552
FXUS66 KEKA 162103
AFDEKA
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EUREKA CA
203 PM PDT FRI OCT 16 2026
KEY MESSAGES
* TODAY IS THE LAST DAY OF WARMER TEMPERATURES FOR INTERIOR AREAS.
* COLD FRONT MOST LIKELY TO CROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
20-30% CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN ALONG THE NORTH COAST.
* COOLER TEMPERATURES WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF LINGERING SHOWERS
THROUGH THE WEEK.
SYNOPSIS
WARMING PEAKS TODAY INLAND AND ALONG THE COAST WHERE
MARINE INFLUENCE REMAINS WEAK. COOLER AND MORE MOIST CONDITIONS
BUILD THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.
DISCUSSION
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN WARMING
TEMPERATURES ALL WEEK FOR NW CA WILL BEGIN TO FLATTEN THIS EVENING.
WITH THIS SHIFT IN THE SYNOPTIC SET UP, EXPECT COOLER, MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES SATURDAY. THE MARINE LAYER IS ALSO EXPECTED
TO REBUILD THIS EVENING GIVING THE NORTH COAST A HIGHER CHANCE OF
FOG AND DECREASES CHANCE OF COLD MORNING TEMPERTURES UNDER 40F. AN
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY SITUATED OVER ALASKA IS EXPECTED TO
PASS BY THE FORECAST AREA SUNDAY AFTERNOON, CAUSING FURTHER COOLING
INLAND FOR MONDAY. RAIN CHANCES ARE ALSO HIGHLY VARIABLE DUE TO THE
FRONTAL SYSTEM REMAINING OFF THE COASTLINE. WHILE THE CHANCE FOR ANY
RAIN (>0.01") IS AROUND 20-50% FOR ALL AREAS OUTSIDE OF LAKE COUNTY,
YET WETTING RAIN (>0.10") REMAINS LIMITED TO DEL NORTE AND HUMBOLDT
COASTLINE WITH ONLY A 20-30% ON MONDAY. THIS MEANS THAT VERY LIGHT
RAIN IS MORE LIKELY THAN ANY IMPACTFUL RAINFALL FROM THIS SYSTEM
THROUGH MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK, EXPECT VALLEY FOG EACH MORNING AS PWAT
VALUES INCREASE TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL. LIMITED COVERAGE
OF LIGHT RAINSHOWERS IS POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEK AS WELL,
ESPECIALLY FOR HIGHER ELEVATIONS. RELATIVELY UNSETTLED WEATHER IS
LIKELY TO REMAIN THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK AS THIS LOW PRESSURE
CENTER REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN US INTO NEXT WEEKEND. DS
AVIATION...18Z UPDATE
MAINLY VFR IS EXPECTED FOR THE COAST TODAY.
COASTAL STRATUS HAS BEGUN TO REBUILD AND COULD IMPACT ACV AROUND
02Z. LIFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE NIGHT FOR NORTH COAST
TERMINALS. WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT <8KT THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. STRATUS IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS THROUGH SATURDAY MORNING
LEADING TO VFR CONDITIONS FOR THE NORTH COAST. INLAND TERMINALS CAN
ALSO EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT TO LOCALLY MODERATE TERRAIN-
DRIVEN WINDS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON.
MARINE
LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY
EARLY MORNING. THE WAVES WILL REMAIN DOMINATED BY A NORTHWEST
SWELL AND A MORE SOUTHERLY SWELL. THE NORTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 5
FEET AT 12 SECONDS WHILE THE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST SWELL IS AROUND 3
FEET AT 15 SECONDS.
SATURDAY MORNING, NORTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE
INTO THE WATERS. THESE ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST INCREASE IN THE
SOUTHERN WATERS AND THEN EXPAND NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY.
THESE ARE EXPECTED TO BE FAIRLY SHORTLIVED AND START TO DIMINISH
ON SUNDAY AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY NIGHT. LIGHTER WINDS ARE EXPECTED
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND THEY MAY BE SOUTHERLY. MID- WEEK NORTHERLY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE AGAIN. MKK
FIRE WEATHER
TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE THE HOTTEST AND DRIEST DAY
FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE NEXT 7-10DAYS. ERC VALUES WILL
REMAIN AT THE 80TH PERCENTILE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON LEADING TO
MODERATE TO HIGH FIRE DANGER. WINDS INLAND HAVE EASED HOWEVER.
OVER THE WEEKEND, A FAIRLY SIGNIFICANT COOLING TREND WILL TAKE
EFFECT AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS ASSOCIATE COLD FRONT IMPACT
NW CA. THIS WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A SLIGHTLY MORE UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE,
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED OVERNIGHT RECOVERIES.
WETTING RAIN IS NOT LIKELY, AROUND 20-30% FOR COASTAL AREAS OF
HUMBOLDT AND DEL NORTE COUNTY, YET THERE EXISTS A VERY SLIM CHANCE
OF SHOWERS ELSEWHERE. THAT SAID, RAIN ACCUMULATION WILL LIKELY BE
BELOW 0.10" AND SHOULD HAVE MINIMAL OPERATIONAL IMPACTS. COOL AND
MOIST WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE COMING WORK WEEK. DS
EKA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
CA...
NONE.
NORTHWEST CALIFORNIA COASTAL WATERS...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 3 PM SATURDAY TO 3 PM PDT SUNDAY
FOR PZZ470.
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 3 PM PDT
SUNDAY FOR PZZ475.
NOTE: THE FULL FORECAST DISCUSSION IS NOW REGULARLY ISSUED BETWEEN
10 AM/PM AND 1 PM/AM. ADDITIONAL UPDATES WILL BE ISSUED AS NEEDED.
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