542
FXUS64 KEWX 132325
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
625 PM CDT SAT SEP 13 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- DAYTIME TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE WEEKEND
AND NEXT WEEK.
- LOW CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE SUNDAY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY)
WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING ALOFT ARE COMBINING TO
MAINTAIN QUIET AND WARM WEATHER TODAY ACROSS SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. A
FEW OF THE HI-RES CAMS SUGGEST A FEW SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
COASTAL PLAINS AND I-35 CORRIDOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING,
BUT ANY RAIN WILL LIKELY BE BRIEF. AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH AXIS IS
CURRENTLY MOVING ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND IS EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER THE
TEXAS PANHANDLE TONIGHT, HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWERS AND
STORMS. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL OCCUR TO OUR WEST AND WEAKEN AS
IT ENCOUNTERS THE DRIER AIR ALOFT OVER OUR AREA, BUT A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS COULD REACH THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS PLATEAU AND RIO
GRANDE SUNDAY MORNING, WITH SOME DEVELOPMENT SUNDAY AFTERNOON WITHIN
A RESIDUAL CORRIDOR OF MODEST INSTABILITY. AFTER BEING SQUEEZED
SLIGHTLY BY THE PASSING TROUGH, THE RIDGE RESTRENGTHENS MONDAY OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO AND MUTES THE RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA. SKIES WILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR IN THE SHORT TERM, THOUGH THERE COULD BE PLENTY OF
CIRRUS ON SUNDAY AS THE UPPER TROUGH SWINGS BY. ABOVE AVERAGE HIGHS
IN THE MID 90S AND MILD BUT NEAR AVERAGE LOWS IN THE MID 60S TO LOW
70S ARE FORECAST THROUGH MONDAY AND THROUGH THE WEEK.
LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)
STEADY WEATHER IS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS RIDGING PERSISTS OVER
OUR AREA. HIGHS AND LOWS LOOK TO HAVE ONLY MINOR DAY-TO-DAY
VARIATION, MAINTAINING ABOVE AVERAGE WARMTH IN THE DAYTIME AND
AVERAGE MILDNESS AT NIGHT. THE RIDGE DOES WEAKEN SLIGHTLY WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY AS AN UPPER TROUGH PASSES BY WELL TO OUR NORTH OVER
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN PLAINS. THIS SLIGHTLY NUDGES THE CHANCE OF
AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER UPWARDS MAINLY OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS
AND RIO GRANDE PLAINS ON THOSE DAYS, BUT GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS
LOOK TO PREVAIL FOR MOST.
AVIATION (00Z SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ONGOING SHRA AND TSRA ACTIVITY ACROSS THE TRANS PECOS AND WEST
TEXAS WILL MOVE EAST TONIGHT TOWARD THE SOUTHERN EDWARDS
PLATEAU. EVENTUALLY THE CONVECTION IS FORECAST TO DECAY AND
DISSIPATE, BUT COULD APPROACH DRT IN A WEAKENED STATE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. AT THIS TIME CONFIDENCE IS TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN
THE DRT TAF. OTHERWISE, VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD,
WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A PERIOD OF MVFR CEILINGS IN BKN STRATUS
09Z-15Z NEAR A ERV-SAT LINE WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 96 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 95 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 69 96 70 95 / 0 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 91 70 91 / 0 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 76 92 74 94 / 10 20 0 10
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 94 70 93 / 0 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 94 69 94 / 0 0 0 10
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 97 69 96 / 0 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 69 94 70 94 / 0 10 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 95 72 95 / 0 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 97 73 96 / 0 0 0 10
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...76
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