422
FXUS64 KEWX 142333
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
633 PM CDT SUN SEP 14 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- ABOVE NORMAL AFTERNOON HIGHS CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEK.
- LOW END CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE
TODAY.
- LOW CHANCES FOR ISOLATED RAINS CONTINUE DURING THE WEEK, BUT
MOST WILL LIKELY REMAIN DRY.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT)
A LOW-PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ATTENDANT MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH ARE
CURRENTLY THE PROCESS OF EJECTING NORTHEAST OUT OF THE ROCKIES AND
INTO THE HIGH PLAINS. BROAD ASCENT SOUTH OF THE OUTGOING TROUGH AND
AFTERNOON HEATING ARE ENABLING THE DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG THE RIO GRANDE AND SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DO SO INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING, THOUGH
CHANCES ARE LOW AND COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO BE SPARSE. ELSEWHERE
ACROSS SOUTH- CENTRAL TEXAS, RESIDUAL RIDGING ALOFT IS HELPING
TO MAINTAIN DRY AND WARM WEATHER. TONIGHT LOOKS A DEGREE MORE
MILD THAN PREVIOUS NIGHTS AS A MINOR SURGE OF MOISTURE KEEPS
LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOW 70S.
ON MONDAY, MODELS INDICATE A WEAK INVERTED 700MB TROUGH TRACKING
EAST TO WEST INTO OUR AREA. THIS BRINGS SOME COOLING JUST ABOVE A
DEEP MIXED LAYER, WHICH COULD SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWERS AND A SPOTTY
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE COASTAL PLAINS TO I-35 CORRIDOR MONDAY
AFTERNOON TO MONDAY EVENING. THIS POTENTIAL IS REFLECTED IN THE HREF
AND EXPERIMENTAL REFS ENSEMBLES, AND LOW-END 15% POPS HAVE BEEN
ADDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS. STILL, BROADER
RIDGING OVER THE AREA WILL REDUCE SYNOPTIC FORCING FOR ASCENT, SO
ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ISOLATED AND WILL LIKELY COME TO AN END BY
SUNSET, IF NOT EARLIER. DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREVAIL
FOR MOST MONDAY, WITH HIGHS AGAIN IN THE LOW TO MID 90S. LOWS MONDAY
NIGHT ARE FORECAST TO BE IN THE MID 60S TO AROUND 70, COMING DOWN A
FEW DEGREES AS MARGINALLY DRIER CONTINENTAL AIR REACHES OUR
AREA.
LONG TERM (TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)
EXPECT VERY SIMILAR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK WITH
HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOW TO MID 90S AND LOWS IN THE UPPER 60S TO
LOW 70S ACROSS THE REGION. RIDGING STRENGTHENS SOME TUESDAY BUT THEN
WEAKENS AS ANOTHER TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND GREAT
PLAINS. THIS MAY RESULT IN AN INCREASED OPPORTUNITY FOR SOME LOWER
END RAIN CHANCES FOR OUR AREA AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE MAKES USE OF THE
REDUCED CAPPING ALOFT, THOUGH MOST OF THE TROUGH'S INFLUENCE WILL BE
FELT FARTHER NORTH. DAILY POPS UP TO ABOUT THE 20 PERCENT RANGE ARE
DEPICTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY, WITH CHANCES STARTING TO CREEP
INTO THE COASTAL PLAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND SPREADING ACROSS THE
REST OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME OF THE MEDIUM-
RANGE MODELS BRING A WEAK SURFACE FRONT NEAR OUR AREA FRIDAY, THOUGH
IT HAS MINIMAL SIGNATURE ALOFT AND HAS LITTLE IMPACT ON THE WEATHER
HERE ASIDE FROM POSSIBLY BEING A SLIGHT FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS. THE TROUGH'S INFLUENCE MOVES FULLY OUT OF AREA BY THE
WEEKEND, LEADING TO A SWITCH BACK TO DRIER WEATHER.
AVIATION (00Z MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FOR MOST LOCATIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. HREF IS SHOWING A MUCH LOWER CHANCE OF MVFR CEILINGS
WITH STRATUS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY MORNING MORNING,
COMPARED TO PREVIOUS DAYS, AND THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN
THE TAFS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE (10-20%) OF ISOLATED SHRA
ACTIVITY LATE MONDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS TO THE
I-35 CORRIDOR. CHANCES ARE TOO LOW TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 72 94 71 95 / 0 10 10 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 71 94 69 95 / 0 10 10 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 70 94 68 95 / 0 10 10 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 70 90 69 90 / 0 10 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 74 94 72 93 / 10 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 70 93 69 93 / 0 10 10 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 69 93 68 93 / 0 0 10 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 69 95 67 95 / 0 10 10 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 70 93 66 94 / 0 20 0 0
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 93 71 94 / 0 10 10 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 73 95 71 96 / 0 10 10 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...TRAN
LONG TERM...TRAN
AVIATION...76
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