413
FXUS64 KEWX 161737
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1137 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
ISSUED AT 103 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
A SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL JET STRENGTHENS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT. A WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND
BEGINS TODAY AND CONTINUES INTO SUNDAY. A PATTERN OF NIGHT INTO
MORNING LOW CLOUDS WITH AFTERNOON SUN AND ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES
CAN BE EXPECTED. THE INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND FORCING BY
THE LOW LEVEL JET LEADS TO STREAMER SHOWERS BY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
EASTERN HILL COUNTRY TO ALONG AND EAST OF I-35, AS WELL AS OVER VAL
VERDE COUNTY. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DUE TO MODEST
CAPE AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED
JUST SW OF EL PASO BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH HREF DEPICTIONS OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER WEST TX SUNDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE BRIEFLY CUT OFF FROM THE PRIMARY POLAR JET, BUT IT
WILL LIFT NE QUICKLY AND REJOIN THE POLAR FLOW BY MONDAY EVENING.
OUR NW 2 COUNTIES COULD CATCH SOME OF THE LATE EVENING DEEPER DYNAMIC
INFLUENCED CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP, AND A DAY2 SLIGHT RISK IS POSTED FOR
THIS AREA BY THE SPC. EAST OF THIS AREA BREEZY INFLOW WINDS AND
MAINLY STREAMER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE DPROG/DT ANALYSIS OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS WEST OF TX, THE LIFTING NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICKLY EVOLVING PATTERN FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL LINE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
FORMING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. BREAKS IN THE
SQUALL LINE ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO, BUT WITH THE
ECM/GFS/NAM/CMC MODELS ALL SHOWING A NEAR SOLID AREA OF QPF, WE THINK
90 PLUS POPS ARE REASONABLE WITH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OF 60-80
PERCENT ALONG I-37 SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR
RAIN CHANCES UNFORTUNATELY DOES NOT EXTEND SW TO THE OUR
SOUTHERNMOST RIO GRANDE PLAINS COUNTIES WHERE CHANCES TAPER OFF TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ALSO LESS THAN OPTIMISTIC IS OUR OUTLOOK FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY.
ANY AREA LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME STREAMER ACTIVITY ON TOP OF THE
SQUALL LINE MIGHT SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE FORTUNATE TO GET 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH VALUES.
THE OVERNIGHT TO LATE MORNING PORTION OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX COULD REMAIN QUITE
STRONG, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE AUS METRO AREA TO THE N AND E IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. THE COVERAGE EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO FILL IN FARTHER
SOUTHWARD, BUT WE ALSO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS TRENDING DOWN FROM A
SQUALL LINE THAT BECOMES LESS INTENSE.
NEXT ON THE LIST OF CONCERNS IS SOME POSSIBLE WIND ISSUES IN THE WAKE
OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. WHILE IT APPEARS THE DAYTIME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH TOO QUICKLY FOR A WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT, THERE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THE HILL COUNTRY NOT RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT ARRIVING INTO OUR NW COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING AND
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING AN END TO OUR SUMMERLIKE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF AUTUMN. THE MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LESS
DOWNSLOPING VERSUS THE PRIOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMALS FOR TWO DAYS AND ONLY ALLOWING A NEAR
NORMAL MAX ON FRIDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FINALLY A POINT OF DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WE ARE SHOWING MOST AREAS COMFORTABLY ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND BLACKLAND PRAIRIES
AREAS EAST OF AUS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO 32 DEGREES. THE CHILLY
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
LONG TERM
(SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
UPPER TROUGH DIGGING TOWARD NORTHERN MEXICO TODAY WILL BE POSITIONED
JUST SW OF EL PASO BY MIDNIGHT MONDAY MORNING WITH HREF DEPICTIONS OF
SEVERAL ROUNDS OF PRECIPITATION OVER WEST TX SUNDAY EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL BE BRIEFLY CUT OFF FROM THE PRIMARY POLAR JET, BUT IT
WILL LIFT NE QUICKLY AND REJOIN THE POLAR FLOW BY MONDAY EVENING.
OUR NW 2 COUNTIES COULD CATCH SOME OF THE LATE EVENING DEEPER DYNAMIC
INFLUENCED CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT WHERE SOME LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS COULD DEVELOP, AND A DAY2 SLIGHT RISK IS POSTED FOR
THIS AREA BY THE SPC. EAST OF THIS AREA BREEZY INFLOW WINDS AND
MAINLY STREAMER SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED WITH AN ISOLATED BRIEF
THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE.
WHILE THE DPROG/DT ANALYSIS OF THE TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW HAS TRENDED
DEEPER WHILE THE UPPER LOW REMAINS WEST OF TX, THE LIFTING NE TOWARD
THE GREAT LAKES REGION REMAINS ON TRACK. THIS MEANS WE SHOULD SEE A
QUICKLY EVOLVING PATTERN FOR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY EARLY MONDAY
MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON. A SQUALL LINE HAS A GOOD CHANCE OF
FORMING OVER THE HILL COUNTRY AFTER MIDNIGHT, WITH THE LEADING EDGE
OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REACH THE I-35 CORRIDOR BY 12Z. BREAKS IN THE
SQUALL LINE ARE LIKELY SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO, BUT WITH THE
ECM/GFS/NAM/CMC MODELS ALL SHOWING A NEAR SOLID AREA OF QPF, WE THINK
90 PLUS POPS ARE REASONABLE WITH MAYBE SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES OF 60-80
PERCENT ALONG I-37 SOUTH OF SAN ANTONIO. THIS OPTIMISTIC SCENARIO FOR
RAIN CHANCES UNFORTUNATELY DOES NOT EXTEND SW TO THE OUR
SOUTHERNMOST RIO GRANDE PLAINS COUNTIES WHERE CHANCES TAPER OFF TO
LESS THAN 20 PERCENT. ALSO LESS THAN OPTIMISTIC IS OUR OUTLOOK FOR
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AS THE SYSTEM WILL BE PASSING THROUGH QUICKLY.
