050
FXUS66 KEKA 150913
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
213 AM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOCUSED IN LAKE
COUNTY WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* A WARMING TREND PEAKING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN
THE 90S.
* COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. 50%
CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
SYNOPSIS
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL PEAK TODAY AND FRIDAY,
EVEN FOR THE COAST WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK. COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS BUILD BY THE WEEKEND.
DISCUSSION
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA.
INTERIOR HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH HIGHS
IN THE 90S, WHICH IS MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL FOR MID OCTOBER.
MEANWHILE, A POSITIVELY TITLED TROUGH PASSING ACROSS CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA WILL PROMOTE MODERATE TO STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS,
ESPECIALLY FOR THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA. GUSTS WILL GENERALLY
REMAIN LESS THAN 25 MPH, BUT THEY WILL PULL IN VERY DRY AIR KEEPING
EVEN THE COAST MOSTLY FREE OF MARINE INFLUENCE. WINDS WILL WEAKEN
AGAIN FRIDAY, LIKELY (50% CHANCE) ALLOW A WEAK MARINE LAYER TO
FINALLY FORM NEAR SHORE.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BREAK DOWN THIS WEEKEND. WINDS TURNING BACK
ONSHORE WILL HELP PUSH IN A DEEPER AND STRONGER MARINE LAYER WITH
INTERIOR HIGHS PULLING BACK INTO THE 70S. A COLD FRONT WILL CROSS
THE AREA AROUND MONDAY, BUT POTENTIAL MOISTURE WITH THE FRONT
REMAINS UNCERTAIN. WETTING RAIN POTENTIAL ALONG THE NORTH COAST HAS
DECREASED BACK TO ABOUT 30% WITH MOST LIKELY RAINFALL OF 0.1 TO 0.15
INCHES. WINDS WITH THE FRONT APPEAR ONLY MODERATE AT BEST EVEN IN
HIGH END MODELS. REGARDLESS OF RAINFALL, THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
GENERALLY SEASONABLE COOL AND MOIST CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK
WITH ANOTHER FRONT LIKELY AROUND NEXT WEDNESDAY. /JHW
AVIATION...06Z TAF
WINDS HAVE VEERED SOUTHEAST SINCE THEIR
CHANGE FROM THE STEADY NORTHERLY SET UP FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING
REGIME AT KCEC. EXPECT A MORE EASTERLY BEARING OVERNIGHT BELOW 5KTS
AT KCEC WITH A SLIGHT PROBABILITY OF GROUND FOG AS A BRIEF
VISIBILITY OBFUSCATION INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. KACV HAS A
LIGHT WIND OUT OF THE EAST OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL TURN WESTERLY
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AROUND 5-6KTS. LIGHT WINDS AT KUKI TOMORROW WITH
WINDS PICKING UP IN THE EARLY EVENING AT A VARIABLE BEARING AND
UNDER 6KTS, VFR OTHERWISE. /EYS
&
MARINE
NORTHERLIES CONTINUE TO REDUCE IN AREA, EXPOSING LIGHTER
WINDS OVER THE INNER AND MOST OF THE OUTER WATERS. SEAS REDUCING
FROM 8FT TO AROUND 5-6FT BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH 4-5FT SEAS IN
THE INNER WATERS. AN UPPER MID PERIOD SWELL CONTINUES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AT 4FT-13SEC AND A WESTERLY SWELL AT 2FT-16SEC, THROUGH
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND DIMINISHING A FEW DAYS AFTER. THE SEA STATE
WILL BE MIXED WITH A RETURN OF NEAR GALE NORTHERLIES LATE IN THE
WEEKEND. /EYS
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 90 WITH RH STICKING IN THE
THE TEENS. ERC VALUES WILL RETURN CLOSE TO THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
REPRESENTING MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. SAID PERCENTILES ARE NEAR
RECORD BREAKING FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BUT REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN PEAK
SUMMER.
BEYOND JUST WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROMOTE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS TODAY, MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO HIGH RIDGES AS FAR NORTH AS
CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY WITH GUSTS MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER 25 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, BUT
REMAIN GUSTY ALONG HIGH RIDGES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING.
CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WINDS
WITH MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RH. /JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ418-
419.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ418-419.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
NONE.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page