317
FXUS66 KEKA 152128
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
228 PM PDT THU OCT 15 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOCUSED IN LAKE
COUNTY WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.
* A WARMING TREND PEAKING TODAY AND FRIDAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN
THE 90S.
* COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
50% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
SYNOPSIS
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL PEAK TODAY AND FRIDAY,
EVEN FOR THE COAST WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK. COOLER AND
MORE MOIST CONDITIONS BUILD BY THE WEEKEND. EARLY NEXT WEEK
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES THAT ARE TEN TO FIFTEEN DEGREES ABOVE
NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH THROUGH THE
GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS IS EXPECTED TO
BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHEAST WINDS TO LAKE AND MENDOCINO
COUNTIES TONIGHT AND INTO FRIDAY MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE INLAND AREAS
ON FRIDAY ALTHOUGH THE COAST WILL BE COOLER THAN TODAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DROP INLAND
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
EXPAND. SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THE
WARMER VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN HAS NOW PUSHED BACK UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON
OR MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING
RAIN IN HUMBODLT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FARTHER SOUTH PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, BUT THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW BRINGING MORE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE STARTS
TO BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND
HOW WARM IT WILL BE.
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE
WIDESPREAD VFR IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE DAY
AGAIN. LIGHT WINDS ALONG THE COAST WILL LEAD TO DECREASED CHANCES OF
ANY LLT. LATE TONIGHT, SOME OF THE HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE
SUGGESTING A REBUILD OF THE MARINE LAYER, YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW (~25-
30 %) LEADING TO ONLY A TEMPO GROUP OF LIFR FOR CEC AND SCT COVERAGE
AT ACV FOR THE TIME BEING.
ONGOING BREEZY WINDS INLAND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MIDDAY BEFORE
CALMING THIS AFTERNOON. N-NE WINDS WILL BE THE DOMINATE DIRECTION,
YET THE TERRAIN'S INFLUENCE COULD CAUSE SOME SHIFTS IN DIRECTION
THROUGH THE DAY, ESPECIALLY IN MORE COMPLEX AREAS. WINDS ARE
FORECASTED TO CALM AGAIN TONIGHT IN THE VALLEYS WITH BREEZES UP TO
15MPH CONTINUING NEAR THE RIDGELINES, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN LAKE AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. DS
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. THE WAVES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST
SWELL AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 5
FEET AT 12 SECONDS WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 3
FEET AT 15 SECONDS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START
BUILDING INTO THE WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST INCREASE IN
THE SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN EXPAND NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AND START TO
DIMINISH ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE
EXPECTED EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEY MAY BE SOUTHERLY. MID-WEEK
NORTHERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PEAK THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. INTERIOR HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 90 WITH RH STICKING IN THE
THE TEENS. ERC VALUES WILL RETURN CLOSE TO THE 80TH PERCENTILE,
REPRESENTING MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. SAID PERCENTILES ARE
NEAR RECORD BREAKING FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BUT REMAIN MUCH LOWER
THAN PEAK SUMMER.
BEYOND JUST WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS, A VERY POSITIVELY TILTED TROUGH
OVER THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST WILL PROMOTE MODERATE NORTHEAST
WINDS TODAY, MOSTLY RESTRICTED TO HIGH RIDGES AS FAR NORTH AS
CENTRAL HUMBOLDT COUNTY. WINDS WILL BE LOCALLY STRONG IN SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN LAKE COUNTY WITH GUSTS MIXING IN THE AFTERNOON OVER 25 MPH.
THESE WINDS WILL PROMOTE AREAS OF CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER WITH A RED
FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT. TONIGHT THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE
OVER THE RIDGES OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY SO UPGRADED
AND EXPANDED THE FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR THESE LOCATIONS. IT LOOKS
LIKE THE WINDS WILL INCREASE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED SO HAVE STARTED
THE RWF AT 10PM. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL WEAKEN FRIDAY, BUT REMAIN
GUSTY ALONG HIGH RIDGES AT LEAST THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS
WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY FRIDAY IN THE WAKE OF THE WINDS WITH
MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEEING SINGLE DIGIT RH. MKK/JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 2 PM PDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR CAZ418-
419.
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON FOR CAZ418-419.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM FRIDAY TO 9 PM PDT SATURDAY
FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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