ANY AREA LUCKY ENOUGH TO GET SOME STREAMER ACTIVITY ON TOP OF THE
SQUALL LINE MIGHT SEE 1-2 INCHES OF RAIN, BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD
BE FORTUNATE TO GET 1/4 TO 1/2 INCH VALUES.
THE OVERNIGHT TO LATE MORNING PORTION OF THE ORGANIZED CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TX COULD REMAIN QUITE
STRONG, AND IT LOOKS LIKE THERE COULD BE A CHANCE OF SEVERE WEATHER
FROM THE AUS METRO AREA TO THE N AND E IN THE LATE MORNING HOURS
MONDAY. THE COVERAGE EAST OF I-35 CONTINUES TO FILL IN FARTHER
SOUTHWARD, BUT WE ALSO SEE RAINFALL TOTALS TRENDING DOWN FROM A
SQUALL LINE THAT BECOMES LESS INTENSE.
NEXT ON THE LIST OF CONCERNS IS SOME POSSIBLE WIND ISSUES IN THE WAKE
OF THE ASSOCIATED FRONT. WHILE IT APPEARS THE DAYTIME MIXING OF
STRONGER WINDS ALOFT WILL BE PASSING THROUGH TOO QUICKLY FOR A WIND
ADVISORY LEVEL EVENT, THERE COULD BE AN ISSUE WITH FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS SHOULD THE HILL COUNTRY NOT RECEIVE A WETTING RAIN.
LOCALLY ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS COULD ALSO OCCUR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON WITH BREEZY WEST WINDS AND THE BEGINNINGS OF THE STRONGER
COLD FRONT ARRIVING INTO OUR NW COUNTIES TUESDAY EVENING AND
SPREADING TO THE REST OF THE AREA WEDNESDAY.
THIS FRONT WILL HOPEFULLY BRING AN END TO OUR SUMMERLIKE PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF AUTUMN. THE MUCH LONGER PERIOD OF GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND LESS
DOWNSLOPING VERSUS THE PRIOR COLD FRONT SHOULD BRING DAILY HIGH
TEMPERATURES TO BELOW NORMALS FOR TWO DAYS AND ONLY ALLOWING A NEAR
NORMAL MAX ON FRIDAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY, THE MUCH ANTICIPATED FIRST
FREEZE OF THE SEASON IS FINALLY A POINT OF DISCUSSION FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. AT THIS TIME WE ARE SHOWING MOST AREAS COMFORTABLY ABOVE
FREEZING, BUT VALLEYS OF THE HILL COUNTRY AND BLACKLAND PRAIRIES
AREAS EAST OF AUS COULD GET VERY CLOSE TO 32 DEGREES. THE CHILLY
NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES SHOULD CARRY OVER INTO NEXT WEEKEND.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1136 AM CST SAT NOV 16 2024
MORNING STRATUS HAS SCATTERED OUT TO START THE 18Z TAF PERIOD WITH
SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG THE I-35 CORRIDOR WHERE STRATUS WAS ABSENT.
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE FIRST 12
HOURS OF THIS TAF CYCLE BEFORE THE IMPACTS OF AN APPROACHING UPPER
LOW START TO BE FELT AT THE TERMINALS.
AFTER 09Z, LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL HELP IN THE FORMATION OF AN MVFR TO
IFR STRATUS DECK DEVELOPMENT FOR ALL TERMINAL. STREAMER SHOWERS ALSO
CAN'T BE RULED OUT FOR THE I-35 TERMINAL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY BUT
CONFIDENCE IN TIMING IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE A MENTION THIS ISSUANCE.
MODELS SHOW THE OVERNIGHT STRATUS PERSISTING TO 16Z AND 18Z BEFORE
IMPROVING. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE KDRT WHICH COULD REMAIN MVFR/IFR
WELL PAST THE END OF THIS TAF CYCLE.
THE 30 HOUR TAF SITES MIGHT SEE ISOLATED CONVECTION DEVELOP AFTER
18Z SUNDAY. MODELS SHOWS THE BETTER CHANCES AREA WOULD BE FOR KAUS
SO HAVE INSERTED A PROB30 GROUP. CHANCES LOOKED BETTER FOR KSAT
AFTER 00Z MONDAY SO LEFT MENTION OUT FOR THIS ISSUANCE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 80 64 83 67 / 0 10 30 80
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 81 62 84 67 / 0 10 40 70
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 84 63 86 69 / 0 0 20 80
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 77 62 81 64 / 0 0 30 90
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 82 66 82 62 / 0 0 10 60
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 79 63 81 65 / 0 10 40 80
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 80 62 85 66 / 0 0 10 80
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 81 62 85 67 / 0 10 30 70
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 81 65 84 70 / 0 10 70 50
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 81 64 84 68 / 0 0 20 80
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 82 63 86 70 / 0 0 10 70
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...36
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.
Main Text Page