294
FXUS64 KEWX 152321 AAA
AFDEWX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
621 PM CDT MON SEP 15 2025
KEY MESSAGES
- REPEAT PATTERN OF ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MOSTLY STABLE
CONDITION CONTINUE THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD.
SHORT TERM (THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
A THIN AND RELATIVELY WEAK UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER TX CONNECT TWO
AREAS CONTAINING STRONGER RIDGE MAXIMA, ONE OVER THE GREAT LAKES
REGION AND ANOTHER OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND WEST TX. THE COASTAL
PRAIRIES HOLDS SOME HIGHER MOISTURE TODAY AND IS TAKING
ADVANTAGE OF THE RELATIVE UPPER RIDGE WEAKNESS TO FORM SOME
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. A DRIER AND MORE
STABLE ENVIRONMENT BUILDS OVER CENTRAL TX AT THE H7 LEVEL, AND
THIS SHOULD CURB RAIN CHANCES ALMOST ENTIRELY FOR TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. THE DRIER MIXED LAYER AIR MEANS FEWER CLOUDS WHICH
MIGHT SET UP TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY AS THE HOTTEST DAYS OF THE
NEXT WEEK BUT NOT BY MUCH.
LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY)
LATE IN THE WORK WEEK, THERE CONTINUES TO BE A WEAK RIDGE AXIS
DRAPED SW TO NE OVER TX BUT WITH A SLIGHTLY MORE W/NW FLOW ALOFT
PATTERN OVER NORTH TX. THIS COULD PULL MORE GULF MOISTURE INLAND
AT LOWER LEVELS AND POSSIBLE BRING A MORE BROADER OPPORTUNITY
FOR SOME DIURNAL AIR-MASS TYPE STORMS. THURSDAY'S GUIDANCE
SUGGEST MAINLY JUST OUR FAR SOUTHERN COUNTIES FOR LATE THURSDAY,
BUT EXPANDED FOR ALL AREAS FOR EACH SUBSEQUENT DAYTIME AND
AFTERNOON PERIOD GOING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE IMPACT ON
TEMPERATURES WILL BE MINOR, WITH MAYBE A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
THAN THE SHORT-TERM TEMPS ON HIGHS, AND HARDLY ANY NOTICEABLE
CHANGE ON THE MIN TEMPS. HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD CONTINUE TO
BLANKET SOUTH CENTRAL TX, BUT A FEW NOCTURNAL STORMS MIGHT
THREATEN TO GET INTO THE AREA IN THE LATE EVENINGS.
MODEL DPROG/DT TRENDS FORECAST FOR NEXT WEEK AS OF TODAY HAVE
THE ECM/GFS/CMC ALL GOING TOWARD A MORE UNSTABLE FORECAST FOR
CENTRAL TX AFTER MONDAY WITH EACH SHOWING A DEEPENING UPPER
TROUGH EITHER OVER TX OR JUST WEST OF THE STATE. THIS BEING THE
FIRST OF THE RUNS TO TREND IN THAT DIRECTION HAS US KEEPING WITH
THE LESS SHIFTY NBM SOLUTION UNTIL A FEW MORE THESE TYPE OF
RUNS CAN GET STACKED TOGETHER. SHOULD THIS BE A NEW TREND THAT
CONTINUES, WOULD COULD SEE THE MID WEEK RAIN CHANCES GO FULLY
INTO THE THE CHANCE CATEGORY AND TOWARD LIKELY AS WE GET CLOSER
THOSE FORECAST PERIODS.
AVIATION (23Z MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)
VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST FOR THE LOCAL AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. A SOUTHEAST FLOW IS FORECAST TO PERSIST
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS
OVERNIGHT.
PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS
AUSTIN CAMP MABRY 71 95 71 95 / 10 0 0 0
AUSTIN BERGSTROM INTL AIRPORT 69 95 69 95 / 10 0 0 0
NEW BRAUNFELS MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 68 95 / 10 0 0 0
BURNET MUNI AIRPORT 69 90 68 91 / 10 0 0 0
DEL RIO INTL AIRPORT 73 93 72 93 / 0 0 0 0
GEORGETOWN MUNI AIRPORT 69 93 70 94 / 10 0 0 0
HONDO MUNI AIRPORT 68 93 68 94 / 10 0 0 0
SAN MARCOS MUNI AIRPORT 68 95 68 96 / 10 0 0 0
LA GRANGE - FAYETTE REGIONAL 68 94 68 94 / 0 0 0 10
SAN ANTONIO INTL AIRPORT 72 93 71 94 / 10 0 0 0
STINSON MUNI AIRPORT 72 95 71 96 / 10 0 0 0
EWX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES
NONE.
SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM...17
AVIATION...27
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