629
FXUS66 KEKA 160737
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
1237 AM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* VERY DRY CONDITIONS WITH GUSTY NORTHEAST WINDS FOCUSED IN LAKE
COUNTY WILL INCREASE FIRE DANGER TODAY.
* A WARMING TREND PEAKING TODAY WITH INTERIOR HIGHS IN THE 90S.
* COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
50% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
SYNOPSIS
A GENERAL WARMING TREND WILL PEAK TODAY , EVEN FOR THE
COAST WHERE MARINE INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK. COOLER AND MORE MOIST
CONDITIONS BUILD BY THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE AREA TODAY
BRINGING WARM TEMPERATURES TO THE INTERIOR THAT ARE TEN TO FIFTEEN
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO DROP SOUTH
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN AND TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN CA COAST. THIS IS
EXPECTED TO BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF NORTHEAST WINDS TO LAKE AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO BRING DRIER AIR TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.
THIS OFFSHORE FLOW IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE MARINE CLOUDS AND FOG
MOSTLY OUT OF THE AREA, ALTHOUGH A FEW LOCAL AREAS OF FOG ARE
POSSIBLE. HOT WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THE INLAND AREAS
TODAY ALTHOUGH THE COAST WILL BE COOLER THAN YESTERDAY.
FOR THE WEEKEND FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MORE ZONAL AS A WEATHER SYSTEM
MOVES BY TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA. THIS WILL DROP INLAND
TEMPERATURES EACH DAY AND THE MARINE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND.
SUNDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 80 IN THE WARMER
VALLEYS WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE COAST.
THE POTENTIAL FOR RAIN HAS NOW PUSHED BACK UNTIL MONDAY AFTERNOON OR
MONDAY NIGHT. THERE IS A 30 TO 50 PERCENT CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN
IN HUMBODLT AND DEL NORTE COUNTIES BY TUESDAY MORNING.
FARTHER SOUTH PROBABILITIES ARE LOWER, BUT THERE IS STILL THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME RAIN. SOME OF THE MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
BRINGING MORE RAIN FARTHER SOUTH.
AS THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM MOVES OUT OF THE AREA HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO
BUILD BACK INTO THE AREA BRINGING A RETURN OF DRY WEATHER AND HOW
WARM IT WILL BE.
AVIATION
MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE FOR
TERMINALS OF NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA OVER THIS TAF PERIOD. SOME OF THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION MODELS ARE SUGGESTING A REBUILD OF THE MARINE
LAYER EARLY THIS MORNING, YET CONFIDENCE IS LOW (~25-30 %) LEADING
TO ONLY SCATTERED LOW LEVEL CLUDS. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO CONTINUE TO
BE CALM INTO THE MORNING FOR THE VALLEYS WITH BREEZES UP TO 15MPH
CONTINUING NEAR THE RIDGELINES, ESPECIALLY IN EASTERN LAKE AND
MENDOCINO COUNTIES. A MORE ROBUST COASTAL STRATUS LAYER MAY DEVELOP
TONIGHT AND INTO SATURDAY MORNING.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THIS MORNING.
THE WAVES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST SWELL AND A MORE
SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 5 FEET AT 12 SECONDS
WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 3 FEET AT 15 SECONDS.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO START BUILDING
INTO THE WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN EXPAND NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AND START TO DIMINISH ON
SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED EARLY
NEXT WEEK AND THEY MAY BE SOUTHERLY. MID-WEEK NORTHERLY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL PEAK TODAY. INTERIOR
HIGHS WILL REACH NEAR 90 WITH RH STICKING IN THE THE TEENS. ERC
VALUES WILL RETURN CLOSE TO THE 80TH PERCENTILE, REPRESENTING
MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. SAID PERCENTILES ARE NEAR RECORD
BREAKING FOR THE TIME OF YEAR BUT REMAIN MUCH LOWER THAN PEAK
SUMMER.
EARLY THIS MORNING, THE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE
RIDGES OF EASTERN AND SOUTHERN LAKE COUNTY SO THE FIRE WEATHER
WARNING WILL CONITNUE FOR THESE LOCATIONS. NORTHEAST WINDS WILL
WEAKEN LATER TODAY, BUT REMAIN GUSTY ALONG HIGH RIDGES AT LEAST
THROUGH THE MORNING. CONDITIONS WILL BE EXCEPTIONALLY DRY TODAY IN
THE WAKE OF THE WINDS WITH MANY INTERIOR LOCATIONS SEEING SINGLE
DIGIT RH. MKK/JHW
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 11 AM PDT THIS MORNING FOR
CAZ418>420.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 9 PM PDT
SATURDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
VISIT US AT HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/EUREKA
FOLLOW US ON FACEBOOK AND TWITTER AT:
HTTPS://WWW.FACEBOOK.COM/NWSEUREKA
HTTPS://WWW.TWITTER.COM/NWSEUREKA
FOR FORECAST ZONE INFORMATION
SEE THE FORECAST ZONE MAP ONLINE:
HTTPS://WWW.WEATHER.GOV/IMAGES/EKA/ZONEMAP.PNG
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page