275
FXUS64 KEWX 171723
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1123 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
..NEW AVIATION
SHORT TERM
(TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 200 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
A STRENGTHENING SOUTHERLY LOWER LEVEL JET AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
MID LEVEL TROUGH AND PACIFIC FRONT ALLOWS A WARMING AND MOISTENING
TREND TO CONTINUE TODAY. THE INCREASED LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE AND
FORCING BY THE LOW LEVEL JET LEADS TO STREAMER SHOWERS THAT SPREAD
FROM THE US 77 CORRIDOR THIS MORNING TO ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR
INTO THE HILL COUNTRY AND VAL VERDE COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON INTO
EVENING. CANNOT RULE OUT A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO DUE TO MODEST CAPE
AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES THIS AFTERNOON INTO EVENING. ABOVE AVERAGE
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE.
THE MID LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS PLAINS STATES BY
MONDAY. THIS DRAGS THE PACIFIC FRONT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, RIO
GRANDE PLAINS, AND MUCH OF THE HILL COUNTRY OVERNIGHT, THEN ACROSS
THE I-35 CORRIDOR TO THE COASTAL PLAINS AND US 77 CORRIDOR MONDAY
MORNING TO MIDDAY. FORCING BY THE FRONT WILL GENERATE A LINE OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A THUNDERSTORM OR TWO AHEAD OF THE
LINE. ALTHOUGH MODEST MLCAPE (400-800 J/KG) AND MID LEVEL LAPSE
RATES (6-7 C/KM) REMAIN, LOW LEVEL (SFC-6 KM) SHEAR INCREASES
SIGNIFICANTLY TO 50-65 KTS LEADING TO A POSSIBILITY OF A FEW STRONG
TO MARGINALLY SEVERE STORMS. STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE THE MAIN THREAT.
WHILE THERE IS A THREAT ACROSS THE EDWARDS PLATEAU, HILL COUNTRY,
AND CENTRAL TEXAS, THE BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE NORTH
OF OUR AREA. IT MUST BE NOTED THAT SIMULATED REFLECTIVITIES AMONG
THE VARIOUS MODELS ARE MUCH LESS BULLISH ON SEVERE STORMS.
IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, A MUCH DRIER AND SLIGHTLY COOLER
AIRMASS SURGES INTO OUR AREA ON MONDAY. A COMBINATION OF LOW
HUMIDITIES AND BREEZY/GUSTY WINDS MAY BRING ELEVATED TO NEAR
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS MONDAY AFTERNOON.
LONG TERM
(MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 239 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
WINDS SHOULD BE QUICK TO DECOUPLE BY MONDAY EVENING IN THE WAKE OF
THE PACIFIC COLD FRONT. THIS PLUS CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR THAT MOVED
IN WILL LEAD TO SOME CHILLY LOWS IN THE 40S TO LOW 50S WHICH IS JUST
UNDER CLIMATE NORMALS THIS TIME OF YEAR. THE CONTINUED WESTERLY WINDS
AND A WELL MIXED AIRMASS WITH STRONGER WESTERLIES ALOFT SHOULD HELP
BRING ABOUT ANOTHER WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURE DAY FOR TUESDAY.
THIS IMPACT WILL BE LESS NOTICEABLE OVER N/NW COUNTIES AS THERE WILL
BE MORE OF A CAA COMPONENT IN NW WINDS THAT WILL PRECEDE THE NEXT
STRONGER COLD FRONT TO ARRIVE TUESDAY NIGHT. BREEZY AND DRY
CONDITIONS COULD RAISE FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AT LEAST TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, AND PERHAPS TO A LESSER EXTENT LATER IN THE WEEK, AS NO
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS IN SIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.
EARLIER PROJECTIONS OF THE BROAD POLAR UPPER TROUGH THAT SWINGS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL CONUS MID-WEEK WERE FOR A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM
AND A SLOWER DEPARTURE. THE ECM TRENDS STILL HANG ON TO THIS IDEA AND
ARE SHOWING A NEAR FREEZING TEMPERATURE OVER KAUS FOR THURSDAY
MORNING. THUS WE'LL CONTINUE TO VOICE OUR CONCERNS FOR A POTENTIAL
FIRST FREEZE EVENT FOR A FEW PROTECTED VALLEYS OVER NORTHERN
COUNTIES, BUT KEEP THE GRIDS AS SHOWING COLDEST TEMPERATURES AROUND
34. AFTER THURSDAY MORNING, A MOSTLY FLAT PATTERN ALOFT WITH RISING
HEIGHTS LATE IN THE WEEK WILL BRING BACK A WARMING TREND WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS RESPONDING FASTER THAN THE MORNING LOWS GIVEN CLEAR SKIES AND
DRY AIR. NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS TO HAVE A RETURN OF WARMER THAN NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR HIGHS AND NEAR NORMAL MIN TEMPERATURES. INCREASING
HUMIDITIES ARE NOT EXPECTED UNTIL NEXT SUNDAY.
AVIATION
(18Z TAFS)
ISSUED AT 1121 AM CST SUN NOV 17 2024
SKIES ARE CLEARING IN THE EAST OVER THE I-35 CORRIDOR WITH CEILINGS
CONTINUING TO LIFT IN THE WEST THROUGH MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. VFR
CONDITIONS WILL THEN BRIEFLY BE SEEN ACROSS THE AREA BEFORE SHOWERS
AND MVFR TO LOCALLY IFR CEILINGS RETURN AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT.
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FORM IN A LINE AS MOVE EAST ACROSS THE AREA
OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY MORNING. CONTINUED PROB30 FOR TSRA FOR THE
BEST TIMING FOR THIS LINE TO IMPACT TERMINALS. SE WINDS INCREASE TO
10 TO 15 KTS TODAY, THEN 10 TO 20 KTS AND GUSTY THIS EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT. IN WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE, SKIES BECOME VFR AND
WINDS SHIFT TO SW-W AT 10 TO 20 KTS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 85 64 80 53 / 20 60 80 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 85 66 80 51 / 20 50 80 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 82 52 / 10 50 80 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 82 61 75 50 / 10 80 90 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 80 61 80 52 / 10 60 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 82 63 77 52 / 20 50 90 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 86 64 77 49 / 0 80 70 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 85 65 80 49 / 10 50 80 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 85 69 82 49 / 30 30 80 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 86 66 78 54 / 10 70 80 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 87 67 80 53 / 0 60 80 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT-TERM...04
LONG-TERM...18
AVIATION...27
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