERN OUTER WATERS AS DECAYING SHORT PERIOD
SEAS MIX WITH A MODERATELY LARGE NW SWELL. MODERATE TO FRESH BREEZES
AND A MIXED SEA STATE EXPECTED THROUGH THE COASTAL WATERS FOR MUCH
OF THE WEEK. AREAS DOWNWIND OF CAPE MENDOCINO CAN EXPECT STRONGER
WINDS THROUGH WEDNESDAY. /EYS
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 90 WITH RH STICKING IN THE
THE TEENS. ERC VALUES WILL RETURN CLOSE TO THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
REPRESENTING MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. THAT SAID GENERALLY WEAK
WINDS WILL LIMIT SPREAD. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS WOULD BE LAKE COUNTY
ON THURSDAY WHEN TILTING HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENABLE SOME ENHANCED NE
WIND DURING THE DAY (GUSTS NEAR 25 KTS). /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR CAZ104-106-
108-110-111-114-116-117-120.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 3 AM PDT THURSDAY
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 AM PDT THURSDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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